Three teams clinched automatic bids yesterday, as Long Island clinched the Northeast Conference with an impressive victory over Mount Saint Mary's. Valparaiso took the the automatic bid in the Horizon with a victory over Wright State, and South Dakota State is in with a victory in the Summit Conference final with a win over North Dakota State. These three losers have now been eliminated from contention as they do not have a legitimate at large chance. Joining them in the ranks of the eliminated from yesterday are Coppin State, Florida A&M, South Florida, Nevada, Seattle, Howard, DePaul, and San Jose State.
Only one automatic bid to be handed out tonight:
Patriot - Bucknell vs Lafayette - 7:30pm ET - CBS Sports Network
Conference tournaments continue today as action begins in the Big 12, Conference USA, Pac-12, SEC, Southland, and SWAC Conferences. Hit the jump to see the previews and my predictions for each conference.
The Big 12 Tournament is held neutrally at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, Missouri. Six teams in the tournament are playing with at large hopes. Kansas, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State will be in the tournament regardless of performance here, and Oklahoma most likely will be as well, although losing to TCU to end the season raised some eyebrows. The two true bubble teams are Iowa State and Baylor. Iowa State may be able to survive a first round loss depending how bubble teams across the country do, but Baylor more likely needs to get at least one win, but a first round loss wouldn't write them off entirely. The remaining teams will need to take the automatic bid in order to play in the NCAA Tournament.
My Predictions:
At times this season, Kansas has done a few perplexing things, and at other times they remind you of typical Kansas. A losing streak that included a rare home loss followed by a loss to lowly TCU is one, a 23 point defeat in a game they could have clinched the outright title is another. When they get into these perplexing states, they look not only beatable, but in some aspects downright bad. Iowa State features the best offense in the conference and 4th best in the country in points per game at over 80, but their problem comes when their defense gives up almost as many points. Iowa State has played them into overtime twice this season, and I think a third match up on the heels of Kansas's blowout loss to Baylor will give Iowa State a push through to the final. On the other side Oklahoma State has had a strong finish to the season, including a win over Kansas State to close out the season and I think will ride that into the final. Oklahoma State has a very balanced team with four players who average double digits in points per game. When shooting well, they can beat any team in the country, and Iowa State is a team that will give up points. I like Oklahoma State to top Iowa State for the automatic bid in the Big 12.
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The Conference USA Tournament is being held this year in Tulsa, Oklahoma. It is not on the home court of fifth seeded Tulsa, but it will certainly be a short commute. Originally the tournament was slated to be held in Memphis, but the the conference elected to move it to Tulsa so that top seeded Memphis, who is leaving the conference after this season, would not have home court advantage in their last appearance in the tournament. A little bit bitter Conference USA? Memphis is the only team in my opinion with any at large hopes in this conference. Cases could be made for Southern Miss, but I think they would need a win over Memphis in order to make their at large profile stand out, and if they end up facing Memphis it would be for the automatic bid anyway. Bubble teams around the country will be rooting hard for Memphis here.
My Predictions:
Memphis hasn't lost in conference play yet this season, and their only loss since December 15 was by two points on the road at Xavier. There have been some mildly close calls, but overall no one in this conference has given us any reason to think they can beat Memphis. I think this tournament merely comes down to who they beat along the way. On the other half of the bracket, I see an offense vs defense showdown between Southern Miss and UTEP to determine who makes the final. Southern Miss boasts the best field goal percentage in the conference, while UTEP may have the best defense. In their last meeting, UTEP held Southern Miss to only 45 points. The problem, their offense isn't able to keep up with their defense, as in that game they only scored 39. I think Southern Miss will fare a bit better on the offensive end this time around to move on, but ultimately no one will be able to keep up with Memphis, who will take the conference's automatic bid, and you'll hear a collective sigh of relief from every bubble team in the country as one more at large bid remains available.
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The Pac-12 tournament takes place at a neutral site in Las Vegas, Nevada. The top five teams enter the bracket with at large hopes, while the other seven are essentially playing for the automatic bid only. Arizona State has been the closest other candidate all season, and it is conceivable if they make it to the tournament final and lose they could get another look, but even that wouldn't guarantee them anything. UCLA, California, Oregon, Arizona, and Colorado are all in pretty good shape for at least making the field as an at large, with only Colorado facing the prospect of a truly damaging loss (losing twice to Oregon State to end the season would be a reason to be nervous on Selection Sunday). There isn't really a true, close the the edge bubble team in this conference, but every team will be playing for taht automatic bid.
