Ok, so, serious question. Can we find 68 teams for the tournament this year? I realize there are 31 automatic bids that we have to give out, but that leaves 37 other teams that need to be put into the field. Bubble teams keep losing, and there was no shortage of bubble losses on Saturday. See below for a look at what the tournament candidates did in conference on Saturday.
In the Atlantic 10, Saint Louis is going to be the team to beat in this conference. After Saturday's win at George Washington, they have won eleven straight. A win in either of their final two games will clinch the top seed in the A10 Tournament. VCU proved they could beat anyone. We know Butler is good, they have already beat Indiana, Gonzaga, and Marquette this year, and VCU crushed them. There is no question about VCU's resume and they will get a boost to their seed with a performance like that. Butler has now dropped two straight to the top two teams in the conference and will need to turn it around to prevent their seed from dropping too far. Xavier's at large resume took another hit as they lost at home to Massachusetts. They are now hanging by a thread, and any more losses may cut that thread. They need wins in their last two against Saint Louis and Butler. Massachusetts was already in that scenario, and got the win in this game. They'll have to keep it up with wins the rest of the way to keep their at large hopes alive. Butler is next for them. Temple and La Salle took care of business at home against the lower tier of the conference to avoid bad losses. And if it wasn't clear already, Charlotte is done. Two bad losses after I said they needed to win out, they now need the automatic bid from the conference. Rhode Island has officially been eliminated from the A10 tournament as they can not finish in the top 12. One more team will miss the tournament, and with two games to play, Chartotte has fallen into a battle to just make the tournament, tied with Dayton and George Washington in the fight to avoid that final elimination spot.
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In the ACC, Duke got Ryan Kelly back just in time and they managed to avenge their loss to Miami. A big win for Duke as they're hunting for a 1-seed. Miami, also in the hunt for a 1-seed, won't fall out of contention after this game, and will still have time to move back into the top line. Elsewhere, Maryland keeps their slim at large hopes alive with a win over Wake Forest in a game where a loss would likely have ended their hopes.
In the Big 12, the game to watch was Kansas State at Baylor. Baylor needs good wins to have a legitimate at large chance and Kansas State would have provided that, but they lost. Baylor's last chance before the tournament will be home against Kansas, but they can't afford to lose at Texas before then. Kansas State's win keeps their hopes alive for the top seed in the Big 12 tournament, but they will need Kansas to lose in order to jump them. One other important game was Iowa State at Oklahoma. Iowa State coming off a disappointing loss at home to Kansas and needing to do something to guarantee their spot couldn't get it done at Oklahoma. Their next good chance is at home against Oklahoma State, and they may need a win there to feel good about their at large chances. If they can't get a win in that one they will need to make a run in the tournament. Oklahoma's win may provide them a bit of a boost in their tournament seed, but they would expect to win a home game like that. Elsewhere, Kansas cruises at home over West Virginia to continue making their own case for a top seed and Oklahoma State gets a win over Texas to hold ground.
In the Big East, Louisville picks up a big win at Syracuse and is starting to look like a serious contender for a 1-seed. The loss for Syracuse is three in a row, and after a good start their probable tournament seed is beginning to drop. In another matchup of ranked teams, Marquette gets another impressive win over Notre Dame and should get a boost to their seed. Notre Dame is officially out of the race for the top seed in the tournament. The win would have been a nice boost, but losing at Marquette won't knock them down too much. St Johns loss to Providence may eliminate their hopes for an at large. Winning out would be a requirement now, and they have to avoid an early tournament exit, but anything short of the automatic berth leaves no guarantees for them. Cincinnati was entering dangerous territory with their losing streak, but were able to stop the skid with a win over Connecticut. Their seed has been slipping but as long as they don't lose to South Florida in the season finale they shouldn't have to worry about missing the field. Georgetown took care of business against Rutgers to avoid a bad loss and remain in the hunt for a 1-seed.
