Conference Tournament Preview - ASUN, NEC, OVC, Patriot, WCC

Before we begin today, lets take a moment of silence for our fallen comrades.  The following schools have been officially eliminated from contention for the NCAA tournament due to losses in their respective conference tournaments and no hope for an at large bid: Radford, UNC Asheville, Presbyterian, Loyola (IL), Cleveland State, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, and Coastal Carolina.  That brings our number of teams still alive for a bid in the tournament down to 297.  Take a look at the conference tournament tab up top to see updated brackets reflecting the results of yesterday's games (Big South and Horizon were the only ones with games) and the Countdown to 68 tab to see the full list of all teams still alive by conference.  Before diving into the conference tournaments today, lets take a quick look at the action among at large candidates yesterday.

In the ACC, Duke cruises over Virginia Tech at home as they continue their hunt for a 1-seed.  In the Big East, Marquette had a battle but beat Rutgers on the road to hold their position in the field.  They won't move much with that win, but it prevents them from dropping.  Notre Dame crushed St Johns in a game that got violent at the end.  The committee won't leave St Johns out because they're throwing punches in games, but they will leave them out for dropping five of their last six.  I think their at large hopes are done.  In the SEC, Missouri beat Arkansas by 30 in a game Arkansas needed to prove they could win against quality teams away from home.  Not a good example, and they may be done.  The best they can do now is run deep into the SEC tournament, and get a couple big wins along the way.  In a virtual elimination game, Ole Miss stayed alive as they beat Alabama, while Alabama's hopes have run out.  They have no real good wins, and a number of bad losses.  They'll need to win the SEC tournament at this point.  The Big Ten had the best action of the night as Ohio State downed Indiana on Indiana's home court.  The scenario is now open for a four way tie at the top of the Big Ten, and Indiana is now seeing their stranglehold on a top seed slipping away.  Ohio State will get a nice boost in seeding, while Indiana is going to need to bounce back either at Michigan or in the tournament to make sure they maintain a top seed.  Iowa kept their slim at large hopes alive by beating Illinois at home.  They'll probably need at least one more quality win in the Big Ten tournament to make their case, but its a step in the right direction.  Illinois shouldn't be in danger of missing the field, but they'll probably get a bit of a drop in their projected seed because of the loss.  In Conference USA, Memphis avoided a bad loss on the road as they slipped by UTEP with a two point win, while Southern Miss did what any at large team can't do: picked up a bad loss to Marshall without much else on their profile.  With no chances for good wins the rest of the way, they are out of at large contention and will need to win the Conference USA tournament.  In the Mountain West, Boise State missed out on a big win for their profile as they lost on the road at UNLV.  They will need to win against San Diego State in the season finale to add to their at large profile, or else need a big tournament run.  UNLV won't move much with this home win, but holds their position solidly in the field.  And finally, in the Big 12, the only game of note saw Kansas State beating TCU at home to simply avoid a bad loss and hold their current position.

---conference tournament previews and predictions for those starting today after the jump---

Conference Tournaments Preview - Big South and Horizon

Before we get into the meat of what today is really about, let me say one thing.  If I had a dollar for every time I told a team they can't afford to lose a game and they did....well, I've only been saying it for about a week, but I think I'm starting to afford a pretty nice dinner for myself at least.  Baylor - you could not afford to lose to Texas last night.  Snap judgement: beat Kansas or win the Big 12 tournament.  Any other scenario will not put you in the NCAA tournament this year.  In the other two games of note last night, the favorites did what was required of them as Kansas took care of Texas Tech in convincing fashion and Louisville put away Cincinnati.  Both of these teams are hunting for 1-seeds, and neither one gave anyone any reason to think they don't deserve it based solely on yesterday's performances.  Cincinnati, now 2-6 in their last eight games, is not doing themselves any favors.  While a road loss at Louisville shouldn't knock them down much, and as long as they can take care of South Florida at home shouldn't be worried about missing the tournament; they might want to win a couple games just to remember what it feels like before the NCAA tournament if nothing else.

