Bracket Reaction and First Thoughts

And we're off.  The least productive week in businesses all over the United States has begun.  Seriously, I wonder if anyone has ever done an official study on that, but the simple fact is that millions of people across the country are spending Monday to Wednesday ignoring their jobs just to do research on brackets and put together the optimal combination of teams that will be the most fun to tear up when it inevitably goes wrong.  Then of course, games tip off at noon on Thursday, certainly no time to get any work done then.  But by then, no one cares.  Managers will taunt their employees about that 11 over 6 first round upset that they correctly picked (but leave out that they swung and missed for the fourth straight year on that 14 seed) while phones go unanswered and profits dip.  But maybe that is what this week is about, so first lets take some time to reflect on what the committee gave us to work with, then we can down to business.

Reaction:
None of the teams that made the field surprised me at all.  I had 67 teams marked as locked or bubble IN as we were going through Championship Week.  That 68th team I had to pull from the list I marked as OUT.  I chose Tennessee, the committee went with St Marys.  Frankly I didn't think either one should have made the field based on the regular season, but someone had to be the 68th team and I'm not going to nitpick about which one got it.

The teams that were left out have nothing to complain about.  No one got the shaft, as I said I think St Mary's was simply lucky to be included, but the teams left out have no one to blame but themselves:

• Virginia - when you schedule so poorly out of conference it is in your best interest to at least beat the lowly teams you play.  When given a second chance in conference it is in your best interest to beat the lowly teams you play.  Seven losses to these lowly teams in and out of conference doomed you.
• Maryland - Beating Duke twice is impressive, but please don't pretend like that is the entire season.  When you play the 300th ranked non-conference schedule, then can't finish .500 in conference, that's on you.
• Kentucky - We understand how losing Nerlens Noel affected you.  You made it quite clear when you failed to win away from home every game you played without him.  You had chances to prove you could adjust to life without him, but four double digit losses to non-tournament teams is not proof, it is a reason to not be here.

I could keep going, but I won't.  The point is, every team not in the field has given plenty of reasons why they should not be included.  Hopefully they learned a lesson, whether it is get out and play someone in the non-conference, or take care of business against the lowly teams you play, the overall point remains the same - the reason you are not in the tournament now is your own doing.

I will say the same thing everyone else is saying about Oregon - ouch.  3-0 against the top seeded Pac-12 teams UCLA and Arizona, Pac-12 tournament champions, a road win over fifth seeded UNLV, and only a single bad loss on the entire season.  The committee explained they had to be dropped from their initially placed spot at 11 because of the play in game.  So, ouch, their season only warrants an 11?  Perhaps I predicted them a bit high at a 7, but they should feel a little insulted.

The rest of the seeding doesn't bother me too much, I think my prediction was within 2 seeds on every other team in the field, so there isn't much to complain about how it shook out.  I'm a bit surprised Kansas got the second overall 1-seed with a loss to TCU on their resume and not being that far removed from an embarrassment at Baylor, but ultimately it doesn't matter too much.  Kansas was going to the South region either way.

---hit the jump for info about filling out the bracket, first thoughts, and upset alerts---



Filling out the Bracket
Whether you're in a money pool or you're doing this for fun, there are some general things to consider to get the most out of your predictions:

Don't go crazy with early upsets - No matter what format your pool takes, one thing is typically always true: the meat of the obtainable points come deeper in the tournament.  The people that win pools will be the ones that can correctly identify the teams that make the elite 8, final four, and course, the champion.  So while it may be more fun to correctly identify the big upsets, it is much more valuable to find the deep runs.

Don't take no upsets either - There is a happy-medium between too many upsets and no upsets.  Find it.  Probably the most quoted fact about march madness is that "there has only been one year in history all four 1-seeds made the final four."  And its true this year more than any other, the top seeds are all vulnerable.  Some upsets will happen, the trick is finding where and when.  Oh, and one more thing, if you're in a competitive pool and you don't pick any upsets at all, people will make fun of you.  Just saying.

What to do with school loyalty - If you're like me, you may end up with 10 or 15 different brackets, but there is always one FINAL bracket.  So should your bracket follow your loyalty, or your brain?  When in doubt, go with your head.  If you're in doubt whether your school can win a particular game, make them lose.  Worst case scenario, your bracket is busted and you can continue rooting for your school, or your school is out and your bracket is still in tact.  Anyway, if you, as a loyal biased fan, is in doubt of their ability to win, they're probably doomed.

First instincts never fail - Well that just isn't true.  But notice how no one ever ends up with a perfect (or in most cases, even respectable) bracket no matter how much research they do?  No matter how much research you do, there is no guarantee it will be more correct than your gut feeling the first time you look at the bracket.  Three out of the last four years, my first instincts bracket has beat my research-modified "final" bracket.  And if research actually paid off every year I wouldn't still be bragging about that one really good bracket I had back in 2008.

So now that I have appropriately told everyone to stop listening to me and go with their gut, lets take a look at who should be on first round upset alert:

• Six seeds.  Seriously, it wouldn't surprise me if every single one of them lost their first game.  Belmont loves to shoot the three while Arizona doesn't like to defend it.  UCLA doesn't rebound well while Minnesota grabs offensive rebounds.  St Mary's is a team I tried to keep out of the field, but now that they're in they should love their matchup (assuming they beat Middle Tennessee).  The only team in this entire field that Memphis has beaten is Harvard.  And finally, Bucknell plays solid defense and slows the game down.  A close game in March is never good news for the higher seed.
• The 12-5 games are the classic upset alert matchups.  At least one happens just about every year, and often there are multiple 12 seeds moving on.  Oklahoma State ended up on the wrong end of Oregon's gross under-seeding.  12-seed California gets to play 5-seed UNLV close to home, and 12-seed Ole Miss just finished a run through the SEC to get a date with 5-seed Wisconsin.  In my opinion, VCU is the safest of the 5-seeds, as they force turnovers and Akron is missing their starting point guard, but no one is ever truly safe.
• In the rest of the bracket, the winner of Boise State or La Salle is a dangerous 13 seed, as they have both beat some strong teams already and Kansas State should be prepared for a tough fight.  And my big upset to watch for is 14-seed Davidson over 3-seed Marquette.  Granted, I have never actually picked a 14 over 3 and I quit putting them in my brackets, but Davidson has played plenty of big name teams this season, and were within a couple possessions of Gonzaga and New Mexico late in the game.  They won't be intimidated by a high seed and have the ability to run with them.

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Enjoy the bracket making, and keep in mind - no picks are worse than anyone else's until the games are played....unless you pick all of the favorites.  Cheers!