The Big Ten went as expected Saturday. Illinois took down Nebraska, Minnesota hammered Penn State, and Indiana handled Iowa. In all cases it was merely teams avoiding a bad loss, and as harsh as it is for Iowa, a road loss to Indiana will take them out of at large consideration. They needed the massive win to remain in it and couldn't get it. Indiana's win will also keep them on pace for a 1-seed in the NCAA tournament.
In Conference USA, the only two teams with at large hopes got wins as Memphis downed UCF and Southern Miss beat ECU. Southern Miss is doing all they can for their at large hopes by not losing, but I think its too late for them and they'll need the automatic bid. Memphis is in a little bit better shape but the automatic bid would be best for them as well.
The Ivy League took an unexpected twist in the race for the bid between Harvard and Princeton. Harvard picked up a surprising road loss to Penn while Princeton took care of business at home against Dartmouth. If Princeton wins out the bid is theirs. Harvard will need Princeton to lose once and win out themselves just to force a one game playoff.
In the Missouri Valley, Creighton took down Wichita State at home to take the regular season title in the conference. Creighton will be an at large team if they fail to take the automatic bid in the conference, and despite the loss Wichita State should be in as well. They will want to make sure they don't lose early just to make sure, but they should be fine. Elsewhere in the conference, Indiana State made it perfectly clear they are not an at large team as they lose to Evansville. Despite some big wins this season, they will need the automatic bid to make the tournament.
In the Mountain West, nobody got a bigger win than Boise State over Colorado State. They needed a statement win, and that is what they got. Work isn't done yet for Boise State, but they are on the right path. Colorado State will take a bit of a hit on their projected seed, but doesn't have anything to worry about in their at large status. Air Force's at large potential is now done with a loss to Fresno State. They will need to win the conference tournament to get in. In the rest of the conference, New Mexico and UNLV picked up wins over the bottom of the conference to avoid bad losses.
In the Pac-12, UCLA records a season sweep over Arizona. For
UCLA, if there was any question of their NCAA tournament candidacy there
should not be anymore. This is a tournament team. They're currently
tied with Oregon at the top of the the Pac 12 and fighting for the top
seed in the tournament. On the other end, Arizona can not get
the top seed in the Pac 12, and their tournament seed is slowly dropping
with each loss. They'll need an impressive tournament to get it back
up. California has been very impressive in conference play, and with their win over Colorado I am officially calling them a tournament team. Colorado's
loss won't hold them out of the tournament, anything better than losing
the rest of the way and a first round tournament exit should see them
into the field without worry. Elsewhere in the conference, I am officially shutting the door on Arizona State's tournament chance after their loss to USC.
It
was not a good day to be a bubble team in the SEC. Alabama had a second
half lead at Florida, but faltered down the stretch. It is harsh to
penalize them too much for a road loss at Florida, but they need big
wins and they do not have them. Winning out is now a necessity, and
they're going to need to find a big win in the SEC tournament to have
any chance at an at large. Florida's win this game keeps their hopes alive for a 1-seed, but they need some losses elsewhere in the country to get back up there. Arkansas got a big win at Kentucky's expense. At a time any loss is damaging, Arkansas got a much needed win. On the other side, the loss hurts Kentucky's chances to just get in the field as an at large. Both teams need more wins moving forward. Tennessee had been on an impressive run to enter the at large discussion, but losing to Georgia undoes a lot of that run. Winning out is now a necessity, and a run in the SEC tournament is needed as well. Ole Miss did exactly what a bubble team can't do by losing to the bottom of the conference...for the second time this season. They now have losses to two teams tied for last in the conference. They are in the process of playing themselves out of the tournament, and need to win out to get back in. Missouri may have already been in the field, but unlike the rest of their conference, they avoided a bad loss to secure it.
In the WCC, the only two teams with at large possibilities did what they could on Saturday. Gonzaga remains in contention for a 1-seed with a win over Portland, and Saint Mary's remains in the at large hunt should they need it with a win over Santa Clara.
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A review of Sunday's games will come on Monday, and I will be getting the conference tournament brackets posted in the next couple days.
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