Now, for the true meaning of the day: Today marks the official beginning of Championship Week!  With the first rounds of the first conference tournaments beginning today, we can officially start the countdown to the field of 68.  Entering today, we had 304 teams alive for 68 spots in the field, with 31 spots going to the conference tournament winners and 37 spots going to at large teams remaining from teams that did not win their tournament.  Every day until Selection Sunday on March 17, more teams will be eliminated.  As they are eliminated from their conference tournaments, only then will we evaluate their at large chances and they will either be placed into the field as an At Large Lock, on the bubble, or eliminated from contention entirely.  See the tabs above to follow the conference tournament brackets, or follow the status of all teams in the countdown to 68.  Today, the tournament begins for the Big South and the Horizon League.  Seven teams will be eliminated between these two conferences by day's end.  So, without further ado, lets take a look at these two conferences.

---follow the jump for the tournament previews and predictions---

Notes from Sunday's Games

First of all, before we take a look at Sunday's action, note the new tab up top.  All of the conference tournament brackets have been included in the tab labeled "Conference Tournaments."  Or, just click here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AkZE6sc7QKRPdGVlT3hTU1BhYUlzNHI1MkRucGxqNEE&output=html

I will try to keep this up to date on a daily basis, especially once the elimination starts.  Look for a preview and my predictions for the first tournaments to kick off starting tomorrow.  Now, a look at the games that took place yesterday involving contenders for tournament positions.


In the ACC, Virginia did exactly what you're not supposed to do after a big win for a bubble team: lose to Boston College.  Maryland did it earlier and now Virginia is following in their footsteps.  I think Virginia has a better resume to take that loss, but it certainly is a step back and leaves much less room for error moving forward.  North Carolina and NC State were also in action, and recorded victories over the bottom half of the league.  Not noteworthy games, but always important to avoid losing them.

In the Big Ten, talk about a bounce back win for Michigan.  A few days after a stunning loss to previously winless-in-conference Penn State, Michigan turns around and scores a huge win over rival Michigan State at home.  The win will keep Michigan in contention for a 1-seed despite the bad loss (right about the same level as Kansas and Georgetown, who have losses to TCU and South Florida respectively), but Michigan will need to keep winning to stay in contention.  Michigan State has now lost three in a row, although against three quality opponents.  But the losing streak will hurt their seed a little bit as other teams climb around them, and they will need to start winning again to try to climb back up.  Wisconsin put up a surprising loss to Purdue at home.  They are already solidly in the tournament field, but that sort of loss will cause them to drop a bit in seed.

And...that was kind of it for Sunday.  Looking ahead to Monday night, only three games of note:

Texas Tech at Kansas - There shouldn't be much to see here, but we've seen the crazy upset more than once this year.  Kansas will need to win to remain in contention for a 1-seed, as they can not afford more than one loss to the bottom of the conference.

Baylor at Texas - Baylor needs to win here, as they are in danger of falling out of at large contention.  A loss to Texas would be bad for their resume and something Baylor can not afford at this point in the season.

Cincinnati at Louisville - At least Cincinnati got a win over Connecticut over the weekend to snap their skid, because it doesn't get easier.  A loss wouldn't be too damaging, but a win would be huge for their profile and projected seed.  Louisville on the other hand, can't afford to lose if they want to continue to have a shot at a 1-seed.


And finally, before we go, with elimination tournaments beginning tomorrow in the Big South and Horizon conferences, a look at the official list shows 304 teams officially still alive for a spot in the NCAA tournament.  As always, no team is eliminated from contention UNTIL they are eliminated from their conference tournament.  And only at that time will I determine their final at large status.  Happy Championship Week everyone!

Notes from Saturday's Games

Ok, so, serious question.  Can we find 68 teams for the tournament this year?  I realize there are 31 automatic bids that we have to give out, but that leaves 37 other teams that need to be put into the field.  Bubble teams keep losing, and there was no shortage of bubble losses on Saturday.  See below for a look at what the tournament candidates did in conference on Saturday.


