Sweet 16 Preview

Well, a good week removed from the beginning of the tournament, sixteen teams remain left in the tournament and I would estimate even fewer people that remain happy with their brackets.  It was inevitable this year it seemed, with so many top teams losing to unranked opponents throughout the year, that anything else could happen in this tournament.  If you're like me, you'll have to take solace wherever you can.  For instance, Gonzaga going out in the round of 32, totally called it.  Just ignore the fact that I had Pitt making the run that Wichita State is currently on.  Whatever most of us originally picked is irrelevant now, but there are 16 teams remaining, lets take a look at what is left.

Louisville and Oregon - I can't imagine too many people being surprised to see Louisville here, as about 1/3 of the world picked them as their national champion.  And frankly I'm not completely surprised to see Oregon here either.  I said from the beginning they were massively underseeded (my initial projections put them at a 7 seed) and I think they proved their point.  I thought Saint Louis would be a team that could give Louisville trouble, but that apparently doesn't matter anymore.  Louisville comes into this game as a 10 point favorite, and I think Oregon's run stops here.  The way Louisville just shredded Colorado State I don't think Oregon can offer anything vastly different.  I'd take Louisville by double digits here, but give Oregon a standing ovation for their efforts to this point.

Michigan State and Duke - This has the potential to be the best game of the round, or could end up as a landslide.  Mason Plumlee is the potential x-factor here as the main inside presence for Duke.  If he is up to the task of grabbing defensive rebounds and keeping the Spartans off the glass, Duke should win.  If Michigan State can get second chances, the advantage swings their direction.  At that point Duke will have to start hitting from outside to keep the game close.  If they go cold from outside Michigan State could run away with it.  But if they're hot from outside they have the potential to run away with it as well.  So to recap, Duke hot from three plus strong on defensive rebounds equals big Duke win; Duke cold from three plus MSU strong on offensive rebounds equals big MSU win; Duke hot from three plus MSU strong on offensive rebounds or both the other way should create a pretty close game.  I think Duke will pull this out, since I get a chance to actually refer back to my original bracket here.

Wichita State and La Salle - Anyone that tells me they predicted this matchup I will call a liar.  Although if you actually did, major props to you.  Since the second half against Pittsburgh, Wichita State has played like a different team than they did down the stretch in the Missouri Valley.  Their defense has kept them in games when their offense struggled, and allowed them to win games when their offense clicked.  La Salle is going to have to find a way to break down that defense to have a chance in this game.  Ultimately I think Wichita State's run continues on the back of that defense, and if their offense clicks again the rout may be on, but not to take anything away from La Salle as they have done nothing but impress to get to this game.

Arizona and Ohio State - Ohio State comes in as the only top 5 seed remaining in this region, and their reward is traveling out to Los Angeles to play Arizona.  This game reminds me a lot of the nailbiter Ohio State just won against Iowa State, except for the small detail that Arizona can defend significantly better than Iowa State.  The weak point for Arizona is defending the three, so that is where Ohio State will need to be successful to move on.  If they are not knocking down shots from outside I see Arizona winning this game, and in an environment that will feel much more like home for Arizona than Ohio State, that is what I predict will happen as Arizona moves on.

Kansas and Michigan - The way they have played so far, it feels like these seeds should be reversed.  Kansas is coming in as a slight favorite, but for three out of the four halves of basketball they have played in this tournament, they have not looked like a top seed.  Michigan on the other hand has shut down the offensive prowess of Nate Wolters and thrashed VCU.  Kansas' star Ben McLemore has been completely absent so far in this tournament, and Michigan is getting production from everywhere.  Most notably has been freshman Mitch McGary's dominance, but Glenn Robinson has also had a bit of a resurgence in addition to the normal reliability of Burke and Hardaway.  With Michigan clicking on all cylinders I'll take the Wolverines here.

Florida and Florida Gulf Coast - It has been fun.  Despite the fact they decimated my (final) bracket by upsetting Georgetown in the first round, watching Florida Gulf Coast's run so far has been thoroughly enjoyable.  You can't help but root for them, but the run should stop here.  Florida is too good on both sides of the ball to let Gulf Coast get any momentum.  Florida should win by double digits, but that doesn't mean I won't be rooting for the run to continue.

Indiana and Syracuse - Indiana got a little bit of a test from Temple in their last game, while Syracuse had a bit of trouble with California before moving on.  While we can applaud both team's ability not to wilt in the pressure of a close game, looking at this matchup only one thing stands out - Indiana looks to be built to play against the patented 2-3 zone Syracuse deploys on defense.  At any time, Indiana can put four guys on the court that can shoot over the zone from three, and as soon as the zone expands they have one of the best big men in the country to step into the holes in the zone and play on the inside with Zeller.  Indiana will have to hit their shots, but the shots will be there to hit.  I like Indiana a lot in this game.

Marquette and Miami - How is Marquette here?  They were dead to rights against Davidson in the first round, and all of a sudden a team that can't hit a three to save their life hits three in a row just to put themselves in a position for a buzzer beating layup.  They needed another mini-comeback to get by Butler, but here they are.  Miami had their own trouble with Illinois, but they should match up significantly better against this Marquette team.  All credit due to Marquette for getting it done and making it here, but they are playing a team that won't let them come back this time, and Miami should move on to the elite 8.

The Brackets - Initial and Final

And it begins, for real this time.  So before the first games tip off with Michigan State and Valparaiso at 12:15 ET, here is my initial bracket (from Sunday night) and my final one (completed last night).

Initial:

Final:

The obvious difference here is going to be the final four.  Between Sunday and Wednesday I changed my mind on three of them.  My rationale there:

• Early in the season I had pegged Duke as the best team in the country.  They were consistently playing the other top ranked teams, and winning.  Then Ryan Kelly went down and they started losing and I essentially wrote them off.  I gave them a second look when he came back, but they lost to Maryland in the ACC Tournament and I wrote them off again.  I never want to judge a team based on one game, and this Duke team should be more like the team I liked (as a chance to win, not in any terms of fandom) at the beginning of the year.  This is a match up that is more worthy of a final than an elite 8, but so be it.  I changed to Duke for 1 - I think with Ryan Kelly they they're a significant contender and have the same team that beat Louisville earlier in the season (yes I know Louisville didn't have Gorgui Dieng in that game, I don't care, Duke as a team shoots over 40% from three, they still won that game shooting 5-20) and 2 - everyone is picking Louisville.  My biggest tip to winning a large pool is find the best place to differentiate your bracket and go with it.  Here it is.
• I flipped between Georgetown and Florida over and over this week.  Initially I went with Florida because of the numbers.  They have a top offense and a top defense according to adjusted efficiency ratings.  That right there screams title contender.  But they also have injuries, coming out of a historically bad SEC, and haven't shown any ability to close out close games.  Georgetown's defense will keep this game close and that has been trouble for Florida all season (remember when they couldn't score a basket in the final 7:30 against Kentucky to lose?  Georgetown's defense could do that all game).  I'm not sure how much playing in the SEC skewed Florida's numbers, they're clearly a good team but they haven't played a truly top opponent in quite some time.  Georgetown is more battle tested in the SEC and defensively is one of the best in the country.  I've got Michigan waiting in the elite 8, but it was the winner of this game that I had on the track to the final four, and ultimately I feel better about Georgetown.
• I decided pretty early in the week I was giving Wisconsin too much credit for their run through the Big Ten tournament.  After all, this is a team that got stomped at home against Purdue just a few days before the Big Ten tournament.  I just didn't think Gonzaga was going to make a run.  So I went with a different approach.  Pittsburgh is a team I feel got underseeded, and very much at Gonzaga's expense.  I had them closer to a 5 or 6 in my projections, and in thinking about that, if Pitt was a 5 seed and met Gonzaga in the sweet 16, I would have taken Pitt without any second thought.  So here we are, just a round earlier.  Same principle applies, Pitt is the worst match up Gonzaga could have asked for and I think that will lead to an early exit.  And under the same principles, I moved Pitt past Wisconsin.  New Mexico is a team I've loved all season, and I don't think the Mountain West gets enough attention.  They historically have not fared well in the tournament, but this is the best team that has come out of the Mountain West in years.  They play solid defense and have a very efficient offense.  At no point do they have to travel too far from home, and they can take advantage of some favorable matchups en route to the final 4.

