Well, a good week removed from the beginning of the tournament, sixteen teams remain left in the tournament and I would estimate even fewer people that remain happy with their brackets. It was inevitable this year it seemed, with so many top teams losing to unranked opponents throughout the year, that anything else could happen in this tournament. If you're like me, you'll have to take solace wherever you can. For instance, Gonzaga going out in the round of 32, totally called it. Just ignore the fact that I had Pitt making the run that Wichita State is currently on. Whatever most of us originally picked is irrelevant now, but there are 16 teams remaining, lets take a look at what is left.
Louisville and Oregon - I can't imagine too many people being surprised to see Louisville here, as about 1/3 of the world picked them as their national champion. And frankly I'm not completely surprised to see Oregon here either. I said from the beginning they were massively underseeded (my initial projections put them at a 7 seed) and I think they proved their point. I thought Saint Louis would be a team that could give Louisville trouble, but that apparently doesn't matter anymore. Louisville comes into this game as a 10 point favorite, and I think Oregon's run stops here. The way Louisville just shredded Colorado State I don't think Oregon can offer anything vastly different. I'd take Louisville by double digits here, but give Oregon a standing ovation for their efforts to this point.
Michigan State and Duke - This has the potential to be the best game of the round, or could end up as a landslide. Mason Plumlee is the potential x-factor here as the main inside presence for Duke. If he is up to the task of grabbing defensive rebounds and keeping the Spartans off the glass, Duke should win. If Michigan State can get second chances, the advantage swings their direction. At that point Duke will have to start hitting from outside to keep the game close. If they go cold from outside Michigan State could run away with it. But if they're hot from outside they have the potential to run away with it as well. So to recap, Duke hot from three plus strong on defensive rebounds equals big Duke win; Duke cold from three plus MSU strong on offensive rebounds equals big MSU win; Duke hot from three plus MSU strong on offensive rebounds or both the other way should create a pretty close game. I think Duke will pull this out, since I get a chance to actually refer back to my original bracket here.
Wichita State and La Salle - Anyone that tells me they predicted this matchup I will call a liar. Although if you actually did, major props to you. Since the second half against Pittsburgh, Wichita State has played like a different team than they did down the stretch in the Missouri Valley. Their defense has kept them in games when their offense struggled, and allowed them to win games when their offense clicked. La Salle is going to have to find a way to break down that defense to have a chance in this game. Ultimately I think Wichita State's run continues on the back of that defense, and if their offense clicks again the rout may be on, but not to take anything away from La Salle as they have done nothing but impress to get to this game.
Arizona and Ohio State - Ohio State comes in as the only top 5 seed remaining in this region, and their reward is traveling out to Los Angeles to play Arizona. This game reminds me a lot of the nailbiter Ohio State just won against Iowa State, except for the small detail that Arizona can defend significantly better than Iowa State. The weak point for Arizona is defending the three, so that is where Ohio State will need to be successful to move on. If they are not knocking down shots from outside I see Arizona winning this game, and in an environment that will feel much more like home for Arizona than Ohio State, that is what I predict will happen as Arizona moves on.
Kansas and Michigan - The way they have played so far, it feels like these seeds should be reversed. Kansas is coming in as a slight favorite, but for three out of the four halves of basketball they have played in this tournament, they have not looked like a top seed. Michigan on the other hand has shut down the offensive prowess of Nate Wolters and thrashed VCU. Kansas' star Ben McLemore has been completely absent so far in this tournament, and Michigan is getting production from everywhere. Most notably has been freshman Mitch McGary's dominance, but Glenn Robinson has also had a bit of a resurgence in addition to the normal reliability of Burke and Hardaway. With Michigan clicking on all cylinders I'll take the Wolverines here.
Florida and Florida Gulf Coast - It has been fun. Despite the fact they decimated my (final) bracket by upsetting Georgetown in the first round, watching Florida Gulf Coast's run so far has been thoroughly enjoyable. You can't help but root for them, but the run should stop here. Florida is too good on both sides of the ball to let Gulf Coast get any momentum. Florida should win by double digits, but that doesn't mean I won't be rooting for the run to continue.
Indiana and Syracuse - Indiana got a little bit of a test from Temple in their last game, while Syracuse had a bit of trouble with California before moving on. While we can applaud both team's ability not to wilt in the pressure of a close game, looking at this matchup only one thing stands out - Indiana looks to be built to play against the patented 2-3 zone Syracuse deploys on defense. At any time, Indiana can put four guys on the court that can shoot over the zone from three, and as soon as the zone expands they have one of the best big men in the country to step into the holes in the zone and play on the inside with Zeller. Indiana will have to hit their shots, but the shots will be there to hit. I like Indiana a lot in this game.