In the Atlantic 10, Saint Louis is going to be the team to beat in this conference.  After Saturday's win at George Washington, they have won eleven straight.  A win in either of their final two games will clinch the top seed in the A10 Tournament.  VCU proved they could beat anyone.  We know Butler is good, they have already beat Indiana, Gonzaga, and Marquette this year, and VCU crushed them.  There is no question about VCU's resume and they will get a boost to their seed with a performance like that.  Butler has now dropped two straight to the top two teams in the conference and will need to turn it around to prevent their seed from dropping too far.  Xavier's at large resume took another hit as they lost at home to Massachusetts.  They are now hanging by a thread, and any more losses may cut that thread.  They need wins in their last two against Saint Louis and Butler.  Massachusetts was already in that scenario, and got the win in this game.  They'll have to keep it up with wins the rest of the way to keep their at large hopes alive.  Butler is next for them.  Temple and La Salle took care of business at home against the lower tier of the conference to avoid bad losses.  And if it wasn't clear already, Charlotte is done.  Two bad losses after I said they needed to win out, they now need the automatic bid from the conference.  Rhode Island has officially been eliminated from the A10 tournament as they can not finish in the top 12.  One more team will miss the tournament, and with two games to play, Chartotte has fallen into a battle to just make the tournament, tied with Dayton and George Washington in the fight to avoid that final elimination spot.

---more after the jump---

Conferences to Date - Part 5 - SEC, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Summit, Sun Belt, WCC, WAC

Before we begin today's look at the final conferences to date, we have an important update from the Ivy League.  With no conference tournament in the Ivy League, there are two important developments from Friday's games.  First, with losses Cornell and Yale have officially been eliminated from contention for the automatic bid.  Second, the only two remaining contenders, Princeton and Harvard, faced off with Princeton winning.  Harvard retains a half game lead only because of an extra game played, but if both teams win out, they will have a one game playoff for the automatic bid.

Now, moving on to today's look at conferences, we begin with the SEC.  There is no other conference in the country that has more teams that could go either in or out in the final weeks of the season.  Of the fourteen teams in the conference, seven would have reason to believe they still have a possibility for an at large, but only two with any reason to feel particularly safe at this point.  All fourteen will participate in the conference tournament.  The seven teams that will need to take the automatic bid in order to make the NCAA tournament are Texas A&M, LSU, Vanderbilt, Georgia, South Carolina, Auburn, and Mississippi State.  The tournament will take place March 13-17, with the championship on March 17 televised on ABC.

At Large Contenders:
Florida certainly appears to be this conference's best team.  They have been flirting with a 1-seed all season, but a couple recent road losses have damaged their opportunity for that.  It is not too late for the Gators to get back into the top seed discussion, but they will likely need to win out and win the conference tournament to do so.  Another loss in the SEC would likely drop them too far to climb back by the end of the season.

Kentucky is experiencing quite a different season than last year's team.  They are currently tied second in the conference, but they only managed to pick up their first truly good win in overtime against Missouri at the end of February.  They don't have any truly damaging losses, with Texas A&M being the worst, but they'll need to use the rest of the season to convince people they should be in.  With road games at Arkansas and Georgia, there are opportunities for damaging losses, but also a home game against Florida for an opportunity for a big win.  Multiple losses down the stretch would require a big showing in the conference tournament to silence the critics, and taking the automatic bid might be the only way to make sure of it.  But a winning streak down the stretch should clinch a spot for them, at which point the conference tournament would largely be for their seed.

Alabama has won enough games in conference to remain in the discussion, but their overall profile is not very impressive.  Their best win is over Kentucky, but they have lost to Dayton, Mercer, Tulane, and Auburn.  Not good.  After their loss to Florida today, they will need to win out over Ole Miss and Georgia and make a deep run in the tournament to be a serious at large contender, and winning the conference tournament would be the only way to feel safe on Selection Sunday.

Ole Miss started the season very strong, but lately they've been struggling.  Unfortunately for them, their strong start didn't include much in the way of impressive wins.  A lone win over Missouri is the best they can offer, but they also have a very bad loss to South Carolina on the profile.  Winning out in the SEC would probably be a requirement in order to avoid bad losses to Mississippi State and LSU, and a home game to Alabama would give them an edge over a fellow bubble team.  If they can't do that, they may be able to sneak in depending on their SEC tournament performance, but winning the tournament would be the only way to feel truly safe.

Missouri is the only other team besides Florida in the SEC who can actually feel good about their at large chances right now.  Non-conference wins over Illinois and VCU remain huge for Missouri, and their home win over Florida should clinch their spot.  As long as they don't end the season with three straight losses and an early SEC tournament exit they'll be in, but they'll want to use the rest of the season to try to improve their profile and seed for the NCAA tournament.

