Among the candidates for at large spots, all of the teams that needed to win....didn't. Virginia has now followed up their big win over Duke with two poor losses, yesterday's coming at the hands of Florida State. They can't afford a losing streak at this point, and their season finale with Maryland now becomes a must win game. Kentucky picked up their worst loss of the season at a stage they couldn't afford to lose. The at large situation for Kentucky is now simple in my eyes, beat Florida. If they don't do that, don't expect them to receive an at large. Massachusetts was really only on the watch list because they had the opportunity for big wins. Well, they didn't get it as they lost to Butler at home. Its not a bad loss, but they missed the big win and their miniscule hopes are now finished in my eyes. Butler snapped a mini-losing streak to do what they can to protect their seed. Louisiana Tech essentially ruined any chance they would have had at an at large if they failed to win the WAC as they dropped their first game in conference, losing to New Mexico State. They'll now need to plan on winning the conference tournament to make the field. In the Big Ten, Michigan State kept their hopes alive for a share of the regular season title with a win over Wisconsin. Both teams will be in the tournament, and Michigan State may get a small seed bump while Wisconsin may fall slightly. In the Pac-12, the race for the regular season title remains wide open as Oregon fell to Colorado. Both teams are in the tournament and playing for seed at this point, but Oregon could have clinched the outright Pac-12 title if they had won out. They will now need to win on Saturday against Utah to get at least a share, but a win in that game would clinch the top seed in the Pac-12 tournament.
This will likely be the last day I'll have the time to hit the game by game analysis in the tournaments, as moving forward the games get bigger, more important, and we're going to start having a clearer picture of what the tournament field will look like. I will still throw my predictions and previews out there, but the bulk of my analysis is going to be on the results. But keep on reading for the Southern Conference and Sun Belt tournament previews. And if you're looking for the MAAC preview, which also starts today, check yesterday's post.
---hit the jump for today's conference tournament previews---
The Southern Conference tournament will take place in its entirely at a neutral site in Asheville, North Carolina. All twelve teams in the conference will be participating in the tournament, and all twelve teams will need the automatic bid in order to make the NCAA Tournament. There are no at large candidates here. Davidson comes in as the favorite, at 17-1 in conference and the top seed overall. They are the best offense in the conference, as they score the most points per game, shoot the best from the floor, from three, and from free throws. That is an impressive offense, but I'm also going to add in they also turn the ball over the least of anyone in the conference. There is a reason Davidson is the favorite, and no question it will be an upset if they do not take the automatic bid. But the games still have to be played, and until eliminated all teams remain alive for the automatic berth. Keep on reading for my prediction on how this conference will play out.
My Predictions:
First Round Analysis:
Wofford has a shaky offense, but plays pretty good defense as they have held a number of teams to low point totals this year. In two games against Georgia Southern, they have held them to an average of 50 points per game in two wins. Wofford should be able to control this game on the defensive end to advance.
Furman only has six wins all season. They lost to Samford at home by double digits in the middle of February and haven't won at all since January. Samford to advance.
UNC-Greensboro has only won once in their last seven games, but that one win was a 26 point victory on the road at Chattanooga. They won twice in games against them this season and neither have been all too close. I like Greensboro's chances to get a third and move on here.
In their only meeting of the season, Western Carolina went on the road and beat Citadel by 17. They should be able to win again on a neutral court and advance.
Quarterfinals Analysis:
I've said plenty already about Davidson's offense, but I'll throw in a 14 game winning streak and two wins over Wofford already this season. Davidson moves on here.
Samford and Appalachian State split this year, the most recent coming in double overtime for an Appalachian State win at home, a game Samford led by eight with four minutes to go. Move to a neutral site and Samford should have an easier time closing out a game like that, and I think they'll handle Appalachian State to move on.
Elon beat UNC Greensboro to close out the regular season by 14, and is 12-3 in their last fifteen games. Greensboro has had a difficult time beating anyone except for Chattanooga recently. This appears to be a lopsided match up and Elon should take advantage.
In their last twelve conference games, the only losses Charleston has had have come to Davidson. They're playing really well at a crucial point in the season and should be able to use that momentum to advance by Western Carolina, a team they beat on Western Carolina's home court only a couple weeks ago.
Semifinals Analysis:
Davidson has not had much trouble in conference this year, and Samford certainly wasn't one of the teams to give them trouble, with Davidson winning by 20 in their only meeting this year. No reason to think Samford springs the upset this time around.
A matchup of two teams that have ended the season very strong, their only meeting of the year came way back in early December with Charleston winning by two at Elon. I think Charleston advances in this matchup as well, as they should have an advantage on the boards and defensive end to hold Elon at bay.
Championship Game Analysis:
No surprises coming here. Davidson controls this conference and is superior to everyone else. Charleston has faced them twice and lost both times this season, and Davidson is the deserving recipient of the Southern Conference's automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Non-Predicted Dark Horse:
I'm having a hard time seeing any of the lower seeds make a run. Even the fourth best record in this conference has eight losses, but if I had to give any team a chance it would be Samford. Besides their 20 point loss to Davidson, which could happen to anyone in this conference, Samford has played everyone close. Not counting Davidson, only one of their other eight losses has been by more than four points. If they can turn more close games into wins, they could be the ones to get through.
