Before continuing with the look at all conferences, there has been quite a lot that has happened over the past couple days that will impact the field. Lets take a quick look at the games that happened and their impact on the teams involved.
Wednesday, February 27 - Quite a lot of bubble impact and upsets today...
Michigan 78 at 84 Penn State - Ok, lets get this out of the way. I am doing this as unbiased as possible, but as a Michigan alum, this physically hurts. Penn State's upset over Michigan certainly won't help the Nittany Lions make the field, they'll need to repeat the feat multiple times in the conference tournament for that to happen, but it has a big impact on Michigan. Prior to this game, they were well in the hunt for a 1-seed and for at least a share of the regular season Big Ten title. Needless to say, this is a big setback there. They still have two big opportunities to turn it around with home games against Michigan State and Indiana, and if they can win out they should be right back in the discussion. Dropping either one of those games (or the road game at Purdue in between) would likely mean they would have to win the Big Ten Tournament just to be considered again.
Georgetown 79 at 78 Connecticut - It took two overtimes, but Georgetown holding on for a one point road win at Connecticut is huge for the Hoyas with so many other teams losing around them. They are the likely favorites for the top seed in the Big East tournament, and increased their chances for a top seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Virginia Tech 58 at 76 Miami (FL) - Not really much to say about this
game. Miami took care of business against the bottom of the conference,
but the significance here is that they bounced back from their bad loss
at Wake Forest and remain a candidate for a 1-seed. It is also one
step closer to clinching the top seed for the ACC tournament.
Akron 88 at 81 Ohio - A very important game in the MAC that may have flown under the radar. Akron is very much in the hunt for an at large bid should they fail to win the MAC tournament, but it is far from a sure thing. They need the best wins they can get, and on the road at Ohio is about as good as the Zips can do in the MAC. They'll still want to secure the automatic bid to be sure, but in case they miss it they'll still have a chance for an at large.
Drake 67 at 56 Indiana State - While we haven't taken a look at the Missouri Valley State, Indiana State was in the discussion for an at large spot. But, they keep doing things like this. While they have wins over the likes of Miami, Creighton, and Wichita State, they have now been swept on the season by Drake, to add to a number of other bad losses. This is very bad for Indiana State's at large chances and they'll need some help now.
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Dayton 88 at 67 Charlotte - Losing to Dayton is bad. Losing at home is bad. Losing by a lot is bad. Yeah, you get the point. It was a long shot to begin with, and Charlotte would have had to be pretty much perfect the rest of the way to warrant an at large bid, but this probably closes the door on the 49ers.
Maryland 68 at 78 Georgia Tech - Remember when this team beat Duke and their tournament hopes were revitalized? Since then they have lost at Boston College and now at Georgia Tech. Those are big no-nos if you want to be taken seriously as an at large candidate. With this game they slip below .500 in the ACC and time is running out. They may need the automatic bid if they want to be in the tournament.
Baylor 65 at 62 West Virginia - Baylor needed to win, and they did. They're hanging around as an at large contender, but they'll still need to add something to their profile. Beating West Virginia isn't going to change their status much, but losing would have. Fortunately, they won and still have chances with Kansas State and Kansas home games to get a signature win.
Evansville 59 at 56 Wichita State - Wichita State may be leading (well, now tied for the lead) in the Missouri Valley, but they really need to take care of business in games like this. Losing at home to Evansville is not only going to put some major damage on their seed, its also a step towards giving away the top spot in the conference. There probably isn't enough season left for them to be in danger of playing their way out of the tournament, but this is definitely a step in the wrong direction.
Texas A&M 73 at 82 Ole Miss - We haven't taken a look at the SEC yet, but the short version is - Ole Miss does not have much room to spare in any at large discussion. Winning at home over Texas A&M will hold them in that position for now.
Oklahoma 86 at 92 Texas - Texas is better than advertised, especially now that Myck Kabongo is back with the team, but losing to the bottom of the conference isn't good for the profile or for the expected seed. They should still be fine to make the tournament, but this will hurt their seed and they won't want to make losses like this a habit the rest of the way.
Arizona 78 at 89 USC - At one point Arizona was in the discussion for a one seed. Not so much anymore as they continue racking up losses to unranked teams. This will be a bad loss that will hurt their seed, but short of losing out the rest of the way, they'll end up with a decent seed for the tournament. Not as near the 1-line as they would've liked earlier in the season, but decent.
Colorado 65 at 63 Stanford - Colorado should be pretty safe in the field at this point, but a loss to Stanford would have hurt. On the other hand, Stanford needed a strong finish to the season to have any chance at an at large, and this should close the door on their chances. They'll need to take the automatic bid.
San Diego State 60 at 70 New Mexico - Both teams will be in the tournament, and a road loss to New Mexico isn't too damaging for San Diego State, and a home win is expected for New Mexico. The significance here is that it brings New Mexico within one winof the top seed in the Mountain West tournament. Looking at the rest of their schedule, we might as well hand it to them now.
Arizona State 74 at 79 UCLA - Arizona State needed this. They just did. It doesn't completely end their chances, but their RPI is not good, and they're running out of time. UCLA on the other hand will get a little boost and should be feeling pretty good about their chances of making the tournament.
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Thursday, February 28 - less bubble drama and upsets today...
Duke 68 at 73 Virginia - This is nothing short of huge for Virginia. They had a number of bad losses early in the season that was hurting their profile, but its hard to get a bigger win in the ACC. As long as they don't pull a Maryland and follow it up with a road loss to Boston College in their next game, then they should remain in good shape. Duke on the other hand, was fighting for a 1-seed and an outside chance at a regular season ACC title. They can pretty much forget about the top seed in the ACC tournament now, and while this hurts their chances at a 1-seed, they're still very much in the hunt. Especially with a home game against Miami coming up.
Gonzaga 70 at 65 BYU - Gonzaga remains in the discussion for a 1-seed with their win over BYU. Because of Gonzaga's weaker conference affiliation, they pretty much can't afford any losses if they want a 1-seed, and they've done just that so far in conference, remaining unbeaten.
Detroit 78 at 83 Temple - Temple picks up a decent non-conference win over a decent Detroit team. They will remain in the at large picture moving forward, but still will want to avoid any slips before the end of the season. Detroit didn't really have an at large chance anyway and will need the automatic bid from the Horizon League, but they'll be a tough matchup for a lot of teams if they do make it to the NCAA Tournament.
Middle Tennessee State 66 at 56 Troy - Middle Tennessee was expected to win this game, and they did. They had to to keep any chances at an at large alive. They will be the heavy favorites to win the Sun Belt Tournament, but if they can't for any reason, they will need to avoid any slips along the way to keep an at large possibility in tact.
Utah 46 at California 64 - This is nothing more than a bubble team holding serve at home. The win doesn't help their profile much, but it certainly avoids a bad loss.
There were a number of other games involving likely tournament teams today, but in all other cases it was teams that don't have to worry about missing the field avoiding bad losses. Not much to report in those cases.
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