Conferences to Date - Part 4 - MEAC, MVC, MWC, NEC, OVC, Pac-12, Patriot

Continuing our look through all of the conferences.  For the first three parts, check the archives on the right in February, and for a full list of all teams by conference check the countdown to 68 above.


Beginning with another one-bid league, the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC) is not typically a big contender on the national stage, but it was only last year that the conference had one of the biggest upsets in the history of the tournament, with Norfolk State knocking off Missouri in the first round as a 15-seed.  They will only be getting one bid this year, from the conference tournament champion, but whoever it is would love to repeat a feat like that.  All 13 teams in the conference will make the conference tournament with a chance to take that automatic bid.  The teams, in order of current standings are: Norfolk State, North Carolina Central, Savannah State, Hampton, Delaware State, Morgan State, Bethune Cookman, North Carolina A&T, Florida A&M, Howard, Coppin State, Maryland-Eastern Shore, and South Carolina State.  The tournament will take place from March 11-16, with the automatic bid handed out in the final on March 16.  The televised broadcast is still TBD.

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The Missouri Valley Conference often puts some pretty good teams into the tournament.  There should be at least a couple representatives from the MVC in the NCAA tournament this year, but many of the teams will require the automatic bid to become one of those representatives.  All ten teams will make the tournament, and of those ten Northern Iowa, Evansville, Illinois State, Bradley, Drake, Missouri State, and Southern Illinois will require the automatic bid in order to get in.  They will have their chance until they are eliminated during the tournament, which will be held March 7-10, and the automatic bid awarded on March 10 as the championship is televised on CBS.

At Large Contenders:
Wichita State has led this conference for much of the season, but some perplexing losses have left them tied with Creighton, and only a head to head showdown remaining in the regular season.  Losses to Evansville (twice) and Southern Illinois have hurt the Shockers, but overall they should be safe to make the tournament.  They will want to avoid an early exit in the conference tournament to make sure though, and winning the automatic bid would only improve a seed that has likely been falling with some of their bad losses.

Creighton had a very good start to the season, but has struggled down the stretch.  They are only .500 over their past 12 games, and do not have an impressive win since a December 15 victory over California.  They do have wins over Akron and Wisconsin as well, but they would have cause to be concerned if they lose the regular season finale to Wichita State and have an early exit in the conference tournament.  Winning over Wichita State would make them feel better, but taking the automatic bid from the conference would be the safest route into the tournament for Creighton at this point.

Indiana State has the most impressive win in the conference with an early season victory over Miami (FL), and also has beat both Creighton and Wichita State this season to enter the at large discussion.  But they also have an enormous amount of bad losses, more than almost anyone could expect to get away with.  They have lost to Illinois State, Drake (twice), Morehead State, Southern Illinois, Missouri State, and Bradley.  It remains to be seen how much the Miami win will help, but they will need to win their regular season finale at Evansville, then take a pretty deep run in the conference tournament in order to get a serious look again.  Even that may not be enough though, with the amount of bad losses on their profile, they may require the automatic bid in order to get in regardless how they finish the season.

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The Mountain West has become one of the best basketball conferences in the country despite not having many household names.  The computer rankings love this conference, as they feature some of the best RPIs in the country.  Of the nine members in their conference, all of them will compete in the conference tournament, and only Wyoming, Nevada, and Fresno State are completely out of the running for an at large bid and would require the automatic bid to make the tournament.  The tournament will take place March 12-16, with the championship game televised on March 16 on CBS.

New Mexico has had a very impressive season so far.  They currently have the second best RPI in the country, a number of impressive wins and only one questionable loss at home to decent South Dakota State team.  They have just about clinched the top seed for the Mountain West tournament, and a win in any of their three remaining games would do it.  Of course, they'll have their eyes on winning all of their remaining games, and if they can get through the rest of the season unbeaten and take the conference tournament automatic bid, they could wind up in the discussion for a 1-seed.

Colorado State has improved over the past few seasons and become a serious contender in a strong conference.  They are solidly in the field at this point, and aside from a bad loss in early December to Illinois-Chicago, they have a great profile.  As long as they don't slip up to end the season they'll wind up with a favorable seed, and if they can win the conference tournament they will be poised to make a run in the NCAA tournament from a potential top 4 seed.