Tennessee came out of nowhere to join the discussion for an at large berth from the SEC.  They have won six straight, but a bad start to the season is requiring this surge as they were hovering around .500 overall prior to this run.  Wins over Florida and Wichita State, as well as a 30 point beating of Kentucky solidifies their resume, but a home loss to Georgia early in the season hurts.  They'll need to avoid bad losses on the road to Georgia and Auburn down the stretch, and a home game against Missouri to close the regular season will be important.  If they start losing again, it may require the automatic bid in the SEC Tournament to make the big dance.

Arkansas will need to finish the season very strong in order to get true consideration, but they do have wins over Florida, Missouri, and Oklahoma to make a case.  They will have to overcome losses to South Carolina and Vanderbilt, but wins down the stretch over Kentucky and Missouri would be big, and they'll have to avoid losing to Texas A&M, but they certainly have an opportunity to make a case.  If they can't start a winning streak though, they will likely require the automatic bid in order to get in.

--more after the jump--

Conferences to Date - Part 4 - MEAC, MVC, MWC, NEC, OVC, Pac-12, Patriot

Continuing our look through all of the conferences.  For the first three parts, check the archives on the right in February, and for a full list of all teams by conference check the countdown to 68 above.


Beginning with another one-bid league, the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC) is not typically a big contender on the national stage, but it was only last year that the conference had one of the biggest upsets in the history of the tournament, with Norfolk State knocking off Missouri in the first round as a 15-seed.  They will only be getting one bid this year, from the conference tournament champion, but whoever it is would love to repeat a feat like that.  All 13 teams in the conference will make the conference tournament with a chance to take that automatic bid.  The teams, in order of current standings are: Norfolk State, North Carolina Central, Savannah State, Hampton, Delaware State, Morgan State, Bethune Cookman, North Carolina A&T, Florida A&M, Howard, Coppin State, Maryland-Eastern Shore, and South Carolina State.  The tournament will take place from March 11-16, with the automatic bid handed out in the final on March 16.  The televised broadcast is still TBD.

--more after the jump--

Recent Games Recap and Impact - March 1

Before continuing with the look at all conferences, there has been quite a lot that has happened over the past couple days that will impact the field.  Lets take a quick look at the games that happened and their impact on the teams involved.

Wednesday, February 27 - Quite a lot of bubble impact and upsets today...

Michigan 78 at 84 Penn State - Ok, lets get this out of the way.  I am doing this as unbiased as possible, but as a Michigan alum, this physically hurts.  Penn State's upset over Michigan certainly won't help the Nittany Lions make the field, they'll need to repeat the feat multiple times in the conference tournament for that to happen, but it has a big impact on Michigan.  Prior to this game, they were well in the hunt for a 1-seed and for at least a share of the regular season Big Ten title.  Needless to say, this is a big setback there.  They still have two big opportunities to turn it around with home games against Michigan State and Indiana, and if they can win out they should be right back in the discussion.  Dropping either one of those games (or the road game at Purdue in between) would likely mean they would have to win the Big Ten Tournament just to be considered again.

Georgetown 79 at 78 Connecticut - It took two overtimes, but Georgetown holding on for a one point road win at Connecticut is huge for the Hoyas with so many other teams losing around them.  They are the likely favorites for the top seed in the Big East tournament, and increased their chances for a top seed in the NCAA Tournament.

 Virginia Tech 58 at 76 Miami (FL) - Not really much to say about this game.  Miami took care of business against the bottom of the conference, but the significance here is that they bounced back from their bad loss at Wake Forest and remain a candidate for a 1-seed.  It is also one step closer to clinching the top seed for the ACC tournament.

Akron 88 at 81 Ohio - A very important game in the MAC that may have flown under the radar.  Akron is very much in the hunt for an at large bid should they fail to win the MAC tournament, but it is far from a sure thing.  They need the best wins they can get, and on the road at Ohio is about as good as the Zips can do in the MAC.  They'll still want to secure the automatic bid to be sure, but in case they miss it they'll still have a chance for an at large.

Drake 67 at 56 Indiana State - While we haven't taken a look at the Missouri Valley State, Indiana State was in the discussion for an at large spot.  But, they keep doing things like this.  While they have wins over the likes of Miami, Creighton, and Wichita State, they have now been swept on the season by Drake, to add to a number of other bad losses.  This is very bad for Indiana State's at large chances and they'll need some help now.

--see more after the jump--