Well, a good week removed from the beginning of the tournament, sixteen teams remain left in the tournament and I would estimate even fewer people that remain happy with their brackets. It was inevitable this year it seemed, with so many top teams losing to unranked opponents throughout the year, that anything else could happen in this tournament. If you're like me, you'll have to take solace wherever you can. For instance, Gonzaga going out in the round of 32, totally called it. Just ignore the fact that I had Pitt making the run that Wichita State is currently on. Whatever most of us originally picked is irrelevant now, but there are 16 teams remaining, lets take a look at what is left.
Louisville and Oregon - I can't imagine too many people being surprised to see Louisville here, as about 1/3 of the world picked them as their national champion. And frankly I'm not completely surprised to see Oregon here either. I said from the beginning they were massively underseeded (my initial projections put them at a 7 seed) and I think they proved their point. I thought Saint Louis would be a team that could give Louisville trouble, but that apparently doesn't matter anymore. Louisville comes into this game as a 10 point favorite, and I think Oregon's run stops here. The way Louisville just shredded Colorado State I don't think Oregon can offer anything vastly different. I'd take Louisville by double digits here, but give Oregon a standing ovation for their efforts to this point.
Michigan State and Duke - This has the potential to be the best game of the round, or could end up as a landslide. Mason Plumlee is the potential x-factor here as the main inside presence for Duke. If he is up to the task of grabbing defensive rebounds and keeping the Spartans off the glass, Duke should win. If Michigan State can get second chances, the advantage swings their direction. At that point Duke will have to start hitting from outside to keep the game close. If they go cold from outside Michigan State could run away with it. But if they're hot from outside they have the potential to run away with it as well. So to recap, Duke hot from three plus strong on defensive rebounds equals big Duke win; Duke cold from three plus MSU strong on offensive rebounds equals big MSU win; Duke hot from three plus MSU strong on offensive rebounds or both the other way should create a pretty close game. I think Duke will pull this out, since I get a chance to actually refer back to my original bracket here.
Wichita State and La Salle - Anyone that tells me they predicted this matchup I will call a liar. Although if you actually did, major props to you. Since the second half against Pittsburgh, Wichita State has played like a different team than they did down the stretch in the Missouri Valley. Their defense has kept them in games when their offense struggled, and allowed them to win games when their offense clicked. La Salle is going to have to find a way to break down that defense to have a chance in this game. Ultimately I think Wichita State's run continues on the back of that defense, and if their offense clicks again the rout may be on, but not to take anything away from La Salle as they have done nothing but impress to get to this game.
Arizona and Ohio State - Ohio State comes in as the only top 5 seed remaining in this region, and their reward is traveling out to Los Angeles to play Arizona. This game reminds me a lot of the nailbiter Ohio State just won against Iowa State, except for the small detail that Arizona can defend significantly better than Iowa State. The weak point for Arizona is defending the three, so that is where Ohio State will need to be successful to move on. If they are not knocking down shots from outside I see Arizona winning this game, and in an environment that will feel much more like home for Arizona than Ohio State, that is what I predict will happen as Arizona moves on.
Kansas and Michigan - The way they have played so far, it feels like these seeds should be reversed. Kansas is coming in as a slight favorite, but for three out of the four halves of basketball they have played in this tournament, they have not looked like a top seed. Michigan on the other hand has shut down the offensive prowess of Nate Wolters and thrashed VCU. Kansas' star Ben McLemore has been completely absent so far in this tournament, and Michigan is getting production from everywhere. Most notably has been freshman Mitch McGary's dominance, but Glenn Robinson has also had a bit of a resurgence in addition to the normal reliability of Burke and Hardaway. With Michigan clicking on all cylinders I'll take the Wolverines here.
Florida and Florida Gulf Coast - It has been fun. Despite the fact they decimated my (final) bracket by upsetting Georgetown in the first round, watching Florida Gulf Coast's run so far has been thoroughly enjoyable. You can't help but root for them, but the run should stop here. Florida is too good on both sides of the ball to let Gulf Coast get any momentum. Florida should win by double digits, but that doesn't mean I won't be rooting for the run to continue.
Indiana and Syracuse - Indiana got a little bit of a test from Temple in their last game, while Syracuse had a bit of trouble with California before moving on. While we can applaud both team's ability not to wilt in the pressure of a close game, looking at this matchup only one thing stands out - Indiana looks to be built to play against the patented 2-3 zone Syracuse deploys on defense. At any time, Indiana can put four guys on the court that can shoot over the zone from three, and as soon as the zone expands they have one of the best big men in the country to step into the holes in the zone and play on the inside with Zeller. Indiana will have to hit their shots, but the shots will be there to hit. I like Indiana a lot in this game.
Marquette and Miami - How is Marquette here? They were dead to rights against Davidson in the first round, and all of a sudden a team that can't hit a three to save their life hits three in a row just to put themselves in a position for a buzzer beating layup. They needed another mini-comeback to get by Butler, but here they are. Miami had their own trouble with Illinois, but they should match up significantly better against this Marquette team. All credit due to Marquette for getting it done and making it here, but they are playing a team that won't let them come back this time, and Miami should move on to the elite 8.
2014!! Lets go!
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