Tonight's action includes three more championship games:
Northeast - Long Island vs Mount St Marys - 7:00pm ET - ESPN2
Summit - South Dakota State vs North Dakota State - 9:00pm ET - ESPN2
Horizon - Valparaiso vs Wright State - 9:00pm ET - ESPN
Saint Mary's At Large Profile
There's got to be nothing like being a bubble team this far out from the tournament. You can't do anything about it, so you just have to sit there and root for every favorite to win and every other bubble team in the country to look as bad as possible in their final games. That is the position Saint Mary's will be in for the next five days, so the question now is, have they done enough?
RPI - At the beginning of the day Tuesday, Saint Mary's RPI currently sits at 33. It's a good number, but it does not have the same sort of security as one in the 20's. Three times a team with an RPI of exactly 30 has missed the cut as an at large. But they're not far from that line, and the higher the better and they're in a decent position here.
SOS - The WCC is a better conference than the Sun Belt we looked at yesterday, Saint Mary's will get a little boost from having played Gonzaga three times, but besides those three games, they only have one real game of note, and that is a home game with Creighton. Their non-conference Strength of Schedule is 129, which is a bit higher than preferable but could certainly be worse. They'll just have to hope they don't get a direct comparison to Middle Tennessee in this category.
History - The most comparable team to Saint Mary's from last year's at large candidates is Drexel. Saint Mary's has a better RPI, but the rest of their resume is amazingly similar. They each ended up with six total losses, each playing in non-major conferences, with some bad losses early in the season. Drexel not only missed the field, they apparently weren't all that close. They ended up as a 3-seed in the NIT.
Good Wins - Its a good thing Saint Mary's got that late season home game with Creighton, because without it they have nothing here. So one good win and after that the best they can offer is a sweep of BYU.
Bad Losses - Two early season losses to Pacific and Georgia Tech do not look good now. They also have a loss to a respectable Northern Iowa team that would look better in the win column. They haven't lost a lot this season, but these games could hurt them.
The Verdict - If it was my call, and maybe fortunately for Saint Mary's it isn't, I'd have them OUT. That isn't to say they'd stay out, if enough bubble teams fall early in conference tournaments they could sneak back in, but they would be right on the edge of my cut line right now. In a direct comparison with Middle Tennessee from yesterday, I keep coming back to that non-conference Strength of Schedule number, and that is a big boost for Middle Tennessee, and if it was one or the other for a final spot, I'd take MTSU. Needless to say, they'll want to see plenty of early losses for other bubble teams in the hopes of jumping past some now.
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Not much in the way of other games happening yesterday, but with two conference tournaments beginning today in the Big East and the WAC, hit the jump for the previews.
The Big East Tournament is held at Madison Square Garden in New York City, and for the final time with these teams. As many as eight teams could wind up in the NCAA Tournament, and possibly even a ninth if someone unexpected makes a run to the automatic bid. The top six seeds in Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and Notre Dame will be in the tournament regardless of performance in this tournament, but Georgetown and Louisville will have their sights set on a 1-seed in the big dance if they can win here. Villanova and Cincinnati are the other two at large candidates in the mix, and both are most likely safe but may not sleep comfortably until Sunday if they lose their first game. Providence and St Johns could theoretically still enter the at large pool, but they would probably need to reach the final and lose to be a serious contender for an at large bid.
My Predictions:
Georgetown and Louisville got the top two seeds in this tournament for a reason. This is a difficult conference to play in and these two teams have been on fire down the stretch. Louisville's only loss in the last eleven games took five overtimes on the road, while Georgetown has only lost once in the last 13 games. Those are incredible streaks in a difficult conference. Louisville boasts the best offense in the conference at 73.5 points per game, while Georgetown is a shutdown defense that routinely holds opponents in the 40's and 50's. Keep an eye on Pittsburgh, who is very efficient from the floor shooting a conference best 47.9% on the year. But ultimately, I think this conference comes down to the teams who have been the best down the stretch, and in a battle of offense vs defense in the final, I like Louisville's offense to come out on top.
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The WAC Conference Tournament takes place at a neutral site in Nevada. For much of the season, top seed Louisiana Tech played as though they may be worthy of an at large should they fall in the WAC Tournament, but after finishing the season on consecutive losses, this has turned into a for sure one bid league. The winner of this conference tournament will be the only one standing in the NCAA Tournament field. The two and three seeds in Denver and New Mexico State have each pummeled Louisiana Tech in the week leading up to the tournament and will be full of confidence, keep reading for my prediction how this will play out.
My Predictions:
I don't know what happened to Louisiana Tech at the end of the season, but not only do they not look like an at large team, they don't look like any sort of tournament team. They're also traveling across the country to play in neutral Nevada, which is never easy to do. They look very beatable, and I think that will happen early. Utah State is a solid team and I think the most likely to take advantage of Louisiana Tech while they're down. But ultimately I like the winner of the probable 2-3 matchup to take the automatic bid here. Denver and New Mexico State are the ones that pasted Louisiana Tech recently, and between each other have lost a combined three times in their past 35 games, and two of losses were in games they played each other. The winner in that semifinal match up is my favorite to win in the championship regardless who they're playing. I like Denver to take it as an efficient offensive team with a good defense. They are in the top ten in the country in both assists as a team and field goal percentage, and they're hot at the right time and I think they'll carry it into the NCAA Tournament.
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