Marquette and Miami - How is Marquette here? They were dead to rights against Davidson in the first round, and all of a sudden a team that can't hit a three to save their life hits three in a row just to put themselves in a position for a buzzer beating layup. They needed another mini-comeback to get by Butler, but here they are. Miami had their own trouble with Illinois, but they should match up significantly better against this Marquette team. All credit due to Marquette for getting it done and making it here, but they are playing a team that won't let them come back this time, and Miami should move on to the elite 8.
Thursday, March 28, 2013
Thursday, March 21, 2013
The Brackets - Initial and Final
And it begins, for real this time. So before the first games tip off with Michigan State and Valparaiso at 12:15 ET, here is my initial bracket (from Sunday night) and my final one (completed last night).
Initial:
Final:
The obvious difference here is going to be the final four. Between Sunday and Wednesday I changed my mind on three of them. My rationale there:
The other changes you'll see aren't quite as significant. Under principle I will always take a 12 seed in at least the first round. None really stood out to me, but Oregon as the underseeded Pac-12 Tournament Champs should give quite a fight to Oklahoma State (a team I also like a lot). I switched this to Oregon as it was essentially a tossup in my mind to begin with anyway. Memphis I don't care much for this year as they have not beaten a single team that made the tournament as an at large (Harvard is the only team in this field they have beat this year). Now that I know who they're playing, and despite not wanting St Mary's in the field to begin with, I think they got a good matchup and St Mary's moves on.
West:
I don't know what it is about Ohio State this year (its not the rivalry, I put them in the final four multiple times the past few years), but they rarely run away from teams and their offense at many times this season has come down to DeShaun Thomas, and no one else. I'm not in love with Notre Dame by any means, and they may be susceptible to a good defense, but if this game stays close and low scoring I like Notre Dame's chances a lot to pull off the upset.
South:
The only thing that changed here was my swap of Florida for Georgetown. But while we're here, I might as well address Michigan. Once again, its more than just fandom, Michigan is the one team I have seen every single game this season. I know what they are capable of, and they are certainly capable of making a run through this tournament. They have one of the best offenses in the country and when they start clicking can beat anyone else. Kansas has played too many close games this season, some losses some they just scraped by, and I don't think scraping by is enough against a team as explosive as Michigan. Granted, it completely depends which Michigan team shows up, but I moved them into the elite eight based on their potential, plus a Kansas team that has been less than impressive in my eyes at many times this season. Once in the elite eight, I enacted my principle rule to separate my bracket from my fandom. I will remain a Michigan fan until they are out of the tournament, but should they fall I can at least continue rooting for my bracket. Its not the best method, but the defense that either Florida or Georgetown could bring to that game could create problems for Michigan's talented offense, and the way they have played against strong defenses this year, and the way their own defense has played at times this year, my head tells me to go with the defensive team.
East:
The changes here came with Miami-Marquette and UNLV-Syracuse. For Miami, the games that stuck in my head were Wake Forest and Georgia Tech most recently. But I don't think that is a good indicator of this actual Miami team. This is a good team, that sometimes plays bad games. More regularly than other top teams perhaps, but they have the ability to beat any top team. And in all honesty, I don't consider Marquette to be one of those top teams. They have had a good year, but have played so many close games. At some point it could catch up to them, possibly against Davidson, or against Butler/Bucknell (I considered the Bucknell over Marquette upset, but ultimately stayed away), and by the time they get to this game, while both teams have faults, it came down to the probability that Miami would still be alive was greater than Marquette's in my eyes. I changed this to Miami merely as the safest option as I didn't feel great about any of the teams in this part of the bracket. Syracuse and UNLV was close in my head to begin with, but what ultimately caused the switch was the location of the game. I'm not sure what to think about Syracuse at the end of the year. Stumbled a lot down the stretch, picked it up in the Big East tournament before laying an egg in the second half of the championship. So, I found this game with the possibility of going either way. Playing on the west coast should benefit UNLV more than Syracuse. So when it comes to a toss up, I decided to stick with the team closer to home.
