Before we begin today's look at the final conferences to date, we have an important update from the Ivy League. With no conference tournament in the Ivy League, there are two important developments from Friday's games. First, with losses Cornell and Yale have officially been eliminated from contention for the automatic bid. Second, the only two remaining contenders, Princeton and Harvard, faced off with Princeton winning. Harvard retains a half game lead only because of an extra game played, but if both teams win out, they will have a one game playoff for the automatic bid.
Now, moving on to today's look at conferences, we begin with the SEC. There is no other conference in the country that has more teams that could go either in or out in the final weeks of the season. Of the fourteen teams in the conference, seven would have reason to believe they still have a possibility for an at large, but only two with any reason to feel particularly safe at this point. All fourteen will participate in the conference tournament. The seven teams that will need to take the automatic bid in order to make the NCAA tournament are Texas A&M, LSU, Vanderbilt, Georgia, South Carolina, Auburn, and Mississippi State. The tournament will take place March 13-17, with the championship on March 17 televised on ABC.
At Large Contenders:
Florida certainly appears to be this conference's best team. They have been flirting with a 1-seed all season, but a couple recent road losses have damaged their opportunity for that. It is not too late for the Gators to get back into the top seed discussion, but they will likely need to win out and win the conference tournament to do so. Another loss in the SEC would likely drop them too far to climb back by the end of the season.
Kentucky is experiencing quite a different season than last year's team. They are currently tied second in the conference, but they only managed to pick up their first truly good win in overtime against Missouri at the end of February. They don't have any truly damaging losses, with Texas A&M being the worst, but they'll need to use the rest of the season to convince people they should be in. With road games at Arkansas and Georgia, there are opportunities for damaging losses, but also a home game against Florida for an opportunity for a big win. Multiple losses down the stretch would require a big showing in the conference tournament to silence the critics, and taking the automatic bid might be the only way to make sure of it. But a winning streak down the stretch should clinch a spot for them, at which point the conference tournament would largely be for their seed.
Alabama has won enough games in conference to remain in the discussion, but their overall profile is not very impressive. Their best win is over Kentucky, but they have lost to Dayton, Mercer, Tulane, and Auburn. Not good. After their loss to Florida today, they will need to win out over Ole Miss and Georgia and make a deep run in the tournament to be a serious at large contender, and winning the conference tournament would be the only way to feel safe on Selection Sunday.
Ole Miss started the season very strong, but lately they've been struggling. Unfortunately for them, their strong start didn't include much in the way of impressive wins. A lone win over Missouri is the best they can offer, but they also have a very bad loss to South Carolina on the profile. Winning out in the SEC would probably be a requirement in order to avoid bad losses to Mississippi State and LSU, and a home game to Alabama would give them an edge over a fellow bubble team. If they can't do that, they may be able to sneak in depending on their SEC tournament performance, but winning the tournament would be the only way to feel truly safe.
Missouri is the only other team besides Florida in
the SEC who can actually feel good about their at large chances right
now. Non-conference wins over Illinois and VCU remain huge for
Missouri, and their home win over Florida should clinch their spot. As
long as they don't end the season with three straight losses and an
early SEC tournament exit they'll be in, but they'll want to use the rest of the season to try to improve their profile and seed for the NCAA tournament.
Tennessee came out of nowhere to join the discussion for an at large berth from the SEC. They have won six straight, but a bad start to the season is requiring this surge as they were hovering around .500 overall prior to this run. Wins over Florida and Wichita State, as well as a 30 point beating of Kentucky solidifies their resume, but a home loss to Georgia early in the season hurts. They'll need to avoid bad losses on the road to Georgia and Auburn down the stretch, and a home game against Missouri to close the regular season will be important. If they start losing again, it may require the automatic bid in the SEC Tournament to make the big dance.
Arkansas will need to finish the season very strong in order to get true consideration, but they do have wins over Florida, Missouri, and Oklahoma to make a case. They will have to overcome losses to South Carolina and Vanderbilt, but wins down the stretch over Kentucky and Missouri would be big, and they'll have to avoid losing to Texas A&M, but they certainly have an opportunity to make a case. If they can't start a winning streak though, they will likely require the automatic bid in order to get in.
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The Southern Conference will be providing only a single team into the NCAA tournament this year, as no teams have an at large worthy resume. This twelve team conference will have all members participating in the conference tournament, with Davidson being the favorite to advance from the top seed. However, as always, all teams are alive until they get eliminated in the tournament. The eleven teams challenging Davidson will be Charleson, Elon, Wofford, Western Carolina, Chattanooga, Samford, Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Citadel, UNC Greensboro, and Furman. The conference tournament will be taking place from March 8-11, with the automatic bid handed out on March 11 and televised on either ESPN or ESPN2.
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The Southland Conference will also only be getting a single bid this year. Current leader Stephen F Austin has one of the best records in the country, but their schedule will ultimately keep them from being a serious at large candidate. They will certainly be the favorite to take the automatic bid, but they will want to make sure they do in order to make the tournament. Only eight of the ten teams in the conference will make the conference tournament. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi is ineligible for postseason play, and Lamar has already been eliminated from contention. The seven teams to challenge Stephen F Austin will be: Northwestern State, Oral Roberts, Southeastern Louisiana, Sam Houston State, Nicholls State, McNeese State, and Central Arkansas. The tournament will take place from March 13-16, with the automatic bid handed out on March 16 and televised on ESPN2.