Other Changes - Midwest:
The other changes you'll see aren't quite as significant.  Under principle I will always take a 12 seed in at least the first round.  None really stood out to me, but Oregon as the underseeded Pac-12 Tournament Champs should give quite a fight to Oklahoma State (a team I also like a lot).  I switched this to Oregon as it was essentially a tossup in my mind to begin with anyway.  Memphis I don't care much for this year as they have not beaten a single team that made the tournament as an at large (Harvard is the only team in this field they have beat this year).  Now that I know who they're playing, and despite not wanting St Mary's in the field to begin with, I think they got a good matchup and St Mary's moves on.

West:
I don't know what it is about Ohio State this year (its not the rivalry, I put them in the final four multiple times the past few years), but they rarely run away from teams and their offense at many times this season has come down to DeShaun Thomas, and no one else.  I'm not in love with Notre Dame by any means, and they may be susceptible to a good defense, but if this game stays close and low scoring I like Notre Dame's chances a lot to pull off the upset.

South:
The only thing that changed here was my swap of Florida for Georgetown.  But while we're here, I might as well address Michigan.  Once again, its more than just fandom, Michigan is the one team I have seen every single game this season.  I know what they are capable of, and they are certainly capable of making a run through this tournament.  They have one of the best offenses in the country and when they start clicking can beat anyone else.  Kansas has played too many close games this season, some losses some they just scraped by, and I don't think scraping by is enough against a team as explosive as Michigan.  Granted, it completely depends which Michigan team shows up, but I moved them into the elite eight based on their potential, plus a Kansas team that has been less than impressive in my eyes at many times this season.  Once in the elite eight, I enacted my principle rule to separate my bracket from my fandom.  I will remain a Michigan fan until they are out of the tournament, but should they fall I can at least continue rooting for my bracket.  Its not the best method, but the defense that either Florida or Georgetown could bring to that game could create problems for Michigan's talented offense, and the way they have played against strong defenses this year, and the way their own defense has played at times this year, my head tells me to go with the defensive team.

East:
The changes here came with Miami-Marquette and UNLV-Syracuse.  For Miami, the games that stuck in my head were Wake Forest and Georgia Tech most recently.  But I don't think that is a good indicator of this actual Miami team.  This is a good team, that sometimes plays bad games.  More regularly than other top teams perhaps, but they have the ability to beat any top team.  And in all honesty, I don't consider Marquette to be one of those top teams.  They have had a good year, but have played so many close games.  At some point it could catch up to them, possibly against Davidson, or against Butler/Bucknell (I considered the Bucknell over Marquette upset, but ultimately stayed away), and by the time they get to this game, while both teams have faults, it came down to the probability that Miami would still be alive was greater than Marquette's in my eyes.  I changed this to Miami merely as the safest option as I didn't feel great about any of the teams in this part of the bracket.  Syracuse and UNLV was close in my head to begin with, but what ultimately caused the switch was the location of the game.  I'm not sure what to think about Syracuse at the end of the year.  Stumbled a lot down the stretch, picked it up in the Big East tournament before laying an egg in the second half of the championship.  So, I found this game with the possibility of going either way.  Playing on the west coast should benefit UNLV more than Syracuse.  So when it comes to a toss up, I decided to stick with the team closer to home.

Champion:
No changes here.  I love Indiana's path to the final.  A team that does so much well without many roadblocks in front of them...there wasn't anyone in their region that I liked enough to even consider an upset.  I've felt confident about Indiana's chances of just making the final since the bracket was released on Sunday, it is hard to change that feeling when considering who will win.  Indiana is my pick for this season's NCAA Tournament Champion.

---

Now, as with every other year, my initial bracket will inevitably be the one I should have stuck with.  But so be it, bring on the madness!

And as I said in a post earlier in this week, I appreciate all the support I've gotten with this blog.  Much more than I ever anticipated.  I will be spending the next few weeks transforming it into an all-round sports blog, and this coverage will continue with next year's basketball season.   So please, check back occasionally over the next few weeks, as more will be coming soon.

Blog Update

Play in games (ok ok, sorry, FIRST ROUND GAMES) start tonight as the tournament officially tips off.  I started this blog about three weeks ago to count down to exactly this point, and here we are.  It ended up with many more readers than I thought it would, so thanks to every single one of you that checked in regularly to see what I had to say.  It at least feels that the amount of time I spend preparing for this tournament is justified. 

Moving forward, the tournament should now speak for itself.  I will be transforming this page into an all-around sports blog over the next few weeks.  While I can't say daily updates will continue, I regularly have something to say about sports so you can count on seeing new things here with frequent updates still.  In the meantime, check back Thursday as I'll post my final predictions for this tournament (and my initial bracket, just to compare).

Thanks again to everyone who's been reading regularly the past few weeks, check back soon for more.

Bracket Reaction and First Thoughts

And we're off.  The least productive week in businesses all over the United States has begun.  Seriously, I wonder if anyone has ever done an official study on that, but the simple fact is that millions of people across the country are spending Monday to Wednesday ignoring their jobs just to do research on brackets and put together the optimal combination of teams that will be the most fun to tear up when it inevitably goes wrong.  Then of course, games tip off at noon on Thursday, certainly no time to get any work done then.  But by then, no one cares.  Managers will taunt their employees about that 11 over 6 first round upset that they correctly picked (but leave out that they swung and missed for the fourth straight year on that 14 seed) while phones go unanswered and profits dip.  But maybe that is what this week is about, so first lets take some time to reflect on what the committee gave us to work with, then we can down to business.

Reaction:
None of the teams that made the field surprised me at all.  I had 67 teams marked as locked or bubble IN as we were going through Championship Week.  That 68th team I had to pull from the list I marked as OUT.  I chose Tennessee, the committee went with St Marys.  Frankly I didn't think either one should have made the field based on the regular season, but someone had to be the 68th team and I'm not going to nitpick about which one got it.

The teams that were left out have nothing to complain about.  No one got the shaft, as I said I think St Mary's was simply lucky to be included, but the teams left out have no one to blame but themselves:

• Virginia - when you schedule so poorly out of conference it is in your best interest to at least beat the lowly teams you play.  When given a second chance in conference it is in your best interest to beat the lowly teams you play.  Seven losses to these lowly teams in and out of conference doomed you.
• Maryland - Beating Duke twice is impressive, but please don't pretend like that is the entire season.  When you play the 300th ranked non-conference schedule, then can't finish .500 in conference, that's on you.
• Kentucky - We understand how losing Nerlens Noel affected you.  You made it quite clear when you failed to win away from home every game you played without him.  You had chances to prove you could adjust to life without him, but four double digit losses to non-tournament teams is not proof, it is a reason to not be here.

I could keep going, but I won't.  The point is, every team not in the field has given plenty of reasons why they should not be included.  Hopefully they learned a lesson, whether it is get out and play someone in the non-conference, or take care of business against the lowly teams you play, the overall point remains the same - the reason you are not in the tournament now is your own doing.

I will say the same thing everyone else is saying about Oregon - ouch.  3-0 against the top seeded Pac-12 teams UCLA and Arizona, Pac-12 tournament champions, a road win over fifth seeded UNLV, and only a single bad loss on the entire season.  The committee explained they had to be dropped from their initially placed spot at 11 because of the play in game.  So, ouch, their season only warrants an 11?  Perhaps I predicted them a bit high at a 7, but they should feel a little insulted.