Champion:
No changes here. I love Indiana's path to the final. A team that does so much well without many roadblocks in front of them...there wasn't anyone in their region that I liked enough to even consider an upset. I've felt confident about Indiana's chances of just making the final since the bracket was released on Sunday, it is hard to change that feeling when considering who will win. Indiana is my pick for this season's NCAA Tournament Champion.
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Now, as with every other year, my initial bracket will inevitably be the one I should have stuck with. But so be it, bring on the madness!
And as I said in a post earlier in this week, I appreciate all the support I've gotten with this blog. Much more than I ever anticipated. I will be spending the next few weeks transforming it into an all-round sports blog, and this coverage will continue with next year's basketball season. So please, check back occasionally over the next few weeks, as more will be coming soon.
Initial:
Final:
The obvious difference here is going to be the final four. Between Sunday and Wednesday I changed my mind on three of them. My rationale there:
- Early in the season I had pegged Duke as the best team in the country. They were consistently playing the other top ranked teams, and winning. Then Ryan Kelly went down and they started losing and I essentially wrote them off. I gave them a second look when he came back, but they lost to Maryland in the ACC Tournament and I wrote them off again. I never want to judge a team based on one game, and this Duke team should be more like the team I liked (as a chance to win, not in any terms of fandom) at the beginning of the year. This is a match up that is more worthy of a final than an elite 8, but so be it. I changed to Duke for 1 - I think with Ryan Kelly they they're a significant contender and have the same team that beat Louisville earlier in the season (yes I know Louisville didn't have Gorgui Dieng in that game, I don't care, Duke as a team shoots over 40% from three, they still won that game shooting 5-20) and 2 - everyone is picking Louisville. My biggest tip to winning a large pool is find the best place to differentiate your bracket and go with it. Here it is.
- I flipped between Georgetown and Florida over and over this week. Initially I went with Florida because of the numbers. They have a top offense and a top defense according to adjusted efficiency ratings. That right there screams title contender. But they also have injuries, coming out of a historically bad SEC, and haven't shown any ability to close out close games. Georgetown's defense will keep this game close and that has been trouble for Florida all season (remember when they couldn't score a basket in the final 7:30 against Kentucky to lose? Georgetown's defense could do that all game). I'm not sure how much playing in the SEC skewed Florida's numbers, they're clearly a good team but they haven't played a truly top opponent in quite some time. Georgetown is more battle tested in the SEC and defensively is one of the best in the country. I've got Michigan waiting in the elite 8, but it was the winner of this game that I had on the track to the final four, and ultimately I feel better about Georgetown.
- I decided pretty early in the week I was giving Wisconsin too much credit for their run through the Big Ten tournament. After all, this is a team that got stomped at home against Purdue just a few days before the Big Ten tournament. I just didn't think Gonzaga was going to make a run. So I went with a different approach. Pittsburgh is a team I feel got underseeded, and very much at Gonzaga's expense. I had them closer to a 5 or 6 in my projections, and in thinking about that, if Pitt was a 5 seed and met Gonzaga in the sweet 16, I would have taken Pitt without any second thought. So here we are, just a round earlier. Same principle applies, Pitt is the worst match up Gonzaga could have asked for and I think that will lead to an early exit. And under the same principles, I moved Pitt past Wisconsin. New Mexico is a team I've loved all season, and I don't think the Mountain West gets enough attention. They historically have not fared well in the tournament, but this is the best team that has come out of the Mountain West in years. They play solid defense and have a very efficient offense. At no point do they have to travel too far from home, and they can take advantage of some favorable matchups en route to the final 4.
The other changes you'll see aren't quite as significant. Under principle I will always take a 12 seed in at least the first round. None really stood out to me, but Oregon as the underseeded Pac-12 Tournament Champs should give quite a fight to Oklahoma State (a team I also like a lot). I switched this to Oregon as it was essentially a tossup in my mind to begin with anyway. Memphis I don't care much for this year as they have not beaten a single team that made the tournament as an at large (Harvard is the only team in this field they have beat this year). Now that I know who they're playing, and despite not wanting St Mary's in the field to begin with, I think they got a good matchup and St Mary's moves on.
West:
I don't know what it is about Ohio State this year (its not the rivalry, I put them in the final four multiple times the past few years), but they rarely run away from teams and their offense at many times this season has come down to DeShaun Thomas, and no one else. I'm not in love with Notre Dame by any means, and they may be susceptible to a good defense, but if this game stays close and low scoring I like Notre Dame's chances a lot to pull off the upset.