UNLV is another team solidly in the tournament field already and just looking to improve their seed at the end of the season.  Aside from a bad loss at Fresno State, this team has looked good all season.  A strong finish should give them a good seed in the tournament, and if they're the ones to claim the automatic bid in the Mountain West they'll end up with a favorable seed as well.

San Diego State is in a very similar position.  They don't have the bad loss that Colorado State and UNLV had, but they did get swept by UNLV and split with Colorado State.  They don't have much reason to worry about missing the tournament and are playing for their seed at this point.  Their scenario is much the same as UNLV, if they end up winning the Mountain West tournament they'll have a seed to be quite happy with.

Boise State would probably not be in the field if the tournament started today, but fortunately for them, they have some excellent opportunities to put themselves in.  Wins over Creighton and UNLV to date look good, but they also have losses to Utah and Nevada that don't look so good.  But Boise's next three games to close out the season are Colorado State, UNLV, and San Diego State.  If they manage to win at least two, if not all three of those, their at large chances would be much improved.  Anything less than that, they would probably need a deep run in the tournament if not the automatic bid in order to make the field.

Air Force has put together a good season so far, but they'll need to improve on it if they want to make the field with the automatic bid.  They have one bad loss at Nevada, but besides that none of their other losses are that bad.  But nine decent losses is still a larger than desirable number at this point in the season.  They have wins over San Diego State and UNLV, and chances to improve their resume with a road game at San Diego State and home game with New Mexico.  They'll need at least one if not both of those to remain in the at large discussion in addition to not slipping up on a road trip to Fresno State.  If they can't finish the season strong in these games they will likely need to take the automatic bid if they want to make the tournament.

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The Northeast Conference is another one bid league this season, as the conference tournament champion will be the lone representative in the NCAA Tournament.  Of the twelve teams in this conference, only eight make the tournament.  So far, Fairleigh Dickinson, St Francis (PA), and Monmouth have been eliminated from contention.  While St Francis (NY) and Sacred Heart are fighting to be the eighth team in the conference tournament field, the seven teams that have already clinched a spot in the conference tournament are Robert Morris, Bryant, Wagner, Long Island, Quinnipiac, Mount Saint Marys, and Central Connecticut.  Robert Morris will be the top seed and favorite in the tournament, but as always, and team could take the automatic bid until they are eliminated.  The Northeast Conference tournament differs than many others in that after the first round, teams are reseeded so the highest remaining team plays the lowest remaining seed.  The tournament takes place from March 6-12, with the championship game and automatic bid handed out on March 12.  The televised broadcast is still TBD.

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The Ohio Valley Conference has been a source of first round upsets in some recent tournaments, and they have some candidates to do it again.  Typically, its not a conference to get an at large bid, but should Belmont fail to win the conference tournament that may change.  Only the top eight teams in this twelve team conference will make the tournament.  Jacksonville State is ineligible to participate due to low Academic Progress Ratings, and Austin Peay and Tennessee Tech have already been eliminated from contention.  One of SIU Edwardsville, Eastern Illinois, or Tennessee-Martin will be the other team left out.  Of the teams that have already clinched a spot in the conference tournament field, Murray State, Eastern Kentucky, Tennessee State, Morehead State, and Southeast Missouri State will need the automatic bid in order to make the NCAA Tournament.  The tournament will take place from March 6-9, with the automatic bid being awarded March 9 on ESPN2.

At Large Contenders:
Belmont gets rare consideration as an at large contender from the Ohio Valley Conference in their first year as a member.  They have a good win over Middle Tennessee State, but also bad losses to Northeastern, UCF, Tennessee State, and Murray State.  The bad losses to good wins doesn't look very promising for Belmont, but with their RPI of 25 as of March 1, they would have a chance.  Only once before has a team with an RPI under 30 failed to get an at large bid when they didn't win their conference tournament (Missouri State in 2006, RPI 21).  History looks to help Belmont, although another loss may drop their RPI outside of 30, but if they want to make sure they avoid any chance at becoming the second team they should count on taking the conference's automatic bid from the conference tournament.

