The Countdown - Yesterday's Eliminated, Bubble Teams, and At Larges

And here we go.  We dropped from 152 to 109 teams remaining after yesterday's games, meaning there are only 41 more teams to lose before we have our final field.  Taking a look at yesterday's losers, the following teams have been eliminated with no legitimate at large case: Penn State, Georgia Tech, Richmond, Georgia, UAB, Alabama St, Virginia Tech, Dayton, Texas Tech, Arizona State, Idaho, UC Santa Barbara, Mississippi State, Houston, Northern Arizona, Denver, UC Davis, Hampton, McNeese State, Buffalo, Purdue, Xavier, Texas, Tulane, Wake Forest, Arkansas, Southern Utah, Oral Roberts, Savannah State, George Washington, CS Fullerton, Alcorn State, Northwestern, Louisiana Tech, Eastern Michigan, East Carolina, Clemson, Montana State, Texas A&M, Utah State, Hawaii, and Washington.

Among these losers, there are a few interesting notes to point out:

1. For anyone who did not see Richmond's loss to Charlotte, watch this video. 

http://video.nbcsports.msnbc.com/nbc-sports/51182621#51182621

This is the most ridiculous ending of a game I've ever seen.  With five seconds to go, a team down by three ends up winning the game by five in regulation.  Before yesterday I didn't know that was possible.  I would have expected to see a game end with back to back half court shots before that.  Ultimately, this game means very little for the NCAA tournament unless Charlotte runs the table, but if you haven't seen the end of this game, its worth watching.

2. Arkansas's loss to Vanderbilt eliminates them from any at large consideration, but how does it affect Kentucky?  Kentucky was set to play the winner of this game with the possible scenario of a win gets them in and a loss kicks them out.  A loss eliminates them in my book, but when considering a win over Vanderbilt or a win over Arkansas, I would have to think Kentucky would rather be playing Arkansas.  Beating Vanderbilt does nothing for Kentucky besides avoid elimination for another day, while beating Arkansas would at least avenge a previous loss and add something of note to the profile.  Winning today over Vanderbilt and losing tomorrow may hurt Kentucky just as much as losing to Arkansas would have today, especially if the semifinal games is against fellow bubbler Ole Miss.

3. What happened to Louisiana Tech?  Their collapse is complete, and I know I'm not the only one that saw it coming, but this team just went from cruise control in the conference, ranked in the AP poll, to falling flat on their face.  They now dropped three straight games to eliminate their at large chance, then their automatic bid chance.

---hit the jump for the bubble and at large teams from yesterday's losers---


Baylor At Large Profile:
Close.  So close, but ultimately Baylor's loss is just that - a loss.  Not a bad loss, but still a loss when they needed a big win.  So here they are, done playing and on the bubble.  Do they deserve an at large spot in the field?  Lets take a look.

RPI - As of Friday morning they're at 65.  That is not a good sign for Baylor.  In the last 20 years, there have only been four teams to receive an at large bid with a worse RPI.  So on the bright side, it happens.  But its not a positive trend for Baylor.

SOS - A bright spot for Baylor.  They played the number 14 strength of schedule in the country, and 47 nonconference strength of schedule.  Those are the numbers the committee likes to see, and Baylor will be leaning on them.

History - It happens, it just doesn't happen often.  In the past, as mentioned with RPI, only four teams have made the tournament with a worse RPI than Baylor.  Their 14 losses match the most losses an at large team has ever had (six times in the past 25 years an at large team has had 14 losses, but only once in the past ten years).  There are small slivers of hope here, but history shows this to be the exception, not the norm.

Good Wins - Their regular season finale win (slaughter) of Kansas is big.  They add it on to a victory over Oklahoma State and a road win at Kentucky.  Having a few like this is good, but they have 11 losses among the top 50 RPI, so there is a lot of opportunity lost there.

Bad Losses - Losses to Texas, Charleston, and Northwestern all look bad at this point in the season, in addition to just the sheer number of losses on their profile (14).

The Verdict - Too many losses and too high of an RPI.  In order to make these numbers work, you have to balance it out with more big wins and fewer bad losses.  I don't think there is enough here for Baylor, and they will be OUT.


At Large Teams
A number of teams went down yesterday in their conference tournaments to finish their season, but some of them can feel good enough about their chances to make the field as an at large we can lock them in place now.  Taking a look at what locks each of these teams in:

Cincinnati stumbled down the stretch, but they never picked up a truly bad loss.  Nine of their eleven losses were to teams in the top 50, and the other two were in the top 100.  Six top 50 wins of their own is enough to clinch their spot in the field.

It may be fortunate for Minnesota that there is more to the season than conference play, but there is and because of that there is no chance they miss out on an at large.  Their number 2 strength of schedule (12 non conference) and 30 RPI are great numbers.  They may have hit a skid in conference play, but they still got some big wins, including Indiana and Michigan State among their five top 50 wins.  They're in.

Oklahoma ended the season with losses to Texas and TCU in their last four games, followed by a first game tournament loss to Iowa State.  Its certainly not a strong finish, but in comparison to other teams on the bubble they don't need to worry.  They finished 11-7 in the conference, wins over Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Iowa State, RPI of 41, and SOS 19 (16 non conference).  There aren't enough teams that can out do that season now to suggest Oklahoma wouldn't make it.


Pittsburgh is an easy case.  12-6 in the Big East, 24-8 overall, six top 50 wins and only one bad loss.  Easy.

Colorado has a couple bad losses on the year, but nothing else to worry about.  Four top 50 wins, a SOS at 20 (46 non conference) and 39 RPI are solid at large numbers.  Like Oklahoma, there just aren't enough other teams that could catch them now.

I would say Villanova is an easier case than a lot of people give them credit for.  Thirteen losses isn't ideal, but only two could really be considered bad, and wins over Syracuse, Louisville, Marquette, and Georgetown are better than any bubble team could boast.  This is a tournament team.

California certainly didn't end the season the way they wanted, picking up a bad loss in their final game, but it was their first really bad loss this season.  Five top 50 wins more than make up for that, they shouldn't have to worry, they'll be in.


Marquette tied for the Big East regular season title.  Does any more need to be said?  In case it does, their RPI is 12.  This is not just a tournament team, this will be a highly seeded tournament team.