South:
The only thing that changed here was my swap of Florida for Georgetown. But while we're here, I might as well address Michigan. Once again, its more than just fandom, Michigan is the one team I have seen every single game this season. I know what they are capable of, and they are certainly capable of making a run through this tournament. They have one of the best offenses in the country and when they start clicking can beat anyone else. Kansas has played too many close games this season, some losses some they just scraped by, and I don't think scraping by is enough against a team as explosive as Michigan. Granted, it completely depends which Michigan team shows up, but I moved them into the elite eight based on their potential, plus a Kansas team that has been less than impressive in my eyes at many times this season. Once in the elite eight, I enacted my principle rule to separate my bracket from my fandom. I will remain a Michigan fan until they are out of the tournament, but should they fall I can at least continue rooting for my bracket. Its not the best method, but the defense that either Florida or Georgetown could bring to that game could create problems for Michigan's talented offense, and the way they have played against strong defenses this year, and the way their own defense has played at times this year, my head tells me to go with the defensive team.
East:
The changes here came with Miami-Marquette and UNLV-Syracuse. For Miami, the games that stuck in my head were Wake Forest and Georgia Tech most recently. But I don't think that is a good indicator of this actual Miami team. This is a good team, that sometimes plays bad games. More regularly than other top teams perhaps, but they have the ability to beat any top team. And in all honesty, I don't consider Marquette to be one of those top teams. They have had a good year, but have played so many close games. At some point it could catch up to them, possibly against Davidson, or against Butler/Bucknell (I considered the Bucknell over Marquette upset, but ultimately stayed away), and by the time they get to this game, while both teams have faults, it came down to the probability that Miami would still be alive was greater than Marquette's in my eyes. I changed this to Miami merely as the safest option as I didn't feel great about any of the teams in this part of the bracket. Syracuse and UNLV was close in my head to begin with, but what ultimately caused the switch was the location of the game. I'm not sure what to think about Syracuse at the end of the year. Stumbled a lot down the stretch, picked it up in the Big East tournament before laying an egg in the second half of the championship. So, I found this game with the possibility of going either way. Playing on the west coast should benefit UNLV more than Syracuse. So when it comes to a toss up, I decided to stick with the team closer to home.
Champion:
No changes here. I love Indiana's path to the final. A team that does so much well without many roadblocks in front of them...there wasn't anyone in their region that I liked enough to even consider an upset. I've felt confident about Indiana's chances of just making the final since the bracket was released on Sunday, it is hard to change that feeling when considering who will win. Indiana is my pick for this season's NCAA Tournament Champion.
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Now, as with every other year, my initial bracket will inevitably be the one I should have stuck with. But so be it, bring on the madness!
And as I said in a post earlier in this week, I appreciate all the support I've gotten with this blog. Much more than I ever anticipated. I will be spending the next few weeks transforming it into an all-round sports blog, and this coverage will continue with next year's basketball season. So please, check back occasionally over the next few weeks, as more will be coming soon.
Tuesday, March 19, 2013
Blog Update
Play in games (ok ok, sorry, FIRST ROUND GAMES) start tonight as the tournament officially tips off. I started this blog about three weeks ago to count down to exactly this point, and here we are. It ended up with many more readers than I thought it would, so thanks to every single one of you that checked in regularly to see what I had to say. It at least feels that the amount of time I spend preparing for this tournament is justified.
Moving forward, the tournament should now speak for itself. I will be transforming this page into an all-around sports blog over the next few weeks. While I can't say daily updates will continue, I regularly have something to say about sports so you can count on seeing new things here with frequent updates still. In the meantime, check back Thursday as I'll post my final predictions for this tournament (and my initial bracket, just to compare).
Thanks again to everyone who's been reading regularly the past few weeks, check back soon for more.
Moving forward, the tournament should now speak for itself. I will be transforming this page into an all-around sports blog over the next few weeks. While I can't say daily updates will continue, I regularly have something to say about sports so you can count on seeing new things here with frequent updates still. In the meantime, check back Thursday as I'll post my final predictions for this tournament (and my initial bracket, just to compare).
Thanks again to everyone who's been reading regularly the past few weeks, check back soon for more.