The rest of the seeding doesn't bother me too much, I think my prediction was within 2 seeds on every other team in the field, so there isn't much to complain about how it shook out.  I'm a bit surprised Kansas got the second overall 1-seed with a loss to TCU on their resume and not being that far removed from an embarrassment at Baylor, but ultimately it doesn't matter too much.  Kansas was going to the South region either way.

---hit the jump for info about filling out the bracket, first thoughts, and upset alerts---

Bracket Prediction FINAL

And here we go.  The games are just about done, and I don't think the result of Ohio State and Wisconsin will change very much in the final field, so nothing left but to see what the committee says.  So before the committee announces the official field here is one final prediction for the entire field, complete with seeding, locations, and matchups.

---

Check back again tomorrow for an analysis of the actual bracket

Selection Sunday! Final Look at the Numbers

And we are here!  Selection Sunday!  It's been a long time coming, but with the completion of some significant games yesterday we have a pretty good idea of what the bracket will look like.  Teams that clinched an automatic bid yesterday include Memphis in Conference USA, Albany in the America East, Southern in the SWAC, North Carolina A&T in the MEAC, Kansas in the Big 12, New Mexico in the Mountain West, Akron in the MAC, Louisville in the Big East, Northwestern State in the Southland, Montana in the Big Sky, Pacific in the Big West, Oregon in the Pac 12, and New Mexico State in the WAC.  On the other side, teams eliminated from contention altogether yesterday include Vermont, Vanderbilt, Prairie View A&M, Morgan State, Ohio, Stephen F Austin, Weber State, UC Irvine, and Texas-Arlington.

The remaining losers yesterday were filtered into either "definitely in" or "on the bubble."  Teams that lost that we are able to lock in include NC State, Butler, Indiana, Michigan State, Kansas State, UNLV, Syracuse, and UCLA.  I don't think there is anything that needs explaining with these teams, they are all easily in the field.  The losers from yesterday that move to the bubble include Southern Miss, Alabama, Maryland, and Massachusetts. 

Four games remain today, as the championship games in the ACC (Miami vs North Carolina), SEC (Florida vs Ole Miss), Atlantic 10 (Saint Louis vs VCU), and Big Ten (Wisconsin vs Ohio State).  Of these eight teams, only Ole Miss is not 100% locked into the field, but they have put themselves in the best position they can if they don't win today.  However, an at large will not be guaranteed if they don't win today so they'll want to make sure they take the automatic bid if they can.

So, with all of that said, where does that leave us today?  27 teams have been locked in to-date with automatic bids.  Another 27 have finished their pre-dance season with at large profiles that are good enough to feel confident locking them into the field to give us 54 locked in so far.  Seven teams playing today can be added as locks to give us a field of 61 teams.  That gives us seven spots remaining to be handed out among the "bubble" group.

---For a look at all of the teams, and a final prediction of who should be in the field, hit the jump.---

Filling the Field - Bubble Teams and At Large Teams

We are running out of teams.  After yesterday's games there are only 86 teams remaining alive for a bid, and 68 spots in the tournament.  We only have 18 more teams to lose before the field is set.  Before looking at the new at large contenders, we must pay our respects to the teams whose NCAA Tournament hopes officially ended yesterday: Boston College, Charlotte, LSU, Jackson State, UTEP, Bethune-Cookman, Southeast Louisiana, Nebraska, St Josephs, Kent State, Tulsa, North Dakota, Delaware State, Sam Houston State, Texas State, Western Michigan, Alabama A&M, Long Beach State, Florida State, Northern Colorado, Texas-San Antonio, Utah, and Cal Poly.

No teams received automatic bids yesterday, but a number of teams are moving into the field as their pre-tournament season ends, but their at large resume is too good to pass up.  These teams include: Michigan, Illinois, Duke, Georgetown, San Diego State, Arizona, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Missouri, and Colorado State.  Most of these teams should speak for themselves, but taking a quick moment to address the weakest of these resumes - Illinois hit a bad stretch in conference play and finished under .500 in conference.  But their overall body of work leaves no questions.  Six wins over the top 50, and four over the top 20 while playing the fifth most difficult schedule in the country will not only guarantee you a spot in the field, it should put you in pretty easily.  Missouri is the other team of question, but they should be easily in as well.  Despite their reputation for being unable to win away from home, they do have wins over VCU and Illinois on neutral sites this season, and haven't lost to anyone outside the top 100.  I would put both of these teams somewhere in an 8-9 game, which would find them solidly in the field.

Bubble Interest:
Today's games feature a number of championships as automatic bids will be handed out in the America East, Big 12, Big East, Big Sky, Big West, Conference USA, MAC, MEAC, Mountain West, Pac-12, Southland, SWAC, and WAC conferences.  If you are a fan of any team on the bubble, there are a few games you'll want to pay attention to:

Conference USA Championship - Memphis will be in the tournament regardless how this game ends up, while Southern Miss will likely need the automatic bid.  So if Memphis wins, one bid league.  If Southern Miss wins, two bid league.  Bubble teams will be rooting hard for Memphis.

SEC Semifinals - Alabama is making a late push for an at large, but likely needs to beat Florida to have an at large case, and that would keep them alive for the automatic bid as well.  On the other side, Ole Miss is on the verge of solidifying an at large, but a loss to Vanderbilt would still be damaging.  Best case scenario for bubble teams would be a Florida and Vanderbilt win today, then a Florida win over Vanderbilt tomorrow to prevent a bid thief.

ACC Semifinals - Bubble teams now need Maryland to get out of this tournament as soon as possible.  Every win moving forward gives them a little bit more of an at large case, and keeps them alive for the automatic bid.  If you're rooting for any other bubble team, you're rooting for North Carolina today.

Atlantic 10 Semifinals - Massachusetts is threatening to sneak in and grab a last second bid.  Bubble teams will want to see them out of this tournament today, for the same reasons as Maryland.  A win for VCU over Massachusetts today would make many bubble teams feel better.

---hit the jump to see the bubble profiles for yesterday's losers---

The Countdown - Yesterday's Eliminated, Bubble Teams, and At Larges

And here we go.  We dropped from 152 to 109 teams remaining after yesterday's games, meaning there are only 41 more teams to lose before we have our final field.  Taking a look at yesterday's losers, the following teams have been eliminated with no legitimate at large case: Penn State, Georgia Tech, Richmond, Georgia, UAB, Alabama St, Virginia Tech, Dayton, Texas Tech, Arizona State, Idaho, UC Santa Barbara, Mississippi State, Houston, Northern Arizona, Denver, UC Davis, Hampton, McNeese State, Buffalo, Purdue, Xavier, Texas, Tulane, Wake Forest, Arkansas, Southern Utah, Oral Roberts, Savannah State, George Washington, CS Fullerton, Alcorn State, Northwestern, Louisiana Tech, Eastern Michigan, East Carolina, Clemson, Montana State, Texas A&M, Utah State, Hawaii, and Washington.

Among these losers, there are a few interesting notes to point out:

1. For anyone who did not see Richmond's loss to Charlotte, watch this video. 

http://video.nbcsports.msnbc.com/nbc-sports/51182621#51182621

This is the most ridiculous ending of a game I've ever seen.  With five seconds to go, a team down by three ends up winning the game by five in regulation.  Before yesterday I didn't know that was possible.  I would have expected to see a game end with back to back half court shots before that.  Ultimately, this game means very little for the NCAA tournament unless Charlotte runs the table, but if you haven't seen the end of this game, its worth watching.

