In the ACC, Duke cruises over Virginia Tech at home as they continue their hunt for a 1-seed. In the Big East, Marquette had a battle but beat Rutgers on the road to hold their position in the field. They won't move much with that win, but it prevents them from dropping. Notre Dame crushed St Johns in a game that got violent at the end. The committee won't leave St Johns out because they're throwing punches in games, but they will leave them out for dropping five of their last six. I think their at large hopes are done. In the SEC, Missouri beat Arkansas by 30 in a game Arkansas needed to prove they could win against quality teams away from home. Not a good example, and they may be done. The best they can do now is run deep into the SEC tournament, and get a couple big wins along the way. In a virtual elimination game, Ole Miss stayed alive as they beat Alabama, while Alabama's hopes have run out. They have no real good wins, and a number of bad losses. They'll need to win the SEC tournament at this point. The Big Ten had the best action of the night as Ohio State downed Indiana on Indiana's home court. The scenario is now open for a four way tie at the top of the Big Ten, and Indiana is now seeing their stranglehold on a top seed slipping away. Ohio State will get a nice boost in seeding, while Indiana is going to need to bounce back either at Michigan or in the tournament to make sure they maintain a top seed. Iowa kept their slim at large hopes alive by beating Illinois at home. They'll probably need at least one more quality win in the Big Ten tournament to make their case, but its a step in the right direction. Illinois shouldn't be in danger of missing the field, but they'll probably get a bit of a drop in their projected seed because of the loss. In Conference USA, Memphis avoided a bad loss on the road as they slipped by UTEP with a two point win, while Southern Miss did what any at large team can't do: picked up a bad loss to Marshall without much else on their profile. With no chances for good wins the rest of the way, they are out of at large contention and will need to win the Conference USA tournament. In the Mountain West, Boise State missed out on a big win for their profile as they lost on the road at UNLV. They will need to win against San Diego State in the season finale to add to their at large profile, or else need a big tournament run. UNLV won't move much with this home win, but holds their position solidly in the field. And finally, in the Big 12, the only game of note saw Kansas State beating TCU at home to simply avoid a bad loss and hold their current position.
---conference tournament previews and predictions for those starting today after the jump---
The Atlantic Sun tournament is being hosted by Mercer University and will be played on the home court of the top seed Mercer Bears. Only one team will get into the NCAA tournament here, and will need to win the tournament to do so. Two teams are already out of contention, as Northern Kentucky was not eligible for postseason play during their transition period from Division II, and Kennesaw State finished at the bottom of the conference to miss the tournament. Of the competing teams, Mercer will be the favorite, playing on their home court. Florida Gulf Coast is a team to watch as they have already proven they can beat the best this season, with an early season win over Miami (FL). Stetson as the three seed moves the ball better than anyone in the conference, and as a team averages 16.5 assists per game, good for tenth in the entire NCAA. Keep on reading for how I see this bracket playing out.
My Predictions:
First Round Analysis:
Mercer has swept Lipscomb in two meetings this season, including a 25 point victory on this floor already. With nine wins in their last ten games there is no reason to think they'll falter now.
Both Jacksonville and USC Upstate have been on a bit of a slide to end the season, as losers in six of their last eight each. They also split the season series each winning at home. USC Upstate is coming into this game at least looking like they may have turned around their skid, with a 32 point win on the road to finish the season, while Jacksonville has lost three straight. I'll take Upstate to move forward in this game on the back of the conference's leading scorer, Torrey Craig.
Florida Gulf Coast has won nine of their last eleven and swept North Florida on the season. Should be more of the same here.
Stetson finished the season strong as winners in four of their last five, while East Tennessee State was the recipient of the aforementioned 32 point home drubbing at the hands of USC Upstate to close the season. No question who has the momentum going into this game, I like Stetson to advance.
Semifinals Analysis:
Mercer at home seems to be too formidable of an opponent for USC Upstate, as they have already swept them this season, and Mercer has not lost a home game yet this year. Playing at home should pay dividends as they advance to the final.
Florida Gulf Coast may have split the season with Stetson, but a 31 point victory on their home court makes me think they have an edge at a neutral site. Both teams are playing well heading into the tournament, but I think Florida Gulf Coast takes it in a close game to reach the final.