Monday, March 18, 2013
Bracket Reaction and First Thoughts
And we're off. The least productive week in businesses all over the United States has begun. Seriously, I wonder if anyone has ever done an official study on that, but the simple fact is that millions of people across the country are spending Monday to Wednesday ignoring their jobs just to do research on brackets and put together the optimal combination of teams that will be the most fun to tear up when it inevitably goes wrong. Then of course, games tip off at noon on Thursday, certainly no time to get any work done then. But by then, no one cares. Managers will taunt their employees about that 11 over 6 first round upset that they correctly picked (but leave out that they swung and missed for the fourth straight year on that 14 seed) while phones go unanswered and profits dip. But maybe that is what this week is about, so first lets take some time to reflect on what the committee gave us to work with, then we can down to business.
Reaction:
None of the teams that made the field surprised me at all. I had 67 teams marked as locked or bubble IN as we were going through Championship Week. That 68th team I had to pull from the list I marked as OUT. I chose Tennessee, the committee went with St Marys. Frankly I didn't think either one should have made the field based on the regular season, but someone had to be the 68th team and I'm not going to nitpick about which one got it.
The teams that were left out have nothing to complain about. No one got the shaft, as I said I think St Mary's was simply lucky to be included, but the teams left out have no one to blame but themselves:
I will say the same thing everyone else is saying about Oregon - ouch. 3-0 against the top seeded Pac-12 teams UCLA and Arizona, Pac-12 tournament champions, a road win over fifth seeded UNLV, and only a single bad loss on the entire season. The committee explained they had to be dropped from their initially placed spot at 11 because of the play in game. So, ouch, their season only warrants an 11? Perhaps I predicted them a bit high at a 7, but they should feel a little insulted.
The rest of the seeding doesn't bother me too much, I think my prediction was within 2 seeds on every other team in the field, so there isn't much to complain about how it shook out. I'm a bit surprised Kansas got the second overall 1-seed with a loss to TCU on their resume and not being that far removed from an embarrassment at Baylor, but ultimately it doesn't matter too much. Kansas was going to the South region either way.
---hit the jump for info about filling out the bracket, first thoughts, and upset alerts---
Reaction:
None of the teams that made the field surprised me at all. I had 67 teams marked as locked or bubble IN as we were going through Championship Week. That 68th team I had to pull from the list I marked as OUT. I chose Tennessee, the committee went with St Marys. Frankly I didn't think either one should have made the field based on the regular season, but someone had to be the 68th team and I'm not going to nitpick about which one got it.
The teams that were left out have nothing to complain about. No one got the shaft, as I said I think St Mary's was simply lucky to be included, but the teams left out have no one to blame but themselves:
- Virginia - when you schedule so poorly out of conference it is in your best interest to at least beat the lowly teams you play. When given a second chance in conference it is in your best interest to beat the lowly teams you play. Seven losses to these lowly teams in and out of conference doomed you.
- Maryland - Beating Duke twice is impressive, but please don't pretend like that is the entire season. When you play the 300th ranked non-conference schedule, then can't finish .500 in conference, that's on you.
- Kentucky - We understand how losing Nerlens Noel affected you. You made it quite clear when you failed to win away from home every game you played without him. You had chances to prove you could adjust to life without him, but four double digit losses to non-tournament teams is not proof, it is a reason to not be here.
I will say the same thing everyone else is saying about Oregon - ouch. 3-0 against the top seeded Pac-12 teams UCLA and Arizona, Pac-12 tournament champions, a road win over fifth seeded UNLV, and only a single bad loss on the entire season. The committee explained they had to be dropped from their initially placed spot at 11 because of the play in game. So, ouch, their season only warrants an 11? Perhaps I predicted them a bit high at a 7, but they should feel a little insulted.
The rest of the seeding doesn't bother me too much, I think my prediction was within 2 seeds on every other team in the field, so there isn't much to complain about how it shook out. I'm a bit surprised Kansas got the second overall 1-seed with a loss to TCU on their resume and not being that far removed from an embarrassment at Baylor, but ultimately it doesn't matter too much. Kansas was going to the South region either way.
---hit the jump for info about filling out the bracket, first thoughts, and upset alerts---
Sunday, March 17, 2013
Bracket Prediction FINAL
And here we go. The games are just about done, and I don't think the result of Ohio State and Wisconsin will change very much in the final field, so nothing left but to see what the committee says. So before the committee announces the official field here is one final prediction for the entire field, complete with seeding, locations, and matchups.