2. Arkansas's loss to Vanderbilt eliminates them from any at large consideration, but how does it affect Kentucky?  Kentucky was set to play the winner of this game with the possible scenario of a win gets them in and a loss kicks them out.  A loss eliminates them in my book, but when considering a win over Vanderbilt or a win over Arkansas, I would have to think Kentucky would rather be playing Arkansas.  Beating Vanderbilt does nothing for Kentucky besides avoid elimination for another day, while beating Arkansas would at least avenge a previous loss and add something of note to the profile.  Winning today over Vanderbilt and losing tomorrow may hurt Kentucky just as much as losing to Arkansas would have today, especially if the semifinal games is against fellow bubbler Ole Miss.

3. What happened to Louisiana Tech?  Their collapse is complete, and I know I'm not the only one that saw it coming, but this team just went from cruise control in the conference, ranked in the AP poll, to falling flat on their face.  They now dropped three straight games to eliminate their at large chance, then their automatic bid chance.

---hit the jump for the bubble and at large teams from yesterday's losers---

Conference Tournament Previews - A10, ACC, Big 10, Big Sky, Big West

We are in to the final stretch.  The final conference tournaments kick off today, and with yesterday's eliminations we are down to 152 teams remaining alive for a bid either through automatic bids from their conference tournament, or at large hopefuls.  Yesterday's games saw us welcome Bucknell to the elite list of teams guaranteed a spot in the field, we welcome Boise State to the stressful life of a bubble team with no more games to play, and a number of teams to the popular list of "eliminated."  Those eliminated yesterday include:  Providence, Seton Hall, Stanford, Air Force, SMU, Fresno State, Oregon State, Nicholls State, Norfolk State, Ball State, St Johns, Rice, West Virginia, Lafayette, South Carolina, Central Arkansas, North Carolina Central, Southern Cal, Grambling State, Miami (OH), Wyoming, Marshall, TCU, Rutgers, Auburn, and Washington State.  Check out the countdown to 68 to see who is still alive for a bid, who has clinched a bid, and who is done playing on the bubble.  Also check out the conference tournaments tab for an up to date look at all conference tournaments to date.  No championship games tonight, but plenty of games to watch as we are certain to see some bubble teams fall.  

Boise State At Large Profile
A win last night over San Diego State likely would have clinched it, but they fell short and now Boise State is left to play the waiting game, root hard for favorites...you know, typical bubble activity.  Lets take a look at how their chances stack up:

RPI - As of Thursday morning, it is at 44.  That is certainly a respectable number and tournament worthy, although there have been plenty of teams in the past miss with RPI's in the 40s.  It's no guarantee but its a good place to stand when you're on the bubble.

SOS - Not so good here.  They get a huge boost from playing in the Mountain West to get the total number down to 61, but the Non-conference Strength of Schedule is up at 215.  That number would ideally be lower, but they may be able to fall back on a strong conference just a bit.

History - To be honest, there are a ton of teams that fit a profile like this - decent RPI, good wins in conference, not much out of conference, etc, and overall, it goes both ways.  There are a number of teams that make the field and a number of teams that get left out.  So much depends on that year and the other bubble teams.

Good Wins - A strong win on the road at Creighton and three big wins at home in conference look good.  That gives them four wins in the top 50, a better number than some other bubble teams can say.

Bad Losses - A road loss at Utah and a road loss at Nevada are damaging at 150+ RPI losses.

The Verdict - Based on their overall profile, I think they're IN.  Four good wins compared to two bad losses, a winning record in a strong conference, and a good RPI seems like plenty in their favor.  As long as a lot of other teams still playing don't go on deep runs, or as long as there isn't an influx of bid thieves the final few days, I think they'll be in the field.

---

The final conference tournaments begin today in the Atlantic 10, ACC, Big 10, Big Sky, and Big West.  Hit the jump for the final previews and predictions in these conference tournaments.

Conference Tournament Previews - Big 12, C-USA, Pac-12, SEC, Southland, SWAC

There wasn't a ton of action yesterday, but we did bid farewell to eleven more teams and welcome three more into the field.  With the eliminations yesterday, we are down to 180 teams alive for bids, with 14 of them already in the field of 68 - 13 automatic bids and 1 at large locked in that has no more games to play.  Two teams with no games remaining at sitting on the bubble with their fingers crossed, and 166 still in action in their conference tournaments fighting for the remaining 54 spots.  For the complete list check out the countdown to 68 up top, and for an updated look at the conference tournaments, that tab has been updated through all of yesterday's games as well.

Three teams clinched automatic bids yesterday, as Long Island clinched the Northeast Conference with an impressive victory over Mount Saint Mary's.  Valparaiso took the the automatic bid in the Horizon with a victory over Wright State, and South Dakota State is in with a victory in the Summit Conference final with a win over North Dakota State.  These three losers have now been eliminated from contention as they do not have a legitimate at large chance.  Joining them in the ranks of the eliminated from yesterday are Coppin State, Florida A&M, South Florida, Nevada, Seattle, Howard, DePaul, and San Jose State.


Only one automatic bid to be handed out tonight:
Patriot - Bucknell vs Lafayette - 7:30pm ET - CBS Sports Network

Conference tournaments continue today as action begins in the Big 12, Conference USA, Pac-12, SEC, Southland, and SWAC Conferences.  Hit the jump to see the previews and my predictions for each conference.

Mountain West Tournament Preview

It has come to my attention that I left out some folks, as the Mountain West tournament also begins tonight with a single game.  For the rest of today's post, check the main page or the archives, or just click here: Tuesday's Post - Part 1

This ultimately could be a very important tournament for a couple teams, namely Boise State and Air Force.  Boise State should be feeling pretty good about their chances right now, and at least one win should solidify their spot in the field, while Air Force has been largely written off, a couple wins here would still give them a pretty impressive resume.  The tournament will be taking place in Las Vegas, Nevada, which should help out UNLV as it will be on their home court.  The top four seeds, New Mexico, Colorado State, UNLV, and San Diego State will be in the tournament field regardless how they perform here, but will always be looking to improve their prospective seeds.

My Predictions:

The impact of UNLV playing on their home court should be huge for the Rebels, as they have posted an impressive 17-2 record on this court this season, including wins over all of the other top five seeds.  New Mexico has been the best team overall in this conference this season, but they have four of their five losses in true road games, and should they face UNLV in the final it would essentially be a road game.  I expect UNLV to use this as an advantage and take care of business on their home court.  Among the bubble teams, Air Force gets the unfortunate draw of opening in that virtual road team role against UNLV, and I have a hard time seeing them winning that game.  Boise State just beat San Diego State on their home court, but on a neutral court I think San Diego State has the edge.

Saint Mary's At Large Profile / Conference Tournamant Previews - Big East, WAC

Before we begin today, we need to take a moment to recognize the class of Monday, March 11, as five new teams are joining the field officially.  Davidson, the top team in the Southern Conference all season, locks their place in the field with a convincing win over Charleston in their championship game.  James Madison knocks off top seeded Northeastern to take the Colonial automatic bid.  Iona finished their work in the MAAC Conference Tournament by taking the automatic bid from the 4-seed, topping 6-seed Manhattan in the final.  Western Kentucky upset the field in the Sun Belt for the second consecutive year, claiming the automatic bid from a low-seeded position.  And finally, Gonzaga officially claims the automatic bid from the WCC and stakes their claim on a top seed in the tournament with a win over Saint Mary's in the WCC final.  That brings our total to 10 automatic bids filled and one team that is done playing locked in as an at large for a total of 11 spots filled and 57 remaining.  Two teams with no games remaining are standing by on the bubble, hoping for an at large.  There are now 190 teams still alive, and 177 still in play trying to make the field.  The teams eliminated altogether yesterday include: Northeastern, Florida International, Manhattan, Charleston, Maryland-Eastern Shore, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Northern Illinois, IPFW, South Carolina State, and Western Illinois.

