Conference Tournaments Preview - Big South and Horizon

Before we get into the meat of what today is really about, let me say one thing.  If I had a dollar for every time I told a team they can't afford to lose a game and they did....well, I've only been saying it for about a week, but I think I'm starting to afford a pretty nice dinner for myself at least.  Baylor - you could not afford to lose to Texas last night.  Snap judgement: beat Kansas or win the Big 12 tournament.  Any other scenario will not put you in the NCAA tournament this year.  In the other two games of note last night, the favorites did what was required of them as Kansas took care of Texas Tech in convincing fashion and Louisville put away Cincinnati.  Both of these teams are hunting for 1-seeds, and neither one gave anyone any reason to think they don't deserve it based solely on yesterday's performances.  Cincinnati, now 2-6 in their last eight games, is not doing themselves any favors.  While a road loss at Louisville shouldn't knock them down much, and as long as they can take care of South Florida at home shouldn't be worried about missing the tournament; they might want to win a couple games just to remember what it feels like before the NCAA tournament if nothing else.

Now, for the true meaning of the day: Today marks the official beginning of Championship Week!  With the first rounds of the first conference tournaments beginning today, we can officially start the countdown to the field of 68.  Entering today, we had 304 teams alive for 68 spots in the field, with 31 spots going to the conference tournament winners and 37 spots going to at large teams remaining from teams that did not win their tournament.  Every day until Selection Sunday on March 17, more teams will be eliminated.  As they are eliminated from their conference tournaments, only then will we evaluate their at large chances and they will either be placed into the field as an At Large Lock, on the bubble, or eliminated from contention entirely.  See the tabs above to follow the conference tournament brackets, or follow the status of all teams in the countdown to 68.  Today, the tournament begins for the Big South and the Horizon League.  Seven teams will be eliminated between these two conferences by day's end.  So, without further ado, lets take a look at these two conferences.

---follow the jump for the tournament previews and predictions---




And we're off as play begins at Noon ET in the Big South.  The bracket for the conference tournament breaks down as shown, and you can see my official predictions for how this bracket will play out below.  The Big South Tournament is being played in its entirely at Coastal Carolina.  That's right, 9-7 in conference play and the fourth seed in the South division gets to host the whole thing.  There is only one bid available for this conference, so whoever can run the table here will be the conference representative in the NCAA Tournament.  Charleston Southern and High Point each finished 12-4 in conference, and get the top two seeds as the winners of their respective divisions.  Gardner-Webb finished the season with the best overall record at 20-11, and a game back in the conference standings.  VMI is one of the top offensive teams in the country, as they currently stand 10th in points per game and 28th in assists, and also rank 35th in the country in rebounds per game.  They do make up for it by allowing a lot of points on defense, however.  With 12 teams alive and no at large candidates, one loss is all it takes for elimination now.  Keep reading for how I see this tournament playing out.

My Prediction:



First Round Analysis:
Coastal Carolina gets a huge boost by getting to play on their home court.  They may have finished 9-7 in conference and only 11-14 overall against Division I teams, but all season they only lost three times on their home court, and only once in conference.  That should get them by Liberty, who was a mere 6-10 in conference and 11-20 overall.

Campbell and Presbyterian played once this year, and it resulted in a lopsided win for Campbell on Presbyterian's home court.  Playing on a neutral court should result in a similar result.

In a matchup of two teams that don't score very much, I see Winthrop prevailing with their defense.  Radford has given up points this year, while Winthrop has only allowed a team to reach 70 once since early January.  It may not matter if Winthrop can't score, but I see their defense giving them an edge.

UNC Asheville has almost as many wins away from home this year (6) as Longwood has total wins (7).  Advantage Asheville.

Quarterfinal Analysis:
While High Point did win in the only matchup against Coastal Carolina this season, it was at High Point.  High Point has since lost its leading scorer to a season ending injury, and Coastal Carolina has an advantage playing on their home court.  I think they knock off the top seed here.

Gardner-Webb ended the season as winners in ten of their final eleven games.  A significant difference over Campbell, who comes in as losers in nine of their final eleven games.