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Check back again tomorrow for an analysis of the actual bracket
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Check back again tomorrow for an analysis of the actual bracket
Selection Sunday! Final Look at the Numbers
And we are here! Selection Sunday! It's been a long time coming, but with the completion of some significant games yesterday we have a pretty good idea of what the bracket will look like. Teams that clinched an automatic bid yesterday include Memphis in Conference USA, Albany in the America East, Southern in the SWAC, North Carolina A&T in the MEAC, Kansas in the Big 12, New Mexico in the Mountain West, Akron in the MAC, Louisville in the Big East, Northwestern State in the Southland, Montana in the Big Sky, Pacific in the Big West, Oregon in the Pac 12, and New Mexico State in the WAC. On the other side, teams eliminated from contention altogether yesterday include Vermont, Vanderbilt, Prairie View A&M, Morgan State, Ohio, Stephen F Austin, Weber State, UC Irvine, and Texas-Arlington.
The remaining losers yesterday were filtered into either "definitely in" or "on the bubble." Teams that lost that we are able to lock in include NC State, Butler, Indiana, Michigan State, Kansas State, UNLV, Syracuse, and UCLA. I don't think there is anything that needs explaining with these teams, they are all easily in the field. The losers from yesterday that move to the bubble include Southern Miss, Alabama, Maryland, and Massachusetts.
Four games remain today, as the championship games in the ACC (Miami vs North Carolina), SEC (Florida vs Ole Miss), Atlantic 10 (Saint Louis vs VCU), and Big Ten (Wisconsin vs Ohio State). Of these eight teams, only Ole Miss is not 100% locked into the field, but they have put themselves in the best position they can if they don't win today. However, an at large will not be guaranteed if they don't win today so they'll want to make sure they take the automatic bid if they can.
So, with all of that said, where does that leave us today? 27 teams have been locked in to-date with automatic bids. Another 27 have finished their pre-dance season with at large profiles that are good enough to feel confident locking them into the field to give us 54 locked in so far. Seven teams playing today can be added as locks to give us a field of 61 teams. That gives us seven spots remaining to be handed out among the "bubble" group.
---For a look at all of the teams, and a final prediction of who should be in the field, hit the jump.---
The remaining losers yesterday were filtered into either "definitely in" or "on the bubble." Teams that lost that we are able to lock in include NC State, Butler, Indiana, Michigan State, Kansas State, UNLV, Syracuse, and UCLA. I don't think there is anything that needs explaining with these teams, they are all easily in the field. The losers from yesterday that move to the bubble include Southern Miss, Alabama, Maryland, and Massachusetts.
Four games remain today, as the championship games in the ACC (Miami vs North Carolina), SEC (Florida vs Ole Miss), Atlantic 10 (Saint Louis vs VCU), and Big Ten (Wisconsin vs Ohio State). Of these eight teams, only Ole Miss is not 100% locked into the field, but they have put themselves in the best position they can if they don't win today. However, an at large will not be guaranteed if they don't win today so they'll want to make sure they take the automatic bid if they can.
So, with all of that said, where does that leave us today? 27 teams have been locked in to-date with automatic bids. Another 27 have finished their pre-dance season with at large profiles that are good enough to feel confident locking them into the field to give us 54 locked in so far. Seven teams playing today can be added as locks to give us a field of 61 teams. That gives us seven spots remaining to be handed out among the "bubble" group.
---For a look at all of the teams, and a final prediction of who should be in the field, hit the jump.---
Saturday, March 16, 2013
Filling the Field - Bubble Teams and At Large Teams
We are running out of teams. After yesterday's games there are only 86 teams remaining alive for a bid, and 68 spots in the tournament. We only have 18 more teams to lose before the field is set. Before looking at the new at large contenders, we must pay our respects to the teams whose NCAA Tournament hopes officially ended yesterday: Boston College, Charlotte, LSU, Jackson State, UTEP, Bethune-Cookman, Southeast Louisiana, Nebraska, St Josephs, Kent State, Tulsa, North Dakota, Delaware State, Sam Houston State, Texas State, Western Michigan, Alabama A&M, Long Beach State, Florida State, Northern Colorado, Texas-San Antonio, Utah, and Cal Poly.