Tonight's action includes three more championship games:
Northeast - Long Island vs Mount St Marys - 7:00pm ET - ESPN2
Summit - South Dakota State vs North Dakota State - 9:00pm ET - ESPN2
Horizon - Valparaiso vs Wright State - 9:00pm ET - ESPN


Saint Mary's At Large Profile
There's got to be nothing like being a bubble team this far out from the tournament.  You can't do anything about it, so you just have to sit there and root for every favorite to win and every other bubble team in the country to look as bad as possible in their final games.  That is the position Saint Mary's will be in for the next five days, so the question now is, have they done enough?

RPI - At the beginning of the day Tuesday, Saint Mary's RPI currently sits at 33.  It's a good number, but it does not have the same sort of security as one in the 20's.  Three times a team with an RPI of exactly 30 has missed the cut as an at large.  But they're not far from that line, and the higher the better and they're in a decent position here.

SOS - The WCC is a better conference than the Sun Belt we looked at yesterday, Saint Mary's will get a little boost from having played Gonzaga three times, but besides those three games, they only have one real game of note, and that is a home game with Creighton.  Their non-conference Strength of Schedule is 129, which is a bit higher than preferable but could certainly be worse.  They'll just have to hope they don't get a direct comparison to Middle Tennessee in this category.

History - The most comparable team to Saint Mary's from last year's at large candidates is Drexel.  Saint Mary's has a better RPI, but the rest of their resume is amazingly similar.  They each ended up with six total losses, each playing in non-major conferences, with some bad losses early in the season.  Drexel not only missed the field, they apparently weren't all that close.  They ended up as a 3-seed in the NIT.

Good Wins - Its a good thing Saint Mary's got that late season home game with Creighton, because without it they have nothing here.  So one good win and after that the best they can offer is a sweep of BYU. 

Bad Losses - Two early season losses to Pacific and Georgia Tech do not look good now.  They also have a loss to a respectable Northern Iowa team that would look better in the win column.  They haven't lost a lot this season, but these games could hurt them.

The Verdict - If it was my call, and maybe fortunately for Saint Mary's it isn't, I'd have them OUT.  That isn't to say they'd stay out, if enough bubble teams fall early in conference tournaments they could sneak back in, but they would be right on the edge of my cut line right now.  In a direct comparison with Middle Tennessee from yesterday, I keep coming back to that non-conference Strength of Schedule number, and that is a big boost for Middle Tennessee, and if it was one or the other for a final spot, I'd take MTSU.  Needless to say, they'll want to see plenty of early losses for other bubble teams in the hopes of jumping past some now.

---

Not much in the way of other games happening yesterday, but with two conference tournaments beginning today in the Big East and the WAC, hit the jump for the previews.

Sunday's Recap / MAC & MEAC Conference Tournamets / The case for Middle Tennessee

In the little bit of action yesterday, there was quite a bit of drama.  Granted, almost all of it came from a single game, but we also have our first potential bid thieves, bubble teams around the country cringed a little bit with Middle Tennessee's early exit in the Sun Belt.  But first things first, taking a look at the official count as we are down to 201 teams alive either through their conference's automatic bid or at large hopes.  Teams eliminated from contention yesterday include: Sacramento State, Charleston Southern, Niagara, Delaware, Fairfield, UMBC, Appalachian State, Oakland, Stony Brook, Elon, Western Kentucky, and UMKC.  See the full list in the countdown to 68 up top and the up to date brackets in the Conference Tournaments tab up top.

New in the Field
Two conference tournament championship games were played yesterday.  Liberty shocked the Big South to take the automatic bid there.  With a 6-10 conference record in the regular season and 11 total wins going into the tournament - good for 10th in the 12 team conference - Liberty won four straight games against higher ranked opposition to clinch the automatic bid.  They worked their record all the way up to 15-20 during their conference tournament run and will certainly be one of the 16 seeds in the NCAA Tournament.

Creighton, in a less surprising fashion, took the automatic bid from the Missouri Valley Conference by topping Wichita State.  Depending how the rest of the conference tournaments shake up, I think their most likely landing spot will be around a 7-seed in the NCAA Tournament.  I went ahead and locked Wichita State into the tournament as well, as they are completely done with their games and there is no scenario I can see with them being left out of the field.  With these three additions today, that brings the spots remaining in the tournament field down to 62.  Of course, keep in mind that no team is locked into the field until after they have played their final game.

Today's Championships
Five tournaments wrap up today with championship games:
Colonial - Northeastern vs James Madison - 7:00pm ET - NBC Sports Network
Southern - Davidson vs Charleston - 7:00pm ET - ESPN2
Sun Belt - Florida International vs Western Kentucky - 7:00pm ET - ESPN
WCC - Gonzaga vs Saint Mary's - 9:00pm ET - ESPN
MAAC - Iona vs Manhattan - 9:00pm ET - ESPN2

---hit the jump for a look at the rest of yesterday's action and a preview of the tournaments beginning today---

Recapping Saturday's Action from 3-9-13

What a day yesterday.  Lot of games, lot of impact, so I'm not going to waste a lot of time here.  Lets jump straight into the tournament field.  We now have three teams officially locked into the field with their conference's automatic berth.  Florida Gulf Coast locked up the first spot as they took down Mercer in the Atlantic Sun championship game on Mercer's home court.   In the Ohio Valley, Belmont left nothing to chance with an at large bid as they claimed the automatic berth as the tournament champion.  A heartbreaking finish for their opponents Murray State, as with a tie game in overtime star guard Isaiah Canaan dribbled the ball off his foot to set up Belmont for the game winning shot.  I hate to see Canaan finish his senior season that way, but bubble teams all over will be relieved to see that Belmont is not sitting in the at large pool.  And in a surprise yesterday, Harvard clinched the automatic berth from the Ivy League as Princeton dropped a decisive game at Brown.  With the first spots in the tournament field officially set, we now have 65 spots remaining.

Now, to fill those spots, after yesterday's eliminations we drop down to 214.  A look at the teams eliminated reveals a long list:  New Hampshire, VMI, Georgia Southern, Mercer, Wagner, Hartford, Lehigh, Gardner-Webb, Siena, Furman, Indiana State, Robert Morris, Drexel, Army, Illinois State, Canisius, Detroit, Binghamton, UNC Greensboro, Hofstra, Arkansas-Little Rock, IUPUI, Murray State, Princeton, Louisiana Lafayette, Rider, Maine, Western Carolina, William & Mary, Green Bay, Loyola Marymount, Eastern Washington, South Alabama, South Dakota, Troy, Loyola (MD), St Bonaventure, and San Diego.  All were eliminated during their conference tournaments except for Eastern Washington and St Bonaventure.  Eastern Washington was knocked out of contention for the Big Sky tournament with a loss to Weber State, and St Bonaventure was the odd man out in the Atlantic 10 final eliminated spot when they lost at home to Fordham and George Washington got by Dayton in overtime.

Today's conference tournament action sees no new tournaments starting today, but the championship game of the Big South tips off at 12:00pm ET with Liberty facing Charleston Southern, and at 2:05pm ET Creighton takes on Wichita State in the Missouri Valley championship game.  Two winners will receive automatic bids, but the loser of Creighton and Wichita State should be safely in the field as an at large as well.

Outside of the tournaments, the regular season began wrapping up for some of the "major" conferences.  For a look at how Saturday's games impacted these teams and conferences, just hit the jump.