Championship Game Analysis:
I took the higher seed almost all the way across the board in this conference, and I do think there is a significant difference between the top 3 teams and the rest of the conference. It only seems appropriate to have the top two battle it out for the automatic berth. No one came closer to beating Mercer at home than Florida Gulf Coast this season, as they took the game into overtime, but ultimately Mercer proved why they are so good at home. I don't see them losing while the tournament is on their own floor, I see Mercer taking the automatic bid for the Atlantic Sun.
Non-Predicted Dark Horse:
Stetson plays some great team basketball, and doesn't rely heavily on any one player. I've mentioned their impressive amount of assists on a regular basis, and they have four players averaging double digits on the season. They can go deep into their bench if needed, which gives them some versatility. They'll likely have to win on the road more than once to take the automatic bid, but they have a chance.
The Northeast Conference Tournament plays every game at the home venue of the higher seed. From this comes an advantage to top seeded Robert Morris, who will have to lose at home if they are to be eliminated. Only one team will receive a bid from this conference, and they will have to win the tournament in order to get it. Only the top eight teams in the conference advance to the conference tournament, meaning Fairleigh Dickinson, Monmouth, Sacred Heart, and St Francis (PA) have already been removed from contention. After Robert Morris, the second through fourth seeds, held by Wagner, Long Island, and Bryant, all have identical 12-6 records in conference. With that is the potential to be a wide open field, and any of the eight teams in the tournament are alive until they lose. Read on for my predictions how this tournament will go.
My Predictions:
First Round Analysis:
In their only meeting this year, eighth seeded St Francis (NY) topped Robert Morris in a game at St Francis. They have not played at Robert Morris yet, and I expect this meeting to go differently. Robert Morris has won 14 of their last 16 games and playing their tournament opener at home should be able to advance.
Bryant gets the game at home, but Mount St Mary's has been the hot team of the two recently. Bryant had a great start in conference play, but stumbled to losses in four of their last seven down the stretch, including a loss at Mount St Marys. The other time they played Bryant needed overtime to clinch the win at home. Since that time, Mount St Mary's has won seven in a row and nine of their last ten. I think they'll get it done on the road to move on.
The last time Wagner played Central Connecticut State, they put up 101 points. In the two home games they have played since then they poured in 89 and 94. Not bad for a team averaging 68.3 points per game on the season. Playing like that will make them tough to beat at home, too tough for Central Connecticut.
Long Island can score in bunches, and are preparing to face Quinnipiac at home for the second time in four days. The first time, Long Island put in 96 points, including 62 in the second half, but gave up 90. Quinnipiac rebounds better than anyone in the country, limiting second chance points. If Long Island doesn't shoot as well, Quinnipiac won't give up many second chance points, and I don't think Long Island can match the 55% rate they shot the first time. I like Quinnipiac to hold them to a lower rate from the field and move on.
Semifinal Analysis:
After losing to Robert Morris in their only meeting of the season, Mount St Mary's went on a 9-1 run to end the season. Robert Morris finished the season 8-2 but didn't lose at home in that stretch. The top seed favors Robert Morris here, as I think they sneak by Mount St Mary's in a close game to reach the final.
Wagner has only lost at home twice this season, but Quinnipiac was one of those teams to beat them in their only meeting this season. However, since that loss, Wagner is averaging 89.5 points per game at home (and 76.25 on the road). They have been on fire recently, and as long as they keep that up should be able to avenge their loss in this match up.
Championship Game Analysis:
Robert Morris hosted Wagner about a month ago, and it took overtime for them to get the win at home. This would be a rematch of that game, and as I keep saying, Wagner's offense has been lights out since then. They seem to have found their stride at the right time, and I think they can go into Robert Morris and come out with the automatic berth for the conference.
Non-Predicted Dark Horse:
Quinnipiac, as I have said already, rebounds better than anyone in the country. Getting and preventing second chance points gives a team a chance to beat anyone. They have beat each of the top four seeds once already this year. They're at a disadvantage by likely having to play on the road the entire way, but have a team capable of beating anyone in the conference.
The Ohio Valley Conference tournament has the potential to create a bid thief league if Belmont fails to win the tournament. Of course, it also has the ability to end up being a one bid league regardless who wins the tournament. Belmont certainly has no guarantees of making the tournament as an at large, so like everyone else in the tournament, they'll want to focus on taking the automatic bid. The only thing we can be sure of is that if Belmont does win the tournament, then this will be a one bid league. Unlike many of the conference tournaments we've looked at so far, the Ohio Valley plays at a legitimately neutral site instead of on campus courts. Murray State has been the star of this conference the past couple years, but this year will be looking to play spoiler to top seed Belmont. Eastern Kentucky and Tennessee State, at the three seed and four seed, actually have the second and third best records in conference, but got seeded behind Murray State due to divisions. See below for how I predict this conference to end up:
My Prediction:
First Round Analysis:
Morehead State and Tennessee-Martin played once this year, and it resulted in a 14 point win for Morehead State playing at Tennessee-Martin. Take away UT-Martin's homecourt and I've got Morehead State moving on.
