We are running out of teams. After yesterday's games there are only 86 teams remaining alive for a bid, and 68 spots in the tournament. We only have 18 more teams to lose before the field is set. Before looking at the new at large contenders, we must pay our respects to the teams whose NCAA Tournament hopes officially ended yesterday: Boston College, Charlotte, LSU, Jackson State, UTEP, Bethune-Cookman, Southeast Louisiana, Nebraska, St Josephs, Kent State, Tulsa, North Dakota, Delaware State, Sam Houston State, Texas State, Western Michigan, Alabama A&M, Long Beach State, Florida State, Northern Colorado, Texas-San Antonio, Utah, and Cal Poly.
No teams received automatic bids yesterday, but a number of teams are moving into the field as their pre-tournament season ends, but their at large resume is too good to pass up. These teams include: Michigan, Illinois, Duke, Georgetown, San Diego State, Arizona, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Missouri, and Colorado State. Most of these teams should speak for themselves, but taking a quick moment to address the weakest of these resumes - Illinois hit a bad stretch in conference play and finished under .500 in conference. But their overall body of work leaves no questions. Six wins over the top 50, and four over the top 20 while playing the fifth most difficult schedule in the country will not only guarantee you a spot in the field, it should put you in pretty easily. Missouri is the other team of question, but they should be easily in as well. Despite their reputation for being unable to win away from home, they do have wins over VCU and Illinois on neutral sites this season, and haven't lost to anyone outside the top 100. I would put both of these teams somewhere in an 8-9 game, which would find them solidly in the field.
Bubble Interest:
Today's games feature a number of championships as automatic bids will be handed out in the America East, Big 12, Big East, Big Sky, Big West, Conference USA, MAC, MEAC, Mountain West, Pac-12, Southland, SWAC, and WAC conferences. If you are a fan of any team on the bubble, there are a few games you'll want to pay attention to:
Conference USA Championship - Memphis will be in the tournament regardless how this game ends up, while Southern Miss will likely need the automatic bid. So if Memphis wins, one bid league. If Southern Miss wins, two bid league. Bubble teams will be rooting hard for Memphis.
SEC Semifinals - Alabama is making a late push for an at large, but likely needs to beat Florida to have an at large case, and that would keep them alive for the automatic bid as well. On the other side, Ole Miss is on the verge of solidifying an at large, but a loss to Vanderbilt would still be damaging. Best case scenario for bubble teams would be a Florida and Vanderbilt win today, then a Florida win over Vanderbilt tomorrow to prevent a bid thief.
ACC Semifinals - Bubble teams now need Maryland to get out of this tournament as soon as possible. Every win moving forward gives them a little bit more of an at large case, and keeps them alive for the automatic bid. If you're rooting for any other bubble team, you're rooting for North Carolina today.
Atlantic 10 Semifinals - Massachusetts is threatening to sneak in and grab a last second bid. Bubble teams will want to see them out of this tournament today, for the same reasons as Maryland. A win for VCU over Massachusetts today would make many bubble teams feel better.
---hit the jump to see the bubble profiles for yesterday's losers---
Bubble Profiles
With a number of teams to look at today, I'm sticking a little reference guide here to avoid me rehashing the same point, and you re-reading the same point. Here is what you want to see in the numbers:
RPI - Under 40 is ideal, but under 50 is still good. Something in the 50's is average, but its when you get into the 60's and above you're in dangerous territory.
SOS / Non-Conference SOS - Ideally, this will be under 100 in both categories. Most major conference teams will have a respectable Strength Of Schedule just from their conference play, at which time you want to see the Non-Conference SOS down below 100. In the 100's is average, but over 200 is pretty weak and undesirable.
