And we are here! Selection Sunday! It's been a long time coming, but with the completion of some significant games yesterday we have a pretty good idea of what the bracket will look like. Teams that clinched an automatic bid yesterday include Memphis in Conference USA, Albany in the America East, Southern in the SWAC, North Carolina A&T in the MEAC, Kansas in the Big 12, New Mexico in the Mountain West, Akron in the MAC, Louisville in the Big East, Northwestern State in the Southland, Montana in the Big Sky, Pacific in the Big West, Oregon in the Pac 12, and New Mexico State in the WAC. On the other side, teams eliminated from contention altogether yesterday include Vermont, Vanderbilt, Prairie View A&M, Morgan State, Ohio, Stephen F Austin, Weber State, UC Irvine, and Texas-Arlington.
The remaining losers yesterday were filtered into either "definitely in" or "on the bubble." Teams that lost that we are able to lock in include NC State, Butler, Indiana, Michigan State, Kansas State, UNLV, Syracuse, and UCLA. I don't think there is anything that needs explaining with these teams, they are all easily in the field. The losers from yesterday that move to the bubble include Southern Miss, Alabama, Maryland, and Massachusetts.
Four games remain today, as the championship games in the ACC (Miami vs North Carolina), SEC (Florida vs Ole Miss), Atlantic 10 (Saint Louis vs VCU), and Big Ten (Wisconsin vs Ohio State). Of these eight teams, only Ole Miss is not 100% locked into the field, but they have put themselves in the best position they can if they don't win today. However, an at large will not be guaranteed if they don't win today so they'll want to make sure they take the automatic bid if they can.
So, with all of that said, where does that leave us today? 27 teams have been locked in to-date with automatic bids. Another 27 have finished their pre-dance season with at large profiles that are good enough to feel confident locking them into the field to give us 54 locked in so far. Seven teams playing today can be added as locks to give us a field of 61 teams. That gives us seven spots remaining to be handed out among the "bubble" group.
---For a look at all of the teams, and a final prediction of who should be in the field, hit the jump.---
Bubble Profiles
With a number of teams to look at today, I'm sticking a little reference
guide here to avoid me rehashing the same point, and you re-reading the
same point. Here is what you want to see in the numbers:
RPI - Under 40 is ideal, but under 50 is still good. Something
in the 50's is average, but its when you get into the 60's and above
you're in dangerous territory.
SOS / Non-Conference SOS - Ideally, this will be under 100 in
both categories. Most major conference teams will have a respectable
Strength Of Schedule just from their conference play, at which time you
want to see the Non-Conference SOS down below 100. In the 100's is
average, but over 200 is pretty weak and undesirable.
Good Wins - Typically anything against RPI top 50 Teams
Bad Losses - Any losses outside the RPI top 100
Alabama
RPI - 60
SOS - 79
Non-Con SOS - 82
Good Wins - Villanova (51)
Bad Losses - Dayton (111), Mercer (141), Tulane (179), Auburn (254)
The Verdict - They are OUT. Too many bad losses and not enough big wins makes this a simple case.
Maryland
RPI - 69
SOS - 103
Non-Con SOS - 300
Good Wins - Duke x2 (1), NC State (32)
Bad Losses - Boston College (112), Georgia Tech (147)
The Verdict - When you play such a weak non-conference schedule you can't afford any slip ups. Not mentioned here is an 8-10 conference record, and when you mix that with a couple bad losses the few wins they have just isn't enough. They are OUT.
Massachusetts
RPI - 55
SOS - 71
Non-Con SOS - 75
Good Wins - La Salle (40), Temple (41)
Bad Losses - St Bonaventure (135), George Washington (144)
The Verdict - Too little, too late for UMass. Their big wins aren't big enough, or aren't as many as needed, and their bad losses hurt too much. With no games left this is too much to overcome, they are OUT.
Southern Miss
RPI - 34
SOS - 66
Non-Con SOS - 68
Good Wins - None
Bad Losses - UCF (102), Marshall (211)
The Verdict - When there is nothing to say for good wins, it means you're OUT. I don't understand how they get such good RPI and Schedule numbers without beating anyone, but the committee should see through that. No good wins on the season and a couple bad losses will leave them out.
Ole Miss
RPI - 50
SOS - 143
Non-Con SOS - 281
Good Wins - Missouri x2 (35)
Bad Losses - South Carolina (222), Mississippi St (230)
The Verdict - They might want to make sure of things today and take the automatic bid, because their schedule numbers are very bad. They didn't get much in the way of big wins, dropped two very bad games, and the committee has always said that a weak non-conference schedule could be a team's downfall. If they don't win today I would be inclined to keep them OUT.
Automatic Bids:
Gonzaga
Kansas
Louisville
New Mexico
Oregon
Memphis
Creighton
Belmont
Akron
New Mexico State
Davidson
Bucknell
Valparaiso
South Dakota St
Northwestern State
Harvard
Iona
Florida Gulf Coast
James Madison
Montana
Pacific
Liberty
Western Kentucky
Long Island
Albany
Southern
North Carolina A&T
At Large Locks:
Indiana
Duke
Georgetown
Michigan
Michigan State
Marquette
Syracuse
Kansas State
Arizona
Oklahoma State
UCLA
Pittsburgh
Notre Dame
UNLV
Colorado State
Butler
NC State
Illinois
San Diego State
Cincinnati
Colorado
Villanova
Missouri
Wichita State
Minnesota
Oklahoma
California
In-Championship Game Pending:
Ohio State
Wisconsin
Saint Louis
VCU
Miami (FL)
North Carolina
Florida
Bubble-Championship Game Pending:
Ole Miss
Bubble:
Temple
Middle Tennessee
Saint Mary's
Boise State
Baylor
La Salle
Virginia
Tennessee
Iowa State
Kentucky
Iowa
Southern Miss
Alabama
Maryland
Massachusetts
Final Verdict:
Everything leading up to today has left us with 61 teams in the field, and if we assume Florida takes care of business and wins the SEC tournament today, we have 7 spots available for the 16 bubble teams listed above. Of those 16, I would give Temple, Boise State, and Iowa State the final first round byes. In my recaps of bubble profiles over the past few days, I have not given enough IN verdicts to fill the field. So, this means two teams I previously wrote off will find their way into the field. With that said, my final four teams in the field, and the teams you will see in the first four are Middle Tennessee, La Salle, Tennessee, and Baylor. Decisions were reversed for Tennessee and Baylor due to their non-conference schedules and ability to pick up big wins late in the regular season, even if they fell short early in their tournaments. But with that said, these final two spots I could see going a number of different ways, and Ole Miss still has the opportunity to jump in with a win over Florida this afternoon.
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Check back again before the selection show today to see the final prediction, seeds included for all 68 teams.
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