Southeast Missouri State puts up impressive numbers on the offensive end, ranking 37th in the NCAA in points per game, 23rd in assists per game, and 31st in field goal percentage. But their defensive numbers aren't so good, as they've allowed 80 or more seven times in conference play. Eastern Illinois, however, is way down at 319th in points per game. They prefer to win games on the defensive end, but I see Southeast Missouri getting too much offense for Eastern Illinois to keep up with.
Quarterfinals Analysis:
Morehead State and Tennessee State played at the end of February in a game that Morehead State won 101-100 in regulation. A very impressive game, but Morehead State had to hit almost 62% of their shots from the field and 15 three pointers to do it, while Tennessee State was a more pedestrian 46% of the field, and only lost by one. I can't imagine Morehead State repeating numbers like that, and Tennessee State should be able to win on a neutral site if with a more realistic shooting night from Morehead State.
Southeast Missouri State boasts an impressive offense, but Eastern Kentucky has a team that can match the offense, and plays a bit better on defense. In their only meeting this year Eastern Kentucky was able to win on the road, and should be able to do so again on a neutral site.
Semifinals Analysis:
Belmont has split the two games they have played this season with Tennessee State, but there is a reason they finished on top of this conference. They average 77.2 points per game while shooting just under 50% from the field, and as a team hit almost 40% of their threes. That is a dangerous team in any conference, and they should be able to use their offensive prowess to get through to the final.
Eastern Kentucky did finish conference play with the second best record, but was relegated below Murray State because of the divisional split in the Ohio Valley. Murray State comes into the tournament as losers in four of their last six games, and already has a loss at home to Eastern Kentucky this year. I'll take Eastern Kentucky to advance to the final.
Championship Game Analysis:
Belmont can't count on an at large bid, and Eastern Kentucky's only hope is to take the automatic bid, but I think Belmont should take care of business and wrap up their NCAA tournament berth with the Ohio Valley tournament. They have beat Eastern Kentucky twice this year, and I see them making it three in the championship.
Non-Predicted Dark Horse:
Tennessee State has already beaten Belmont this year, and has played their share of good teams. They'll have confidence and the ability to knock off the top seed and claim the automatic bid.
The Patriot League tournament holds every game at the home court of the higher seed. Immediate advantage to Bucknell, who will need to lose at home if they are to miss receiving the automatic bid. There are no at large contenders in the Patriot, so whoever manages to win the conference tournament will be the only team from this conference in the NCAA tournament. The top-seeded Bucknell Bison only lost five times all season, but another loss in in tournament would be considered a bad loss, and with only one good win on the season to counter it can't really make a solid case for an at large. But, they have only lost once on their home court this season, so they will be the favorite to take the automatic bid. Third seeded Lehigh was hoping to have their star back for the tournament in CJ McCollum, but he is listed as doubtful to play in the entire tournament. Keep reading for my predictions how this tournament will go.
My Predictions:
First Round Analysis:
Bucknell's strong home record should ensure they don't have any trouble with Navy - a team they just beat by 16 on the road, and Navy has only won twice in conference all season. Bucknell should advance.
Army has won five of their last six games, including a 14 point win at American in that stretch. Getting this game at home should be a similar result, with Army moving on.
Lafayette has swept Holy Cross this year, and won five straight heading into the tournament. Holy Cross on the other hand, hasn't won five conference games at all this year. Lafayette shouldn't have any trouble at home.
Lehigh will miss CJ McCollum, and they have split with Colgate this season, but playing at home should give them a boost in the first round. They did beat Colgate by 15 on their home court, and I like them to advance here.
Semifinals Analysis:
Bucknell had some trouble with Army earlier in the season while playing at Army, but in their previous matchup on Bucknell's home court, the Bison won by 21. Homecourt advantage should see Bucknell through to the final in this matchup.
The good thing for Lehigh about this tournament format is that they do not force games on back to back days, allowing some additional time for CJ McCollum to recover. If McCollum can play, they may be the new tournament favorites, but even without McCollum, Lehigh has only lost twice on the road since his injury. But, Lafayette swept them this season, gets to play at home, and as long as McCollum is listed as doubtful, I think Lafayette will advance.