Regular Season Final Weekend Look - Plus: America East, Colonial, Summit Tournament Previews

Welcome to the final weekend of the regular season!  Over the next two days, all regular season action will be completed, all tournament fields will be set, and we will have a few automatic bids handed out and our first teams officially into the field of 68.  A quick look at yesterday's action dropped the following teams from their tournaments: Wofford, Drake, Samford, Evansville, USC Upstate, Chattanooga, Youngstown State, Louisiana Monroe, Tennessee State, Missouri State, North Texas, Marist, Citadel, Northern Iowa, Stetson, Illinois-Chicago, Eastern Kentucky, Santa Clara, St Peters, Florida Atlantic, and BYU.  With these recent losses the total number of teams alive to make the NCAA Tournament either through their conference's automatic bid or an at large bid is now 251.  Check the complete list in the Countdown to 68 tab up top, or check the conference tournament tab for up to date brackets in each conference.

There wasn't much action in the way of other games yesterday, but I think it is very important we take a moment to give a shout out to Loyola Marymount University.  Here is a team that went 1-15 in conference play this season.  They have now won three consecutive games in the WCC tournament to make it to the semifinals.  Gonzaga comes next so they'll have quite a challenge to make it four, but hey, I'm impressed so far.  The other action of note came from the Ivy League, as Princeton lost to allow Harvard back into the race with a win of their own.  We are now back to a virtual tie in the Ivy League, and if both teams win out we'll be looking at a one game playoff.

As the regular season wraps up today and tomorrow, lets take a look at what these games will determine in each conference.  Click the jump for a final weekend preview for each conference, as well as conference tournament previews for the America East, Colonial, and Summit Leagues.

Thursday Recap and Conference Tournament Previews - Southern and Sun Belt

More eliminations today as the field of "alive" teams continue to shrink as they drop in their conference tournaments.  We have yet to lose any at large candidates, but today we bid farewell to Winthrop, Longwood, East Tennessee State, Jacksonville, Campbell, High Point, Bradley, Morehead State, Southern Illinois, San Francisco, Southeast Missouri State, and Pepperdine.  With this recent crop of eliminations, the total number of teams still alive to make the NCAA tournament either through their conference automatic bids or at large bids is at 272 teams for 68 spots.  Check the conference tournaments tab up top for an up to date look at how the tournaments stand today, and check the Countdown to 68 tab to see a list of all teams still alive by conference.

Among the candidates for at large spots, all of the teams that needed to win....didn't.  Virginia has now followed up their big win over Duke with two poor losses, yesterday's coming at the hands of Florida State.  They can't afford a losing streak at this point, and their season finale with Maryland now becomes a must win game.  Kentucky picked up their worst loss of the season at a stage they couldn't afford to lose.  The at large situation for Kentucky is now simple in my eyes, beat Florida.  If they don't do that, don't expect them to receive an at large.  Massachusetts was really only on the watch list because they had the opportunity for big wins.  Well, they didn't get it as they lost to Butler at home.  Its not a bad loss, but they missed the big win and their miniscule hopes are now finished in my eyes.  Butler snapped a mini-losing streak to do what they can to protect their seed.  Louisiana Tech essentially ruined any chance they would have had at an at large if they failed to win the WAC as they dropped their first game in conference, losing to New Mexico State.  They'll now need to plan on winning the conference tournament to make the field.  In the Big Ten, Michigan State kept their hopes alive for a share of the regular season title with a win over Wisconsin.  Both teams will be in the tournament, and Michigan State may get a small seed bump while Wisconsin may fall slightly.  In the Pac-12, the race for the regular season title remains wide open as Oregon fell to Colorado.  Both teams are in the tournament and playing for seed at this point, but Oregon could have clinched the outright Pac-12 title if they had won out.  They will now need to win on Saturday against Utah to get at least a share, but a win in that game would clinch the top seed in the Pac-12 tournament.

This will likely be the last day I'll have the time to hit the game by game analysis in the tournaments, as moving forward the games get bigger, more important, and we're going to start having a clearer picture of what the tournament field will look like.  I will still throw my predictions and previews out there, but the bulk of my analysis is going to be on the results.  But keep on reading for the Southern Conference and Sun Belt tournament previews.  And if you're looking for the MAAC preview, which also starts today, check yesterday's post.

---hit the jump for today's conference tournament previews---

Conference Tournaments Preview - MVC, MAAC

A number of casualties as five conference tournaments were in action yesterday, with the following teams eliminated from contention with no hope of an at large: North Florida, Lipscomb, Holy Cross, American, Navy, Colgate, Quinnipiac, St Francis (NY), Central Connecticut State, Bryant, Tennessee-Martin, Eastern Illinois, and Portland.  With these new losses, it drops the number of teams alive for the NCAA Tournament down to 284.

Taking a look at the games from yesterday that involved any at large contenders, in the Big East, Villanova picked up a massive win over Georgetown.  The win may officially clinch them a spot in the tournament should they need an at large bid.  For Georgetown, the loss takes likely takes them out of the running for a 1-seed, they may need to win the Big East tournament to get back in the discussion.  In other games involving potential 1-seed contenders, Michigan and Florida picked up wins, but Miami dropped another game, this time at home to lowly Georgia Tech.  The loss likely eliminates them from contention on the top line as well.  Among bubble teams, Xavier just won't go away no matter how many times I try to eliminate them, as they picked up a huge win over Saint Louis.  Despite the win, their hopes remain slim.  Saint Louis is in the field, but will take a stumble in their seeding.  Temple and La Salle picked up conference wins in the A10 over Fordham and George Washington to avoid bad losses.  Iowa State may have booked their spot in the field as they got the big win they needed over Oklahoma State.  The loss may have taken Oklahoma State officially out of the running for the Big 12 regular season title, but should only cause a small drop in their projected seed.  Maryland lost at home to North Carolina to make their at large hopes almost nonexistent, as they needed to pick up big wins to finish the season.  North Carolina solidifies their position in the field with the win.  Tennessee avoided another bad loss as they beat Auburn, but will still need a win over Missouri in their season finale to remain in contention.  Minnesota should have locked their spot up by beating Indiana at home, but following it up with a loss at Nebraska is a good way to ruin a seed anyway.  It should be too late to play their way out, but not too late to knock their seed down.  UCLA puts up a bad loss to Washington State to do some damage to their seed as well, California dropped a home game to Stanford.  Last thing I said about them was that it was too late to play their way out, but they still have plenty of time to sweat if they get knocked out of the Pac-12 tournament early.  Teams that actually protected their seed in yesterday's games were Syracuse with a win over DePaul, VCU over Richmond, NC State over Wake Forest, Oklahoma over West Virginia, Colorado State over Wyoming, New Mexico over Nevada, and San Diego State over Air Force.


---see today's conference tournament previews after the jump---

Conference Tournament Preview - ASUN, NEC, OVC, Patriot, WCC

Before we begin today, lets take a moment of silence for our fallen comrades.  The following schools have been officially eliminated from contention for the NCAA tournament due to losses in their respective conference tournaments and no hope for an at large bid: Radford, UNC Asheville, Presbyterian, Loyola (IL), Cleveland State, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, and Coastal Carolina.  That brings our number of teams still alive for a bid in the tournament down to 297.  Take a look at the conference tournament tab up top to see updated brackets reflecting the results of yesterday's games (Big South and Horizon were the only ones with games) and the Countdown to 68 tab to see the full list of all teams still alive by conference.  Before diving into the conference tournaments today, lets take a quick look at the action among at large candidates yesterday.