My Predictions:
Colorado shouldn't have to worry about their at large resume if in any capacity if they get by Arizona in the quarterfinals. They certainly remember getting robbed of a win at Arizona earlier in the season, and they got payback once in the return trip this season but they are certainly capable of doing it again. Oregon dropped two games down the stretch to fumble away the regular season title, and don't look like they're capable of beating anyone recently. Washington has the ability to take advantage of that. UCLA has led the conference in points per game on the season and in field goal percentage, and they also rank 7th in the country as a team in assists per game. I think they can ride that offense to the final, but California has been the hottest team in the conference as they won seven of their last eight games to get the two seed. That stretch included wins over UCLA, Oregon, Arizona, and Colorado. They have proven their ability to beat the best in the conference, and I think that will take them to the title.
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The SEC tournament will take place at a neutral site in Nashville, Tennessee. This is a conference full of bubble teams, as only Florida and Missouri should feel safely in the field right now. Kentucky, Ole Miss, Alabama, Tennessee, and Arkansas are still in the mix for an at large, but early losses could knock any of them out. The bracket sets up some interesting potential elimination games between bubble teams in this way, as there are potential quarterfinal matchups between Alabama and Tennessee, and Arkansas and Kentucky. The loser in these games will remain on the bubble until Sunday, but in my opinion would be out of the field. Ole Miss doesn't have the same kind of potential game, as Missouri should be safely in the field even with a loss, but Ole Miss will likely need to win at least once to keep their at large hopes alive.
My Predictions:
Yes, I am predicting total bubble carnage for the top teams here. Florida and Missouri are the best two teams in this conference, and the losses for each have come on the road. On a neutral floor I think they can both take care of business all the way to the final. Florida's talent on both sides of the ball should be able to secure the win in the championship game. Regarding the teams that can't afford early losses if they want to protect their at large spot, Ole Miss drew the probable match up against the second best team in this conference. Missouri fell to sixth because of a number of close losses in true road games, but they should be able to handle a neutral site better. Kentucky has been surviving on their home court without star big man Nerlens Noel, but since his injury that have not won away from their home court, including a 13 point loss to Arkansas in that span. Alabama and Tennessee will each need at least one good win in the tournament, and that would come if they play each other. After that, it may still be necessary to knock off Florida to get an at large look, and I don't see that happening on a neutral court. Depending how this tournament plays out, this conference could end up with anywhere between 2 and 6 teams in the final NCAA field.
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The Southland Conference Tournament will take place at a neutral site in Houston, Texas. Despite the terrific season top seed Stephen F. Austin has put together, it won't likely get any at large consideration if they lose again in the conference tournament, and therefore this will be a one-bid league going to the winner of this tournament. Two teams have already been eliminated from contention - Texas A&M-Corpus Christi as ineligible for the postseason, and Lamar just failed to make the cut with their regular season conference record. These eight teams will compete for the automatic bid to be the conference's lone representative in the NCAA Tournament.
My Predictions:
Stephen F. Austin has put together a very good season, using lock-down defense and a strong field goal percentage on their way to a 26-3 regular season record. But in two games this season with Northwestern State, they have one point win at home and a four point loss on the road. They struggle on the offensive end, and when playing a team with a strong offense their defense will keep it close but they are not built to pull away in an offensive game. Northwestern State scores more than any team in the country at 82.4 points per game, and when they don't score, they grab rebounds more than almost anyone at about 40 per game. That is a nightmare of a match up for Stephen F. Austin, and in the end I think Northwestern State can score the ball more than Stephen F. Austin can stop it to take the automatic bid from the Southland.
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The Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC) Tournament will take place at a neutral site in Garland, Texas. There isn't any at large consideration here, and this tournament will determine the lone representative of the SWAC in the NCAA Tournament. Three teams are already out of contention, as Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Mississippi Valley State, and Texas Southern are ineligible for the postseason. Texas Southern finished at the top of the regular season standings, but the postseason ban allows Southern to take the top seed.
My Predictions:
The most interesting story line here may be whether Grambling State can actually win a game...or maybe whether they can lose by single digits...they have done neither yet this year. A ten point loss is the closest they've come. But seriously, with the postseason bans in this conference, there is only one team remaining with a record over .500 in conference play. Southern has only lost three times in conference, and two of them were to banned teams. Two-seed Jackson State has a record of 10-17 on the season. There isn't much competition here, and I think Southern should roll through this tournament with relative ease.
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