Championship Game Analysis:
I love a good upset. They're possibly the greatest thing about college basketball, but I've gone chalk this entire tournament. That's the thing about tournaments that play the entire way on the home court of the higher seed, its easier for the higher seed to prevail. I don't see anything different here either, as Bucknell is the best team in this conference and playing on their home court. Lafayette beat Bucknell by one at home, but Bucknell won by 15 on this court earlier in the year. I see them taking care of business at home to claim the automatic berth.
Non Predicted Dark Horse:
Bucknell is the best team in this conference, but Lehigh has beaten Bucknell on their home court this year, and if CJ McCollum comes back I would immediately change my bracket to make Lehigh the champ. They're a good team without him, but we saw what they are capable of last year as they beat Duke in the NCAA tournament with McCollum. But even if he doesn't come back, the rest of the team has the talent to make a run.
The WCC tournament takes place at a completely neutral site in Nevada, and features the current number one team in the country in Gonzaga. Many people are looking for reasons to knock Gonzaga off the top line for the NCAA tournament, and a loss in the conference tournament might be that reason. They'll be playing for that 1-seed, while Saint Mary's as the 2-seed in this tournament will have some at large hopes of their own. While they have only lost five times this year, their profile has some holes that may only be filled by an automatic berth. If they can reach the tournament final and lose to Gonzaga, they're probably safe, but a loss to anyone else in this conference would be cause for concern. If any team other than Gonzaga or Saint Mary's takes the automatic bid, that will be an at large spot taken away from someone sitting on the bubble in the country. My predictions for how this tournament will unfold are below.
My predictions:
First Round Analysis:
Loyola Marymount has not won a game since January 10. Enough said, no reason to think they can in the tournament, Portland should advance.
Second Round Analysis:
Portland and San Francisco split their games this year, with each one winning on the other's home court. Overall though, there are not many teams that score less than Portland, and not many teams that have a worse field goal percentage in the country. There is a reason they're the 8-seed here. San Francisco has won three straight coming into this tournament and should be able to ride their momentum through to the next round.
Pepperdine only has four wins in conference this season, and all four of them came against the bottom two teams in the conference. San Diego has two wins already over Pepperdine, and should make it three in this game.
Quarterfinals Analysis:
Santa Clara has swept San Francisco this year, including a 31 point win on San Francisco's home floor. They have also won four of their final six games, with the only losses coming on the road to Gonzaga and Saint Mary's. Santa Clara is the better team here and should move on.
San Diego beat BYU the last time they played, which was at San Diego. But since that game, San Diego is 1-5. On a neutral court, BYU should be able to take care of San Diego to move on.
Semifinals Analysis:
Gonzaga beat Santa Clara by 43 the last time they played. Neutral site shouldn't make a difference as no one has beat Gonzaga anywhere in conference yet, Gonzaga to the final.
BYU has played Saint Mary's close twice this season, but in the end, no one has beat Saint Mary's in conference except for Gonzaga. There is a talent difference between the top two teams in this conference and everyone else. Saint Mary's shoots the ball better than most teams in the country at better than 48% from the field, and star power from Matthew Dellavedova should carry Saint Mary's to the final.
Championship Game Analysis:
Yeah, I'm doing it again. Chalk across the board, but these two teams have proven they're better than the rest of the league, and there is no reason to think Gonzaga will lose now in conference. Saint Mary's should put up a good fight, but they were beat by 17 on their home court, and in the end Gonzaga should take the automatic bid on a neutral court.
Non-predicted dark horse:
No one likes chalk, including myself, so where are the potential upsets? If anyone else were to make a run in this conference, it would be BYU. They have a strong offense, and need to make a statement since their at large hopes are gone. They are 18th in the country in points per game, 22nd in assists per game, and 32nd in rebounds per game. If they can get stops on defense they are capable of getting by Saint Mary's and Gonzaga. But this is a team that gave up 99 points at home to San Francisco, so they'll need to pick up the defense to get it done.
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There is a lot going on today in the college basketball world, feel free to post your own predictions or comments, and check back tomorrow for additional previews, predictions, and analysis.
I agree with the predictions except two.
ReplyDeleteI am calling for the Central Conn. upset over Wagner and Bryant over Mt.St. Mary
Day 2 here we go!
Looks like Big South Bracket needs updated. Don't mean to be picky....just love this stuff!
ReplyDelete