In the ACC, Duke cruises over Virginia Tech at home as they continue their hunt for a 1-seed.  In the Big East, Marquette had a battle but beat Rutgers on the road to hold their position in the field.  They won't move much with that win, but it prevents them from dropping.  Notre Dame crushed St Johns in a game that got violent at the end.  The committee won't leave St Johns out because they're throwing punches in games, but they will leave them out for dropping five of their last six.  I think their at large hopes are done.  In the SEC, Missouri beat Arkansas by 30 in a game Arkansas needed to prove they could win against quality teams away from home.  Not a good example, and they may be done.  The best they can do now is run deep into the SEC tournament, and get a couple big wins along the way.  In a virtual elimination game, Ole Miss stayed alive as they beat Alabama, while Alabama's hopes have run out.  They have no real good wins, and a number of bad losses.  They'll need to win the SEC tournament at this point.  The Big Ten had the best action of the night as Ohio State downed Indiana on Indiana's home court.  The scenario is now open for a four way tie at the top of the Big Ten, and Indiana is now seeing their stranglehold on a top seed slipping away.  Ohio State will get a nice boost in seeding, while Indiana is going to need to bounce back either at Michigan or in the tournament to make sure they maintain a top seed.  Iowa kept their slim at large hopes alive by beating Illinois at home.  They'll probably need at least one more quality win in the Big Ten tournament to make their case, but its a step in the right direction.  Illinois shouldn't be in danger of missing the field, but they'll probably get a bit of a drop in their projected seed because of the loss.  In Conference USA, Memphis avoided a bad loss on the road as they slipped by UTEP with a two point win, while Southern Miss did what any at large team can't do: picked up a bad loss to Marshall without much else on their profile.  With no chances for good wins the rest of the way, they are out of at large contention and will need to win the Conference USA tournament.  In the Mountain West, Boise State missed out on a big win for their profile as they lost on the road at UNLV.  They will need to win against San Diego State in the season finale to add to their at large profile, or else need a big tournament run.  UNLV won't move much with this home win, but holds their position solidly in the field.  And finally, in the Big 12, the only game of note saw Kansas State beating TCU at home to simply avoid a bad loss and hold their current position.

---conference tournament previews and predictions for those starting today after the jump---

Conference Tournaments Preview - Big South and Horizon

Before we get into the meat of what today is really about, let me say one thing.  If I had a dollar for every time I told a team they can't afford to lose a game and they did....well, I've only been saying it for about a week, but I think I'm starting to afford a pretty nice dinner for myself at least.  Baylor - you could not afford to lose to Texas last night.  Snap judgement: beat Kansas or win the Big 12 tournament.  Any other scenario will not put you in the NCAA tournament this year.  In the other two games of note last night, the favorites did what was required of them as Kansas took care of Texas Tech in convincing fashion and Louisville put away Cincinnati.  Both of these teams are hunting for 1-seeds, and neither one gave anyone any reason to think they don't deserve it based solely on yesterday's performances.  Cincinnati, now 2-6 in their last eight games, is not doing themselves any favors.  While a road loss at Louisville shouldn't knock them down much, and as long as they can take care of South Florida at home shouldn't be worried about missing the tournament; they might want to win a couple games just to remember what it feels like before the NCAA tournament if nothing else.

Now, for the true meaning of the day: Today marks the official beginning of Championship Week!  With the first rounds of the first conference tournaments beginning today, we can officially start the countdown to the field of 68.  Entering today, we had 304 teams alive for 68 spots in the field, with 31 spots going to the conference tournament winners and 37 spots going to at large teams remaining from teams that did not win their tournament.  Every day until Selection Sunday on March 17, more teams will be eliminated.  As they are eliminated from their conference tournaments, only then will we evaluate their at large chances and they will either be placed into the field as an At Large Lock, on the bubble, or eliminated from contention entirely.  See the tabs above to follow the conference tournament brackets, or follow the status of all teams in the countdown to 68.  Today, the tournament begins for the Big South and the Horizon League.  Seven teams will be eliminated between these two conferences by day's end.  So, without further ado, lets take a look at these two conferences.

---follow the jump for the tournament previews and predictions---

Notes from Sunday's Games

First of all, before we take a look at Sunday's action, note the new tab up top.  All of the conference tournament brackets have been included in the tab labeled "Conference Tournaments."  Or, just click here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AkZE6sc7QKRPdGVlT3hTU1BhYUlzNHI1MkRucGxqNEE&output=html

I will try to keep this up to date on a daily basis, especially once the elimination starts.  Look for a preview and my predictions for the first tournaments to kick off starting tomorrow.  Now, a look at the games that took place yesterday involving contenders for tournament positions.


In the ACC, Virginia did exactly what you're not supposed to do after a big win for a bubble team: lose to Boston College.  Maryland did it earlier and now Virginia is following in their footsteps.  I think Virginia has a better resume to take that loss, but it certainly is a step back and leaves much less room for error moving forward.  North Carolina and NC State were also in action, and recorded victories over the bottom half of the league.  Not noteworthy games, but always important to avoid losing them.

In the Big Ten, talk about a bounce back win for Michigan.  A few days after a stunning loss to previously winless-in-conference Penn State, Michigan turns around and scores a huge win over rival Michigan State at home.  The win will keep Michigan in contention for a 1-seed despite the bad loss (right about the same level as Kansas and Georgetown, who have losses to TCU and South Florida respectively), but Michigan will need to keep winning to stay in contention.  Michigan State has now lost three in a row, although against three quality opponents.  But the losing streak will hurt their seed a little bit as other teams climb around them, and they will need to start winning again to try to climb back up.  Wisconsin put up a surprising loss to Purdue at home.  They are already solidly in the tournament field, but that sort of loss will cause them to drop a bit in seed.

And...that was kind of it for Sunday.  Looking ahead to Monday night, only three games of note:

Texas Tech at Kansas - There shouldn't be much to see here, but we've seen the crazy upset more than once this year.  Kansas will need to win to remain in contention for a 1-seed, as they can not afford more than one loss to the bottom of the conference.

Baylor at Texas - Baylor needs to win here, as they are in danger of falling out of at large contention.  A loss to Texas would be bad for their resume and something Baylor can not afford at this point in the season.

Cincinnati at Louisville - At least Cincinnati got a win over Connecticut over the weekend to snap their skid, because it doesn't get easier.  A loss wouldn't be too damaging, but a win would be huge for their profile and projected seed.  Louisville on the other hand, can't afford to lose if they want to continue to have a shot at a 1-seed.


And finally, before we go, with elimination tournaments beginning tomorrow in the Big South and Horizon conferences, a look at the official list shows 304 teams officially still alive for a spot in the NCAA tournament.  As always, no team is eliminated from contention UNTIL they are eliminated from their conference tournament.  And only at that time will I determine their final at large status.  Happy Championship Week everyone!

Notes from Saturday's Games

Ok, so, serious question.  Can we find 68 teams for the tournament this year?  I realize there are 31 automatic bids that we have to give out, but that leaves 37 other teams that need to be put into the field.  Bubble teams keep losing, and there was no shortage of bubble losses on Saturday.  See below for a look at what the tournament candidates did in conference on Saturday.


In the Atlantic 10, Saint Louis is going to be the team to beat in this conference.  After Saturday's win at George Washington, they have won eleven straight.  A win in either of their final two games will clinch the top seed in the A10 Tournament.  VCU proved they could beat anyone.  We know Butler is good, they have already beat Indiana, Gonzaga, and Marquette this year, and VCU crushed them.  There is no question about VCU's resume and they will get a boost to their seed with a performance like that.  Butler has now dropped two straight to the top two teams in the conference and will need to turn it around to prevent their seed from dropping too far.  Xavier's at large resume took another hit as they lost at home to Massachusetts.  They are now hanging by a thread, and any more losses may cut that thread.  They need wins in their last two against Saint Louis and Butler.  Massachusetts was already in that scenario, and got the win in this game.  They'll have to keep it up with wins the rest of the way to keep their at large hopes alive.  Butler is next for them.  Temple and La Salle took care of business at home against the lower tier of the conference to avoid bad losses.  And if it wasn't clear already, Charlotte is done.  Two bad losses after I said they needed to win out, they now need the automatic bid from the conference.  Rhode Island has officially been eliminated from the A10 tournament as they can not finish in the top 12.  One more team will miss the tournament, and with two games to play, Chartotte has fallen into a battle to just make the tournament, tied with Dayton and George Washington in the fight to avoid that final elimination spot.

