New in the Field
Two conference tournament championship games were played yesterday. Liberty shocked the Big South to take the automatic bid there. With a 6-10 conference record in the regular season and 11 total wins going into the tournament - good for 10th in the 12 team conference - Liberty won four straight games against higher ranked opposition to clinch the automatic bid. They worked their record all the way up to 15-20 during their conference tournament run and will certainly be one of the 16 seeds in the NCAA Tournament.
Creighton, in a less surprising fashion, took the automatic bid from the Missouri Valley Conference by topping Wichita State. Depending how the rest of the conference tournaments shake up, I think their most likely landing spot will be around a 7-seed in the NCAA Tournament. I went ahead and locked Wichita State into the tournament as well, as they are completely done with their games and there is no scenario I can see with them being left out of the field. With these three additions today, that brings the spots remaining in the tournament field down to 62. Of course, keep in mind that no team is locked into the field until after they have played their final game.
Today's Championships
Five tournaments wrap up today with championship games:
Colonial - Northeastern vs James Madison - 7:00pm ET - NBC Sports Network
Southern - Davidson vs Charleston - 7:00pm ET - ESPN2
Sun Belt - Florida International vs Western Kentucky - 7:00pm ET - ESPN
WCC - Gonzaga vs Saint Mary's - 9:00pm ET - ESPN
MAAC - Iona vs Manhattan - 9:00pm ET - ESPN2
---hit the jump for a look at the rest of yesterday's action and a preview of the tournaments beginning today---
Sunday's Recap
Taking a look at yesterday's action, I'm once again going to try to not let my Michigan fandom get in the way here...In the Big Ten, Indiana completes a remarkable comeback in the final minute to top Michigan and win the Big Ten regular season title outright. The loss by Michigan prevented not only Michigan, but also their biggest rivals in Michigan State and Ohio State from clinching a share of the Big Ten title. So the only thing I can assume is that once the game was in the bag and they knew they could beat Indiana, they threw it away because when given the opportunity to screw over both of your biggest rivals at once, you take it with no regard to your own personal cost. The loss drops Michigan all the way to the five seed in the Big Ten tournament, while wins by Ohio State over Illinois, Michigan State over Northwestern, and Wisconsin over Penn State clinched the 2, 3, and 4 seeds respectively.
Elsewhere in the country, Temple topped VCU to clinch the 3-seed in the Atlantic 10 tournament, and solidify their at large profile. If they can get at least one win in the tournament they shouldn't have anything to worry about on selection Sunday. The loss prevents VCU from claiming a share of the regular season title, but shouldn't have a significant impact on their at large status. In the ACC, Virginia needed overtime, but they picked up an important win over Maryland for their at large status. The loss for Maryland essentially writes them off as an at large contender, while Virginia remains very much alive. At least one win in the ACC Tournament would be a significant help (most likely against NC State), if they can't get it they'll still have a chance but will have plenty of reason to be nervous on Sunday.
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Middle Tennessee State - At Large Resume
Middle Tennessee State becomes the first team this season to find themselves in this position - they aren't quite eliminated from at large contention, but aren't comfortably in the field either. With their loss in the Sun Belt tournament on Sunday, they have no more games to play to prove themselves, so now all they can do is sit and wait. So while they're waiting, lets take a look at their resume on our own.
RPI - As of Monday morning, their RPI is 28. That is a very good number for Middle Tennessee, and as I have mentioned in previous posts before, only one team has ever been left out of the tournament with an RPI under 3.
SOS - Middle Tennessee has a Strength of Schedule of 135, which has been dragged down by playing in a weak conference. The number that really matters here is they had the 9th ranked non-conference strength of schedule. That is a number that will impress the committee.
History - Looking at last year's tournament, the committee stuck Iona into the field as the last at large team in when they were in a similar situation. Iona was a dominant team that was upset in their conference tournament. Middle Tennessee has a better RPI than Iona did and a better Strength of Schedule.
Quality Wins - Despite their strong non-conference strength of schedule, they didn't get much in the way of wins from it. Their best is a win over Ole Miss, which may look good if they're compared, but ultimately I'm not sold on Ole Miss's tournament credibility. Their next best win is Central Florida, which won't get many bonus points. They have losses to Florida, Belmont, and Akron in the other games at the top of their schedule. Another win in there somewhere would have been a huge help.