No teams received automatic bids yesterday, but a number of teams are moving into the field as their pre-tournament season ends, but their at large resume is too good to pass up. These teams include: Michigan, Illinois, Duke, Georgetown, San Diego State, Arizona, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Missouri, and Colorado State. Most of these teams should speak for themselves, but taking a quick moment to address the weakest of these resumes - Illinois hit a bad stretch in conference play and finished under .500 in conference. But their overall body of work leaves no questions. Six wins over the top 50, and four over the top 20 while playing the fifth most difficult schedule in the country will not only guarantee you a spot in the field, it should put you in pretty easily. Missouri is the other team of question, but they should be easily in as well. Despite their reputation for being unable to win away from home, they do have wins over VCU and Illinois on neutral sites this season, and haven't lost to anyone outside the top 100. I would put both of these teams somewhere in an 8-9 game, which would find them solidly in the field.
Bubble Interest:
Today's games feature a number of championships as automatic bids will be handed out in the America East, Big 12, Big East, Big Sky, Big West, Conference USA, MAC, MEAC, Mountain West, Pac-12, Southland, SWAC, and WAC conferences. If you are a fan of any team on the bubble, there are a few games you'll want to pay attention to:
Conference USA Championship - Memphis will be in the tournament regardless how this game ends up, while Southern Miss will likely need the automatic bid. So if Memphis wins, one bid league. If Southern Miss wins, two bid league. Bubble teams will be rooting hard for Memphis.
SEC Semifinals - Alabama is making a late push for an at large, but likely needs to beat Florida to have an at large case, and that would keep them alive for the automatic bid as well. On the other side, Ole Miss is on the verge of solidifying an at large, but a loss to Vanderbilt would still be damaging. Best case scenario for bubble teams would be a Florida and Vanderbilt win today, then a Florida win over Vanderbilt tomorrow to prevent a bid thief.
ACC Semifinals - Bubble teams now need Maryland to get out of this tournament as soon as possible. Every win moving forward gives them a little bit more of an at large case, and keeps them alive for the automatic bid. If you're rooting for any other bubble team, you're rooting for North Carolina today.
Atlantic 10 Semifinals - Massachusetts is threatening to sneak in and grab a last second bid. Bubble teams will want to see them out of this tournament today, for the same reasons as Maryland. A win for VCU over Massachusetts today would make many bubble teams feel better.
---hit the jump to see the bubble profiles for yesterday's losers---
No teams received automatic bids yesterday, but a number of teams are moving into the field as their pre-tournament season ends, but their at large resume is too good to pass up. These teams include: Michigan, Illinois, Duke, Georgetown, San Diego State, Arizona, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Missouri, and Colorado State. Most of these teams should speak for themselves, but taking a quick moment to address the weakest of these resumes - Illinois hit a bad stretch in conference play and finished under .500 in conference. But their overall body of work leaves no questions. Six wins over the top 50, and four over the top 20 while playing the fifth most difficult schedule in the country will not only guarantee you a spot in the field, it should put you in pretty easily. Missouri is the other team of question, but they should be easily in as well. Despite their reputation for being unable to win away from home, they do have wins over VCU and Illinois on neutral sites this season, and haven't lost to anyone outside the top 100. I would put both of these teams somewhere in an 8-9 game, which would find them solidly in the field.
Bubble Interest:
Today's games feature a number of championships as automatic bids will be handed out in the America East, Big 12, Big East, Big Sky, Big West, Conference USA, MAC, MEAC, Mountain West, Pac-12, Southland, SWAC, and WAC conferences. If you are a fan of any team on the bubble, there are a few games you'll want to pay attention to:
Conference USA Championship - Memphis will be in the tournament regardless how this game ends up, while Southern Miss will likely need the automatic bid. So if Memphis wins, one bid league. If Southern Miss wins, two bid league. Bubble teams will be rooting hard for Memphis.
SEC Semifinals - Alabama is making a late push for an at large, but likely needs to beat Florida to have an at large case, and that would keep them alive for the automatic bid as well. On the other side, Ole Miss is on the verge of solidifying an at large, but a loss to Vanderbilt would still be damaging. Best case scenario for bubble teams would be a Florida and Vanderbilt win today, then a Florida win over Vanderbilt tomorrow to prevent a bid thief.
ACC Semifinals - Bubble teams now need Maryland to get out of this tournament as soon as possible. Every win moving forward gives them a little bit more of an at large case, and keeps them alive for the automatic bid. If you're rooting for any other bubble team, you're rooting for North Carolina today.
Atlantic 10 Semifinals - Massachusetts is threatening to sneak in and grab a last second bid. Bubble teams will want to see them out of this tournament today, for the same reasons as Maryland. A win for VCU over Massachusetts today would make many bubble teams feel better.
---hit the jump to see the bubble profiles for yesterday's losers---
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