Good Wins - Typically anything against RPI top 50 Teams
Bad Losses - Any losses outside the RPI top 100
La Salle
RPI - 40
SOS - 79
Non-Con SOS - 110
Good Wins - Butler (17), VCU (25), Villanova (51)
Bad Losses - Central Connecticut State (198)
Verdict - La Salle lost their first game of the conference
tournament to Butler. Not a bad loss by any means, but a win might have
locked them up. But they have gotten good wins and avoided bad losses since their early season debacle against Central Connecticut State. Villanova's surge has given their early season win some added meaning, and big conference wins over Butler and VCU are impressive as well. With the only negative on their resume coming almost four months ago, I think they are IN.
Temple
RPI - 41
SOS - 58
Non-Con SOS - 76
Good Wins - Syracuse (11), Saint Louis (23), VCU(25), La Salle (40), Villanova (51)
Bad Losses - Canisius (114), St Bonaventure (133), Duquesne (228)
Verdict - If it wasn't for the losses, there would be no question here. Bad losses raise questions not every team is able to answer, but I think Temple did answer them on the back of their good wins. There is too much good here to leave them out, I have them IN.
Virginia
RPI - 74
SOS - 127
Non-Con SOS - 294
Good Wins - Duke (1), North Carolina (19), NC State (28), Wisconsin (35)
Bad Losses - Boston College (113), Delaware (147), Georgia Tech (147), George Mason (159), Wake Forest (168), Clemson (181), Old Dominion (318)
Verdict -When I start writing a novel about all of the bad losses they have, it is not a good sign. The only thing they have to lean on is a number of good wins throughout the season, because everything else is bad. RPI is too high (worst RPI to ever make the tournament is 74, they're flirting with history), their schedule out of conference is horrendous, and of course bad losses. There is just too much wrong here to reward a few good wins. I think they're OUT.
Iowa State
RPI - 45
SOS - 41
Non-Con SOS - 129
Good Wins - Kansas State (18), Oklahoma State (26), Oklahoma x2 (42)
Bad Losses - Texas (112), Texas Tech (213)
Verdict - They played Kansas into overtime twice this season, losing both times. Those games aren't going to help since a loss is a loss, but the question is how much will missing out on one of those wins hurt? They were able to get some big wins to replace them, but they've also got some ugly losses. Ultimately, I think they're IN as they can boast a few more big wins than their competition, but they don't have a lot of room to spare.
Tennessee
RPI - 57
SOS - 47
Non-Con SOS - 47
Good Wins - Florida (8), Missouri (34), Wichita State (38)
Bad Losses - Georgia x2 (137)
Verdict - Getting swept by Georgia is never a good thing when you're trying to make an at large case. They have wins to counter it, but not necessarily enough. When piling up a large number of losses, no matter against who, you need big wins. I think 12 losses is too many, especially when two of them are to Georgia, to only boast three good wins, and ultimately I think they stay OUT.
Kentucky
RPI - 56
SOS - 73
Non-Con SOS - 75
Good Wins - Florida (8), Missouri (34), Ole Miss (50)
Bad Losses - Texas A&M (99), Georgia (137), Vanderbilt (110)
Verdict - Kentucky has essentially done exactly as much good as bad for their profile to end the season. Alternating good wins and bad losses down the stretch, but what they could not afford to do is pick up a bad loss in their final display of the season. Losing to Vanderbilt in the conference tournament is the sticking point that I think keeps them OUT.
Iowa
RPI - 78
SOS - 124
Non-Con SOS - 313
Good Wins - Minnesota (31), Wisconsin (35), Illinois (37), Iowa State (45)
Bad Losses - Nebraska (97), Purdue (127), Virginia Tech (172)
Verdict - No team has come closer to recording a number of big wins than Iowa, as they have plenty of close losses to Michigan State, Indiana, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and again to Michigan State in the tournament. Whats the saying though...close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. They deserve credit for finishing .500 in the best conference in the country, but it won't be enough. They're all losses in the end, and in the end Iowa has a bad RPI, bad Schedule, and bad losses that will keep them OUT.
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With only one more day until selection Sunday, be sure to come back before the selection show tomorrow. I will officially have my predictions for the field and seeding to be judged at selection time.
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