---more after the jump---

Conferences to Date - Part 5 - SEC, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Summit, Sun Belt, WCC, WAC

Before we begin today's look at the final conferences to date, we have an important update from the Ivy League.  With no conference tournament in the Ivy League, there are two important developments from Friday's games.  First, with losses Cornell and Yale have officially been eliminated from contention for the automatic bid.  Second, the only two remaining contenders, Princeton and Harvard, faced off with Princeton winning.  Harvard retains a half game lead only because of an extra game played, but if both teams win out, they will have a one game playoff for the automatic bid.

Now, moving on to today's look at conferences, we begin with the SEC.  There is no other conference in the country that has more teams that could go either in or out in the final weeks of the season.  Of the fourteen teams in the conference, seven would have reason to believe they still have a possibility for an at large, but only two with any reason to feel particularly safe at this point.  All fourteen will participate in the conference tournament.  The seven teams that will need to take the automatic bid in order to make the NCAA tournament are Texas A&M, LSU, Vanderbilt, Georgia, South Carolina, Auburn, and Mississippi State.  The tournament will take place March 13-17, with the championship on March 17 televised on ABC.

At Large Contenders:
Florida certainly appears to be this conference's best team.  They have been flirting with a 1-seed all season, but a couple recent road losses have damaged their opportunity for that.  It is not too late for the Gators to get back into the top seed discussion, but they will likely need to win out and win the conference tournament to do so.  Another loss in the SEC would likely drop them too far to climb back by the end of the season.

Kentucky is experiencing quite a different season than last year's team.  They are currently tied second in the conference, but they only managed to pick up their first truly good win in overtime against Missouri at the end of February.  They don't have any truly damaging losses, with Texas A&M being the worst, but they'll need to use the rest of the season to convince people they should be in.  With road games at Arkansas and Georgia, there are opportunities for damaging losses, but also a home game against Florida for an opportunity for a big win.  Multiple losses down the stretch would require a big showing in the conference tournament to silence the critics, and taking the automatic bid might be the only way to make sure of it.  But a winning streak down the stretch should clinch a spot for them, at which point the conference tournament would largely be for their seed.

Alabama has won enough games in conference to remain in the discussion, but their overall profile is not very impressive.  Their best win is over Kentucky, but they have lost to Dayton, Mercer, Tulane, and Auburn.  Not good.  After their loss to Florida today, they will need to win out over Ole Miss and Georgia and make a deep run in the tournament to be a serious at large contender, and winning the conference tournament would be the only way to feel safe on Selection Sunday.

Ole Miss started the season very strong, but lately they've been struggling.  Unfortunately for them, their strong start didn't include much in the way of impressive wins.  A lone win over Missouri is the best they can offer, but they also have a very bad loss to South Carolina on the profile.  Winning out in the SEC would probably be a requirement in order to avoid bad losses to Mississippi State and LSU, and a home game to Alabama would give them an edge over a fellow bubble team.  If they can't do that, they may be able to sneak in depending on their SEC tournament performance, but winning the tournament would be the only way to feel truly safe.

Missouri is the only other team besides Florida in the SEC who can actually feel good about their at large chances right now.  Non-conference wins over Illinois and VCU remain huge for Missouri, and their home win over Florida should clinch their spot.  As long as they don't end the season with three straight losses and an early SEC tournament exit they'll be in, but they'll want to use the rest of the season to try to improve their profile and seed for the NCAA tournament.

Tennessee came out of nowhere to join the discussion for an at large berth from the SEC.  They have won six straight, but a bad start to the season is requiring this surge as they were hovering around .500 overall prior to this run.  Wins over Florida and Wichita State, as well as a 30 point beating of Kentucky solidifies their resume, but a home loss to Georgia early in the season hurts.  They'll need to avoid bad losses on the road to Georgia and Auburn down the stretch, and a home game against Missouri to close the regular season will be important.  If they start losing again, it may require the automatic bid in the SEC Tournament to make the big dance.

Arkansas will need to finish the season very strong in order to get true consideration, but they do have wins over Florida, Missouri, and Oklahoma to make a case.  They will have to overcome losses to South Carolina and Vanderbilt, but wins down the stretch over Kentucky and Missouri would be big, and they'll have to avoid losing to Texas A&M, but they certainly have an opportunity to make a case.  If they can't start a winning streak though, they will likely require the automatic bid in order to get in.

--more after the jump--

Conferences to Date - Part 4 - MEAC, MVC, MWC, NEC, OVC, Pac-12, Patriot

Continuing our look through all of the conferences.  For the first three parts, check the archives on the right in February, and for a full list of all teams by conference check the countdown to 68 above.


Beginning with another one-bid league, the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC) is not typically a big contender on the national stage, but it was only last year that the conference had one of the biggest upsets in the history of the tournament, with Norfolk State knocking off Missouri in the first round as a 15-seed.  They will only be getting one bid this year, from the conference tournament champion, but whoever it is would love to repeat a feat like that.  All 13 teams in the conference will make the conference tournament with a chance to take that automatic bid.  The teams, in order of current standings are: Norfolk State, North Carolina Central, Savannah State, Hampton, Delaware State, Morgan State, Bethune Cookman, North Carolina A&T, Florida A&M, Howard, Coppin State, Maryland-Eastern Shore, and South Carolina State.  The tournament will take place from March 11-16, with the automatic bid handed out in the final on March 16.  The televised broadcast is still TBD.

--more after the jump--

Recent Games Recap and Impact - March 1

Before continuing with the look at all conferences, there has been quite a lot that has happened over the past couple days that will impact the field.  Lets take a quick look at the games that happened and their impact on the teams involved.

Wednesday, February 27 - Quite a lot of bubble impact and upsets today...

Michigan 78 at 84 Penn State - Ok, lets get this out of the way.  I am doing this as unbiased as possible, but as a Michigan alum, this physically hurts.  Penn State's upset over Michigan certainly won't help the Nittany Lions make the field, they'll need to repeat the feat multiple times in the conference tournament for that to happen, but it has a big impact on Michigan.  Prior to this game, they were well in the hunt for a 1-seed and for at least a share of the regular season Big Ten title.  Needless to say, this is a big setback there.  They still have two big opportunities to turn it around with home games against Michigan State and Indiana, and if they can win out they should be right back in the discussion.  Dropping either one of those games (or the road game at Purdue in between) would likely mean they would have to win the Big Ten Tournament just to be considered again.

Georgetown 79 at 78 Connecticut - It took two overtimes, but Georgetown holding on for a one point road win at Connecticut is huge for the Hoyas with so many other teams losing around them.  They are the likely favorites for the top seed in the Big East tournament, and increased their chances for a top seed in the NCAA Tournament.

 Virginia Tech 58 at 76 Miami (FL) - Not really much to say about this game.  Miami took care of business against the bottom of the conference, but the significance here is that they bounced back from their bad loss at Wake Forest and remain a candidate for a 1-seed.  It is also one step closer to clinching the top seed for the ACC tournament.

Akron 88 at 81 Ohio - A very important game in the MAC that may have flown under the radar.  Akron is very much in the hunt for an at large bid should they fail to win the MAC tournament, but it is far from a sure thing.  They need the best wins they can get, and on the road at Ohio is about as good as the Zips can do in the MAC.  They'll still want to secure the automatic bid to be sure, but in case they miss it they'll still have a chance for an at large.

Drake 67 at 56 Indiana State - While we haven't taken a look at the Missouri Valley State, Indiana State was in the discussion for an at large spot.  But, they keep doing things like this.  While they have wins over the likes of Miami, Creighton, and Wichita State, they have now been swept on the season by Drake, to add to a number of other bad losses.  This is very bad for Indiana State's at large chances and they'll need some help now.

--see more after the jump--