Taking a look at the games from yesterday that involved any at large contenders, in the Big East, Villanova picked up a massive win over Georgetown. The win may officially clinch them a spot in the tournament should they need an at large bid. For Georgetown, the loss takes likely takes them out of the running for a 1-seed, they may need to win the Big East tournament to get back in the discussion. In other games involving potential 1-seed contenders, Michigan and Florida picked up wins, but Miami dropped another game, this time at home to lowly Georgia Tech. The loss likely eliminates them from contention on the top line as well. Among bubble teams, Xavier just won't go away no matter how many times I try to eliminate them, as they picked up a huge win over Saint Louis. Despite the win, their hopes remain slim. Saint Louis is in the field, but will take a stumble in their seeding. Temple and La Salle picked up conference wins in the A10 over Fordham and George Washington to avoid bad losses. Iowa State may have booked their spot in the field as they got the big win they needed over Oklahoma State. The loss may have taken Oklahoma State officially out of the running for the Big 12 regular season title, but should only cause a small drop in their projected seed. Maryland lost at home to North Carolina to make their at large hopes almost nonexistent, as they needed to pick up big wins to finish the season. North Carolina solidifies their position in the field with the win. Tennessee avoided another bad loss as they beat Auburn, but will still need a win over Missouri in their season finale to remain in contention. Minnesota should have locked their spot up by beating Indiana at home, but following it up with a loss at Nebraska is a good way to ruin a seed anyway. It should be too late to play their way out, but not too late to knock their seed down. UCLA puts up a bad loss to Washington State to do some damage to their seed as well, California dropped a home game to Stanford. Last thing I said about them was that it was too late to play their way out, but they still have plenty of time to sweat if they get knocked out of the Pac-12 tournament early. Teams that actually protected their seed in yesterday's games were Syracuse with a win over DePaul, VCU over Richmond, NC State over Wake Forest, Oklahoma over West Virginia, Colorado State over Wyoming, New Mexico over Nevada, and San Diego State over Air Force.
---see today's conference tournament previews after the jump---
The Missouri Valley Conference tournament is the only one beginning today. Dubbed "Arch Madness", the entire tournament takes place in St Louis on a neutral court. The top two seeds, Creighton and Wichita State, should be safe for at large bids should they fail to take the automatic berth, but early exits could create a stressful Selection Sunday. Should any team other than Creighton or Wichita State win the tournament, that team would be taking an at large spot from someone else in the country and we would have ourselves a bid thief. Fifth seed Indiana State was at one point a solid at large contender with a number of top wins, including an early season win over Miami (FL), but they fell apart down the stretch and now need the automatic bid. Creighton's Doug McDermott is the player to watch, as he was second in the country in scoring with 23.4 points per game and hits 48% of his three pointers. See below for how I see this conference playing out.
First Round Analysis:
Drake and Bradley split the games they played this season, each winning at home. Bradley slid down the conference standings to end the season, losing five of their final six conference games. Drake shoots the ball well and scores at a decent rate, and I think they'll get by Bradley with their offense.
Missouri State shoots the ball worse than anyone else in the conference at barely over 40% from the field, and scores less than anyone as well. They only have ten total wins all year. Southern Illinois, on the other hand, started conference play very bad, but came on strong at the end with wins in five of their last six. I'll take the ten seed to move on.
Quarterfinals Analysis:
Drake actually has a win over Creighton this year, but Creighton also has a 30 point win over Drake. I'm chalking the Drake win up to a fluke, because both teams strengths are in their offense, and Creighton's offense is significantly better. No team in the country shoots better from the floor than Creighton, I don't think Drake can keep up.
Talk about teams going in different directions. Evansville has won four in a row coming into the tournament and Indiana State has lost five of their last six, including by 16 to Evansville. Momentum is a big factor in tournaments, and I like Evansville to advance.
Illinois State has a solid offense and can score the ball, but they turn it over it over at the second highest rate in the conference and commit the second most fouls in the conference. Northern Iowa plays sound defense and shoots free throws better than anyone in the conference. Advantage Northern Iowa to move on.
Southern Illinois was able to beat Wichita State at home a few weeks ago, and has been playing better down the stretch, but Wichita State should have a significant advantage on rebounds and on the offensive end to take control of this game.
Semifinals Analysis:
Creighton's shooting percentage over all is at 51.1% and they hit 42.2% from three. Evansville can't match that offensive production on a consistent basis, but they have players who have the potential to match it for a game. Remember the name Colt Ryan, because if Evansville goes on a run, he will be the catalyst. However, in a battle of star power, McDermott wins, and should propel Creighton through to the final.
Wichita State cooled off at the end of the year after a hot start. They split with Northern Iowa this year, and Northern Iowa has won seven of their last eight games in conference. Wichita State has proven to be upset prone in important games down the stretch this year, and Northern Iowa has the defense and hot hand that could take them out. I like Northern Iowa to advance to the final.
Championship Game Analysis:
Northern Iowa and Creighton have split wins this year. In the game Creighton won, McDermott had 31 points on 22 shots. In the game Northern Iowa won, McDermott had 10 shots for 15 points. Limit McDermott's contribution and Creighton's offense suffers. Easier said than done, but I like the defense Northern Iowa brings and they have proven they are capable of limiting him once this season. Playing for their NCAA tournament life in this game, I like Northern Iowa to take the automatic bid and play bid thief to the rest of the country.