BID THIEF ALERT: Belmont is certainly no lock if they fail to win the conference tournament, but if any other team takes the automatic bid, Belmont enters the at large pool with a possibility of taking a spot from another team in the country.

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The Pac-12 in recent years has come close to a one bid league with some less than impressive basketball.  This year however, they boast a few tournament worthy teams with half of them at least in the discussion for an at large bid.  All twelve teams will participate in the conference tournament, with Washington State, Oregon State, Utah, Stanford, Washington, and USC needing the automatic bid in order to make the tournament.  The tournament will take place March 13-16, with the championship game being televised on March 16 on ESPN.

At Large Contenders:
Oregon leads the conference to date and in addition to playing for the top seed in the conference tournament, is playing for their seed in the NCAA tournament.  There is no concern about this team missing the tournament at this point.  They have one bad loss on the season to UTEP, but also wins over Arizona, UCLA, and UNLV.  Their seed could move in either direction depending how they finish the season, but a conference tournament championship should give them a very good seed in the NCAA tournament.

UCLA is right on the heels of Oregon for the top spot in the conference.  They are solidly in the field at this point and playing for seed in addition to a regular season conference title.  They have a pretty bad loss to Cal Poly early in the season and a home conference loss to USC, but also good wins over Arizona, Colorado, and Missouri.  Winning the conference tournament certainly isn't needed to get in the field, but they would love to have the boost to their seed.

Arizona was a contender for a 1-seed for much of the season, but there is not much hope of getting back to that point after a number of losses to unranked teams in conference.  They do still have an opportunity to get at least a share of the regular season title, and winning out and taking the automatic bid for the conference would likely get them back to the 2-line.

Colorado has put themselves in good position to make the tournament for a second consecutive year.  With only a single bad loss (at Utah) and a few good wins led by Arizona and Colorado State, this definitely has the look of a tournament team.  They have a few mid level losses that are hurting their seed a bit at this point, but nothing that should keep them out of the tournament.  If they could win the Pac-12 tournament it would really help their seeding, but they should be in regardless.

California has used an impressive late season run to not only work themselves into the at large conversation, but also into the probable field.  They are not safe yet though, as an end of season collapse could still push them out.  But with two home games to end the season, they should have a good opportunity to take care of business.  If they make a run in the conference tournament, they shouldn't need the automatic bid to get into the tournament, but they certainly have room to improve their seed and a Pac-12 tournament championship would do just that.

Arizona State has been close to an at large candidate all year, but a late season collapse is currently pushing them the wrong way.  Losses to DePaul and Utah this season are hurting them, although they have some good wins with a sweep of Colorado, UCLA, and California helping them out.  Their computer numbers are not very good though, and it may take consecutive wins to end the season at USC and at Arizona to get them on the right side of the bubble.  They will probably need a little bit of a run in the conference tournament at least, and winning it all may be what it takes to get into the field this year.

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The Patriot League produced a great moment in last year's tournament when Lehigh knocked off Duke as a 15-seed.  Someone from this conference will be looking to have a similar opportunity, but it will be only one team as this is a one bid conference.  Bucknell has many qualities of an at large candidate, including an RPI in the 50s, but looking at their profile, they have four bad losses to Princeton, Lehigh, Penn State, and Lafayette, and only one good win over La Salle.  They have had a good year, but they have no more opportunities for good wins in their conference, and if they were to lose in the conference tournament, a necessity if they were to warrant an at large, it would be a fifth bad loss.  So, they will be one of the eight teams in the conference competing for the only spot in the NCAA tournament this league will get.  The others are Lafayette, Lehigh, Army, American, Colgate, Holy Cross, and Navy.  Bucknell will be the favored of the bunch, but until they lose in the tournament any one of them could take the automatic bid.  The tournament will be held from March 6-13, with the championship game on March 13 televised on CBS Sports Network.

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I hope to get the rest of the conferences up tomorrow, at which time we can begin taking a closer look at the way the conference tournaments are shaping up and the games upcoming that will shape the way things fall into place for Championship Week and Selection Sunday.