Initial:
Final:
The obvious difference here is going to be the final four. Between Sunday and Wednesday I changed my mind on three of them. My rationale there:
- Early in the season I had pegged Duke as the best team in the country. They were consistently playing the other top ranked teams, and winning. Then Ryan Kelly went down and they started losing and I essentially wrote them off. I gave them a second look when he came back, but they lost to Maryland in the ACC Tournament and I wrote them off again. I never want to judge a team based on one game, and this Duke team should be more like the team I liked (as a chance to win, not in any terms of fandom) at the beginning of the year. This is a match up that is more worthy of a final than an elite 8, but so be it. I changed to Duke for 1 - I think with Ryan Kelly they they're a significant contender and have the same team that beat Louisville earlier in the season (yes I know Louisville didn't have Gorgui Dieng in that game, I don't care, Duke as a team shoots over 40% from three, they still won that game shooting 5-20) and 2 - everyone is picking Louisville. My biggest tip to winning a large pool is find the best place to differentiate your bracket and go with it. Here it is.
- I flipped between Georgetown and Florida over and over this week. Initially I went with Florida because of the numbers. They have a top offense and a top defense according to adjusted efficiency ratings. That right there screams title contender. But they also have injuries, coming out of a historically bad SEC, and haven't shown any ability to close out close games. Georgetown's defense will keep this game close and that has been trouble for Florida all season (remember when they couldn't score a basket in the final 7:30 against Kentucky to lose? Georgetown's defense could do that all game). I'm not sure how much playing in the SEC skewed Florida's numbers, they're clearly a good team but they haven't played a truly top opponent in quite some time. Georgetown is more battle tested in the SEC and defensively is one of the best in the country. I've got Michigan waiting in the elite 8, but it was the winner of this game that I had on the track to the final four, and ultimately I feel better about Georgetown.
- I decided pretty early in the week I was giving Wisconsin too much credit for their run through the Big Ten tournament. After all, this is a team that got stomped at home against Purdue just a few days before the Big Ten tournament. I just didn't think Gonzaga was going to make a run. So I went with a different approach. Pittsburgh is a team I feel got underseeded, and very much at Gonzaga's expense. I had them closer to a 5 or 6 in my projections, and in thinking about that, if Pitt was a 5 seed and met Gonzaga in the sweet 16, I would have taken Pitt without any second thought. So here we are, just a round earlier. Same principle applies, Pitt is the worst match up Gonzaga could have asked for and I think that will lead to an early exit. And under the same principles, I moved Pitt past Wisconsin. New Mexico is a team I've loved all season, and I don't think the Mountain West gets enough attention. They historically have not fared well in the tournament, but this is the best team that has come out of the Mountain West in years. They play solid defense and have a very efficient offense. At no point do they have to travel too far from home, and they can take advantage of some favorable matchups en route to the final 4.
The other changes you'll see aren't quite as significant. Under principle I will always take a 12 seed in at least the first round. None really stood out to me, but Oregon as the underseeded Pac-12 Tournament Champs should give quite a fight to Oklahoma State (a team I also like a lot). I switched this to Oregon as it was essentially a tossup in my mind to begin with anyway. Memphis I don't care much for this year as they have not beaten a single team that made the tournament as an at large (Harvard is the only team in this field they have beat this year). Now that I know who they're playing, and despite not wanting St Mary's in the field to begin with, I think they got a good matchup and St Mary's moves on.
West:
I don't know what it is about Ohio State this year (its not the rivalry, I put them in the final four multiple times the past few years), but they rarely run away from teams and their offense at many times this season has come down to DeShaun Thomas, and no one else. I'm not in love with Notre Dame by any means, and they may be susceptible to a good defense, but if this game stays close and low scoring I like Notre Dame's chances a lot to pull off the upset.
South:
The only thing that changed here was my swap of Florida for Georgetown. But while we're here, I might as well address Michigan. Once again, its more than just fandom, Michigan is the one team I have seen every single game this season. I know what they are capable of, and they are certainly capable of making a run through this tournament. They have one of the best offenses in the country and when they start clicking can beat anyone else. Kansas has played too many close games this season, some losses some they just scraped by, and I don't think scraping by is enough against a team as explosive as Michigan. Granted, it completely depends which Michigan team shows up, but I moved them into the elite eight based on their potential, plus a Kansas team that has been less than impressive in my eyes at many times this season. Once in the elite eight, I enacted my principle rule to separate my bracket from my fandom. I will remain a Michigan fan until they are out of the tournament, but should they fall I can at least continue rooting for my bracket. Its not the best method, but the defense that either Florida or Georgetown could bring to that game could create problems for Michigan's talented offense, and the way they have played against strong defenses this year, and the way their own defense has played at times this year, my head tells me to go with the defensive team.
East:
The changes here came with Miami-Marquette and UNLV-Syracuse. For Miami, the games that stuck in my head were Wake Forest and Georgia Tech most recently. But I don't think that is a good indicator of this actual Miami team. This is a good team, that sometimes plays bad games. More regularly than other top teams perhaps, but they have the ability to beat any top team. And in all honesty, I don't consider Marquette to be one of those top teams. They have had a good year, but have played so many close games. At some point it could catch up to them, possibly against Davidson, or against Butler/Bucknell (I considered the Bucknell over Marquette upset, but ultimately stayed away), and by the time they get to this game, while both teams have faults, it came down to the probability that Miami would still be alive was greater than Marquette's in my eyes. I changed this to Miami merely as the safest option as I didn't feel great about any of the teams in this part of the bracket. Syracuse and UNLV was close in my head to begin with, but what ultimately caused the switch was the location of the game. I'm not sure what to think about Syracuse at the end of the year. Stumbled a lot down the stretch, picked it up in the Big East tournament before laying an egg in the second half of the championship. So, I found this game with the possibility of going either way. Playing on the west coast should benefit UNLV more than Syracuse. So when it comes to a toss up, I decided to stick with the team closer to home.
Champion:
No changes here. I love Indiana's path to the final. A team that does so much well without many roadblocks in front of them...there wasn't anyone in their region that I liked enough to even consider an upset. I've felt confident about Indiana's chances of just making the final since the bracket was released on Sunday, it is hard to change that feeling when considering who will win. Indiana is my pick for this season's NCAA Tournament Champion.
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Now, as with every other year, my initial bracket will inevitably be the one I should have stuck with. But so be it, bring on the madness!
And as I said in a post earlier in this week, I appreciate all the support I've gotten with this blog. Much more than I ever anticipated. I will be spending the next few weeks transforming it into an all-round sports blog, and this coverage will continue with next year's basketball season. So please, check back occasionally over the next few weeks, as more will be coming soon.
And that is why you never ever ever change your initial instincts. We'll see what happens in the final four, but I never expected this sort of showing from Pitt this early in the tournament. Should've known better.
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