Dark Horse Contender:
I've already mentioned Evansville's potential of going on a run with Colt Ryan, but on the other side of that 4-5 game is Indiana State. They were ice cold to finish the year, but at one point this team was beating everyone. They have wins over each of the four teams ahead of them in the field earlier in the season, if they're able to recapture that form there is no reason they couldn't ride it all the way to an automatic bid.
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While the Missouri Valley is the only conference tournament beginning today, there are three beginning tomorrow including the MAAC, Southern, and Sun Belt. Lets take an early look into one of these tournaments.
The MAAC tournament is held at a neutral site in Springfield, Massachusetts. All ten teams in the conference will participate, but only one bid will be handed out to the conference winner. Last year Iona came out of this conference as an at large team, but there are no at large teams in contention here. Niagara got the top seed with a 13-5 record in conference, while Loyola (MD) and Rider each finished a game back at 12-6. You have to go all the way down to 8th seeded Marist before you get to a team that finished below .500 in conference, so this could be a wide open tournament. Keep on reading for my prediction how this one will play out.
My Predictions:
First Round Analysis:
Marist split with Siena this year, with each team winning on the other's home court. But for Siena, you have to go all the way back to February 1 before you can find a win in conference on their schedule. Since then they have lost seven consecutive conference games. Marist, on a three game win streak, should advance to the Second Round.
Fairfield lost three straight games in order to drop to the seven seed, but they did sweep Saint Peter's this season, who has only won three conference games total. Fairfield should be able to snap their mini-skid and advance.
Quarterfinals Analysis:
Niagara finished the season 4-4 over their last eight games, not typically what you see from a top seed. But, a road win at Marist was one of those four wins, and they swept them on the season. They should be able to advance here.
Iona features the second best offense in the country in terms of points per game, and they're playing a team in Canisius that won't necessarily slow the game down. Iona should fare well in this matchup, and while they split in the regular season, I like Iona's offense to come out and push them by Canisius.
Manhattan and Loyola both finished the season pretty strong, and just played to finish the regular season with a two point win for Loyola at home. In that game, Loyola had a large lead and held on as Manhattan whittled it away, but free throws were the difference. Manhattan fouls more than any team in the conference, and if Loyola can get to the free throw line again they should be able to win and move on.
Fairfield has managed two wins over Rider this season, but the teams appear to be going different directions since their last meeting. Rider finished the season with five straight wins while Fairfield has dropped three straight, including a game they managed a whopping 31 total points. Rider plays solid defense and gets wins without scoring a lot of points, and should ride the momentum to top Fairfield this time around.
Semifinals Analysis:
Iona is unlucky to have dropped all the way to the four seed in this conference, as they had a stretch where they lost four times in five games, courtesy of five total overtimes played. Of the seven losses they have in conference, they have never lost by more than five, and six of them were within a single possession. They split with Niagara this season, with the loss coming in overtime during that particular stretch. Their offense should be able outdo Niagara on a neutral court, and I like the lower seed advancing to the final here.
Rider and Loyola split the two games they played this year, each winning at home. Rider's defense has been the catalyst for their recent run, allowing less than 60 four times in their past eight games, during a 7-1 stretch. Loyola does not feature a high powered offense and I like Rider to advance through their defense.
Championship Game Analysis:
Rider's run has been sparked by their defense, but their only loss in the past eight games has come to Iona, in a game they allowed 78. Iona has an offense that should be able to deal with Rider's defense, and I like them to take the automatic bid for the MAAC.
Non-Predicted Dark Horse:
While I am already taking the four seed to take the championship, don't sleep on sixth seeded Manhattan. They finished the season very strong, with their only losses in the last eight games coming in the aforementioned two point loss at Loyola, and a four point loss to top seeded Niagara. If they can defend without fouling and keep teams off the line, they could make a run through this tournament on the back of their defense, which has held opponents to 51 or less six times this year.
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Games of note - Thursday Edition:
Big South Elimination Game - Charleston Southern vs Winthrop
Big South Elimination Game - VMI vs Longwood
Big South Elimination Game - Gardner-Webb vs Campbell
Big South Elimination Game - High Point vs Liberty
Atlantic Sun Elimination Game - Stetson vs East Tennessee State
Atlantic Sun Elimination Game - Jacksonville vs USC Upstate
Missouri Valley Elimination Game - Bradley vs Drake
Missouri Valley Elimination Game - Missouri State vs Southern Illinois
Ohio Valley Elimination Game - Tennessee State vs Morehead State
Ohio Valley Elimination Game - Eastern Kentucky vs Southeast Missouri State
WCC Elimination Game - San Francisco vs Loyola Marymount
WCC Elimination Game - San Diego vs Pepperdine
At Large Candidate - Virginia at Florida State
At Large Candidate - Kentucky at Georgia
At Large Candidate - Butler at Massachusetts
At Large Candidate - Wisconsin at Michigan State
At Large Candidate - Oregon at Colorado
Closing Comments:
One we get into the weekend games, I'll be taking a closer look at the completed games rather than the predictions for games to come. After all, it is the results that build the field. I will still throw out my opinion of how each conference will shake out, but the game by game analysis will be replaced with more analysis on the results coming in. As always, feel free to comment with your own thoughts and predictions, and check back tomorrow for the Southern and Sun Belt conference previews, along with a recap of Thursday's action.
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