Bad Losses - This is where playing in the Sun Belt hurts. Any loss is a bad loss in conference. They had one to Arkansas State in the regular season, and the tournament loss to Florida International.
Verdict - If it was Selection Sunday right now, I would have them IN. I think the committee will reward their non-conference schedule, and they'll end up like Iona did last year, in one of the at large play in games. But, there are still games to be played, and the kicker here for Middle Tennessee is they don't get to play any. There is room for the bubble teams around them to go either direction. If enough of them lose early in their conference tournaments, I think they stay in the field. But if enough bubble teams make their case with solid performances during conference tournaments, they'll slide out. They'll also need to be wary of bid thieves the rest of the way.
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Conference Tournament Previews
Two new tournaments begin today with the MAC and MEAC conferences. Take a look at these conferences below:
The Mid American (MAC) Tournament is held at a neutral site in Cleveland, Ohio. A couple weeks ago they had a potential at large candidate in Akron, but they have since lost two of their last three, and this has turned into a guaranteed one bid conference. Only the conference tournament winner will make the NCAA Tournament with the automatic bid. Toledo has already been eliminated from contention due to being ineligible for postseason play, so the remaining eleven teams will fight it out for a single bid. Akron and Ohio will be the favorites, as the format allows them to advance straight to the semi-finals, but any team has a chance until they lose.
My Predictions:
The three best teams offensively in this conference are Ohio (leads in points per game and field goal percentage), Akron (second in each category), and Kent State (third in points per game, shoots best from three). Ohio also leads the country in assists per game as a team. Considering their respective spots in the standings, it is clear offense is the driving factor in this conference. Heading into the tournament, no team has been hotter than Kent State, who has won five in a row and seven of their last eight, including a road win at Akron. Their only loss was a road game at Ohio that they took into overtime. Ball State has finished the season equally strong, although against the weaker side of the conference. With all due respect to third seed Western Michigan, who has had a solid season of their own, I think this tournament comes down to these three teams on the offensive end of each game. Both Akron and Kent State will get plenty of fan support as each school is within an hour from the neutral site Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland. I like Kent State to get by slumping Akron in the semifinals, and then ride their hot streak to beat a team they have played to within a single possession twice this season already and take the automatic bid for the MAC.
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The MEAC Conference Tournament will take place at a technically neutral site, although in downtown Norfolk, top seeded Norfolk State and their fans will have a short commute. Only one team will be coming out of that conference, as there are no at large contenders here. Whoever can take the automatic bid will be the conference's representative in the NCAA Tournament. Norfolk State will be the clear favorite, as they have not lost yet in conference this season, but second seeded North Carolina Central only has a single loss in conference (although not to Norfolk State, they have not yet played this season. This is the only conference in Division I basketball I know of that some teams will play twice and others not at all). Every team gets a spot in the tournament though, and until they lose all of them have a shot at the automatic bid.
My Prediction:
There is not a lot of firepower in this conference, as no team averages even 68 points per game. Over half of the conference shoots under 40% from the field and over half shoots under 30% from three. In some respects we can chalk this up to good defense, but there is also only a single team that shoots at least 70% from the free throw line. In my eyes, the winner of this conference is going to be the one that can put it together on the offensive end, and over the course of the season only one team has done that. North Carolina Central leads the conference in points per game, field goal percentage, three point percentage, and free throw percentage. They only lost once in conference this year, as the one time this season they went cold from the field. But in that game they still only allowed 44 points. Norfolk State presents formidable opposition as they have remained undefeated in conference all season, but far from dominant in conference this season. They are currently on a 15 game winning streak, but in those 15 games, 11 of them have been decided by 7 points or less. These are the two best teams in the conference, and they should rightfully meet in the championship game as they have not met yet this year. I think in the end, the offense North Carolina Central can bring will be the difference maker as they win this conference's automatic bid.
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Closing Notes
We are now completely into conference tournaments. The rest of the way we will be eliminating teams as they lose in their tournaments, evaluating bubble teams as they fall, and filling out the field with tournament winners and at large candidates. By the end of this week there should be a pretty clear picture of what the tournament field will look like.
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