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The Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC) will be yet another one bid league. Three teams in this conference will be ineligible for their postseason tournament, including current conference leader Texas Southern, the current second place team in Arkansas-Pine Bluff, and a bit further down in the standings, Mississippi Valley State. That leaves seven teams to compete for the automatic bid, they are: Southern, Prairie View A&M, Jackson State, Alcorn State, Alabama State, Alabama A&M, and the only team still winless in all of Division I - Grambling State. The conference tournament will take place from March 13-16 with the automatic bid handed out March 16 on ESPN2.
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The Summit League will be our fourth consecutive one bid league, but there are some talented teams in this league. Most notably, current conference leader South Dakota State has a very impressive win over New Mexico this season. They will be the top seed in the conference tournament. Eight teams will participate in the tournament, with the ninth team in the conference, Nebraska-Omaha, ineligible for postseason play as they transition from Division II. The seven teams that will challenge South Dakota State for the lone automatic bid in the conference will be Western Illinois, North Dakota State, Oakland, IPFW, South Dakota, UMKC, and IUPUI. The tournament will take place from March 9-12, with the conference championship on March 12 televised on ESPN2.
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The Sun Belt may be another one bid league, but that is not guaranteed this season. Middle Tennessee State is leading the way in the conference, but they may get an at large consideration if they fail to take care of business in the conference tournament. All eleven teams in the conference will make the tournament with a chance to claim the automatic bid, and the ten that will require that automatic bid are: South Alabama, Arkansas State, Florida-International, Arkansas-Little Rock, Western Kentucky, Florida Atlantic, Louisiana-Lafayette, North Texas, Troy, and Louisiana-Monroe. The tournament will take place from March 8-11 with the automatic bid handed out on March 11 and televised on ESPN.
At Large Contenders:
Middle Tennessee State has only lost three times all season, but their best win is over Ole Miss, and they have a bad loss to Arkansas State. Normally this wouldn't make much of an at large profile, especially considering they would have to lose to another Sun Belt team in order to need an at large bid. However, as was mentioned with Belmont earlier, only one team in the history of the tournament has not received an at large bid when their RPI was under 30. Middle Tennessee is currently at 24. They will get some consideration if they fail to take the automatic bid from the Sun Belt tournament, but won't want to risk it if they can help it.
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The West Coast Conference (WCC) features one of the top teams in the land in Gonzaga. But the question about Gonzaga is largely based around the strength of their conference. There are a couple teams of note, but largely, not many at large contenders. Of the nine teams in the conference, they will all make the conference tournament, but seven will require the automatic bid in order to make the tournament, including BYU, Santa Clara, San Francisco, San Diego, Pepperdine, Portland, and Loyola Marymount. The conference tournament will take place March 6-11, with the championship game on March 11 televised on either ESPN or ESPN2.
At Large Contenders:
Gonzaga has consistently risen in the rankings all year, and as teams have lost around them worked themselves into a possible 1-seed for the NCAA Tournament. The questions come up about playing in an easy conference, but they have to receive credit for taking care of business in their conference. If they want to keep that 1-seed, they will likely need to take the conference tournament championship, as a single loss in a weak conference may be enough to remove them from that line.
Saint Mary's hasn't had a lot of opportunities to pick up impressive wins, but they do have a win over Creighton. That remains the only good win on their profile, and losses to Pacific and Georgia Tech hurt. A loss in the season finale to Santa Clara, or a loss to anyone other than Gonzaga in the conference tournament could be very damaging to their at large chances. And overall, getting the automatic bid is really the only way to feel certain that they'll be in the NCAA Tournament.
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Our last conference to look at is the WAC. There are some decent teams in this conference, but only one that may have a chance at an at large bid. All ten teams will make the conference tournament, and nine of them will need to win it in order to make the NCAA Tournament. Those nine teams are: Denver, New Mexico State, Texas-Arlington, Utah State, Idaho, Texas State, San Jose State, Texas-San Antonio, and Seattle. The conference tournament will take place from March 12-16, with the automatic bid awarded on March 16 on ESPNU.
At Large Contenders:
Louisiana Tech is currently undefeated in conference and made a recent appearance in the national top 25 rankings. They'll get a look in the at large pool if they fail to win the WAC Tournament. Their best win is over Southern Miss, but they do have some bad losses to Northwestern State and McNeese State. By far their best opportunity to make the NCAA tournament will be with the WAC automatic bid, but they won't immediately be eliminated from consideration if they don't.
BID THIEF ALERT: If anyone other than Louisiana Tech gets the automatic bid from the WAC, Louisiana Tech will become an at large contender. They may not end up stealing someone's spot, as there is no guarantee they'll make the field as an at large, but the possibility is there that they could be selected over another at large team in the country.
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This wraps up our look at the conferences to date. Moving forward we will take a closer look at the games as they happen, narrow down the at large contenders, and start filling out the field as conference tournaments begin. Look for the conference tournament brackets to be posted in the next few days in the tabs up top.
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