The Sun Belt conference tournament will be held in Hot Springs, Arkansas at a neutral site. Middle Tennessee State will be the favorite all the way, but should they fail to take the automatic bid they could remain in the hunt for an at large. They have no guarantees of an at large bid, so they'll need the automatic bid if they want to feel safe on Selection Sunday, but a bid thief potential is out there if someone else can win the Sun Belt tournament, it would be possible for two teams to get in from the Sun Belt, taking an at large spot away from someone else in the country. Much as we saw with Davidson earlier, Middle Tennessee is the best offensive team in the conference by far. They lead in points per game, three point shooting, and field goal percentage. And on top of that, they are likely the best defensive team in the conference as well. They have only allowed more than 64 points in regulation twice all season, and never in conference. It would be a significant upset if they did not manage to win the tournament, but until they lose every other team in the conference remains in contention for the automatic bid. See below for my prediction on how this one will play out.
My Predictions:
First Round Analysis:
Louisiana-Lafayette has a decent offense at about 70 points per game on the year, but in two games against North Texas this season they have averaged 92.5 points....in regulation. I don't think North Texas can stop them and Louisiana-Lafayette advances.
Troy has only won once in their last eight games and has lost five straight. Additionally, Florida Atlantic has already beat them twice this year and this should be a third.
Louisiana Monroe has only beaten one team since January 1st and won four games all year. Western Kentucky shouldn't have any problems here to advance.
Quarterfinals Analysis:
A complete reversal from their first round, Louisiana Lafayette has only averaged 59 points in their two games against Middle Tennessee State this year. They won't be able to break down this defense enough and Middle Tennessee should advance.
Florida International and Arkansas-Little Rock have split this season, with each team winning on their home court. This should be a close game as Arkansas Little Rock has the better defense, but Florida International has the better offense. In a close match up, I like the defense of Little Rock to get the better of Florida International and advance.
They have split this season, but in the most recent meeting Florida Atlantic only managed to score 38 total points against Arkansas State. They may get some improvement this time but Arkansas State's defense should be able to keep them in check enough to move on.
South Alabama and Western Kentucky have split this season, each winning at home. On a neutral court I think these two teams are very similar, but South Alabama is coming in with some momentum, only losing twice in their past eight games. I think they'll carry that momentum into this game to advance here.
Semifinals Analysis:
Middle Tennessee State is in the midst of a 16 game winning streak heading into the tournament, including two over Arkansas-Little Rock this season. They are the better team on both offense and defense and I don't see the upset here, Middle Tennessee to the final.
Arkansas State has done something no one else in this conference has - Beat Middle Tennessee State. They're a good team, and they've also swept South Alabama this year. They should be able to continue that streak into the final.
Championship Game Analysis:
Despite the earlier win this season over Middle Tennessee, Arkansas State is severely outmatched here. Middle Tennessee State has not lost since that game, and the best team in the conference should make the field with the automatic bid. I don't see any surprises happening in this one.
Non-Predicted Dark Horse:
Anyone remember what Western Kentucky did last year? Maybe not, but they rode the seven seed to the conference championship and took the automatic bid after going 7-9 in conference. They have a better team this year, and many of the same players are back. Experience and leadership is often the key to making a run, and this team certainly has that. Why not again this year?
---
Games of Note - Friday Edition
Teams in bold represent at large candidates.
Southern Conference Tournament Game - Georgia Southern vs Wofford - 11:30am ET - ESPN3
Southern Conference Tournament Game - Furman vs Samford - 2:00pm ET - ESPN3
Southern Conference Tournament Game - UNC Greensboro vs Chattanooga - 6:00pm ET - ESPN3
Southern Conference Tournament Game - Citadel vs Western Carolina - 8:30pm ET - ESPN3
Missouri Valley Tournament Game - Drake vs Creighton - 1:05pm ET - ESPN3
Missouri Valley Tournament Game - Indiana State vs Evansville - 1:05pm ET - ESPN3
Missouri Valley Tournament Game - Missouri State vs Wichita State - 7:05pm ET - ESPN3
Missouri Valley Tournament Game - Illinois State vs Northern Iowa - 9:30pm ET - ESPN3
Atlantic Sun Tournament Game - USC Upstate vs Mercer - 5:30pm ET - ESPN3
Atlantic Sun Tournament Game - Stetson vs Florida Gulf Coast - 8:00pm ET - ESPN3
Horizon League Tournament Game - Youngstown State vs Wright State - 6:00pm ET - ESPN3
Horizon League Tournament Game - Illinois-Chicago vs Green Bay - 8:30pm ET - ESPN3
Ohio Valley Tournament Game - Tennessee State vs Belmont - 7:00pm ET - ESPNU
Ohio Valley Tournament Game - Murray State vs Eastern Kentucky - 9:00pm ET - ESPN3
WCC Tournament Game - San Diego vs BYU - 9:30pm ET - ESPNU
WCC Tournament Game - Loyola Marymount vs Santa Clara - 11:30pm ET - ESPNU
MAAC Tournament Game - Siena vs Marist - 7:30pm ET
MAAC Tournament Game - St Peters vs Fairfield - 9:30pm ET
Sun Belt Tournament Game - Louisiana Monroe vs Western Kentucky - 7:00pm ET
Sun Belt Tournament Game - North Texas vs Louisiana Lafayette - 7:30pm ET
Sun Belt Tournament Game - Troy vs Florida Atlantic - 9:30pm ET
Ivy League Contender - Princeton vs Yale - 7:00pm ET
Ivy League Contender - Harvard vs Columbia - 7:00pm ET
No comments:
Post a Comment