Charleston Southern split against Winthrop this season, with each team winning on their home court.  On a neutral court, its Charleston's offense against Winthrop's defense, and I give the advantage to the offense of Charleston who finished top of their division for a reason this season at 12-4 in conference.  Winthrop's defense will get some stops but their offense will have a hard time keeping up.

UNC Asheville has the lower seed in this matchup because of the separate divisions, but actually finished with a better record in conference at 10-6 than VMI's 8-8.  They won the only matchup this season between the two on the road at VMI, and has an offense that can keep up with VMI.  I see Asheville with a significant advantage in this game to move on.

Semifinal Analysis:
I mentioned Coastal Carolina only lost once at home in conference this season, and that was to Gardner-Webb.  I think the home court run ends here as Gardner-Webb's impressive winning streak to end the season carries them into the final.

Charleston Southern swept UNC Asheville this season, and as one of the best rebounding teams in the country (22nd overall with 39 per game) and a high powered offense, should keep Asheville from second chance points and be able to pull away for the third time this year.

Championship Game Analysis:
In the two times they played this year, Gardner Webb and Charleston Southern played into overtime, and Gardner-Webb finished on top both times.  If this does end up being the championship game it should be a great game to watch, but with Gardner-Webb's hot finish to the season I see them getting a third win over Charleston Southern and clinching the automatic bid for the conference.

Horizon



The first round of the Horizon tournament will be hosted by the higher seed, the quarterfinals and semifinals at the top seed - Valparaiso, and the final hosted by the highest remaining seed.  Both Detroit and Valparaiso have solid RPI rankings, but won't have any chance for an at large bid, so there will only be one team coming out of this conference into the tournament - the winner of this tournament.  Valparaiso has the top seed, and the advantage of playing all of their games at home as long as they are in the tournament.  They also boast the 9th best field goal percentage in the NCAA.  Detroit finished a game behind Valparaiso in the standings to claim the other double bye in the tournament, but won't get the luxury of home games.  However, their high powered offense - 5th in points per game in the country - should be able to compete anywhere.  All nine teams will be competing for that automatic bid until they lose though, see below for how I see this tournament playing out.

My Prediction:





First Round Analysis
Wisconsin-Milwaukee is about to play Green Bay for the second time in about a week and the third time this season.  Each time, Green Bay ran away with the game.  This should be no different.

Cleveland State has had a disappointing season by their recently improved standards, but one thing they can say is that they have beat Illinois-Chicago twice this season by double digits.  Despite the Illinois-Chicago getting a home game here, I see a third win for Cleveland State happening in the first round.

Youngstown State has also swept Loyola this season, and with the benefit of a home court game in the first round, Youngstown State should move on.

Quarterfinals Analysis:
Cleveland State may have Illinois-Chicago's number this season, but not anyone else's.  Green Bay already has a 27 point beating of Cleveland State this season, and Green Bay should move on here.

Wright State has beat teams with their defense this year, and Youngstown State has won games with their offense this year.  They split on the season, but in the most recent meeting it was a major advantage to Wright State as Youngstown State could only muster 45 points.  With that in mind, Wright State should advance.

Semifinals Analysis:
Valparaiso played Green Bay only three days ago, and it wasn't close.  They clinched the conference 1-seed with a 19 point win on the road at Green Bay.  Valparaiso gets this game on their home court this time and shouldn't have any trouble reaching the final.

Detroit scores more points than almost anyone in the country, and has NBA talent on the roster in Ray McCallum (as well as the son of NBA talent in Juwan Howard Jr.).  Wright State may win games with their defense and has won the only meeting between these two teams this year, but I don't think their offense can keep up with them twice in the same season.  Detroit's talent and offense will move them to the final.

Championship Game Analysis:
Detroit and Valparaiso split this season, each winning on the other's home court, most recently with Detroit winning by ten on the court this game would be played at.  In a rematch of last year's title game, also played at Valparaiso, I see the same result with Detroit riding its offense to come out on top and clinch the automatic berth.

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With about 15 minutes before the first games of Championship Week tip off, you can lock in my predictions and feel free to post your own.  Tomorrow marks the beginning of five more tournaments, with the Atlantic Sun, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, and WCC conference tournaments beginning.