There wasn't much action in the way of other games yesterday, but I think it is very important we take a moment to give a shout out to Loyola Marymount University. Here is a team that went 1-15 in conference play this season. They have now won three consecutive games in the WCC tournament to make it to the semifinals. Gonzaga comes next so they'll have quite a challenge to make it four, but hey, I'm impressed so far. The other action of note came from the Ivy League, as Princeton lost to allow Harvard back into the race with a win of their own. We are now back to a virtual tie in the Ivy League, and if both teams win out we'll be looking at a one game playoff.
As the regular season wraps up today and tomorrow, lets take a look at what these games will determine in each conference. Click the jump for a final weekend preview for each conference, as well as conference tournament previews for the America East, Colonial, and Summit Leagues.
In ACC play, the regular season champion hasn't been completely wrapped up yet, as Duke is only a single game back of Miami (FL). If Miami can beat Clemson at home, they'll clinch the outright title. But if they lose and Duke can go on the road to beat North Carolina, the regular season will split but at this point Miami has clinched the 1-seed for the ACC Tournament and Duke has already clinched the 2-seed. On the at large bubble, Virginia and Maryland have an important game against each other. Virginia has slightly more room for error, but not a lot and it might not be too much to call this game a must win for both sides. Everyone else in the conference is just jockeying for position, and no other tournament seeds have been settled yet.
Games of Note:
Clemson at Miami - Saturday 2:30pm ET - If Miami wins they will clinch the outright ACC regular season title. If they lose, it comes down to Duke.
Duke at North Carolina - Saturday 9:00pm ET - If Miami loses, Duke can use this game to share the regular season title. If Miami wins, it doesn't carry that weight but it is still dubbed the best rivalry in college basketball.
Maryland at Virginia - Sunday 6:00pmET - For all intents and purposes, this is an elimination game for Maryland. Virginia could potentially lose and claw their way back into the at large field during the ACC Tournament, while Maryland is going to have to get work done in the tournament either way to make an at large case. Either way, neither team can really afford to lose this game.
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In the Atlantic 10, there is still a lot to be decided. Three teams have been eliminated from contention already as only 12 of the 16 teams in the conference make the tournament. Duquesne, Fordham, and Rhode Island are already out. One more team will join them this weekend, and currently George Washington is holding that spot. They will need to beat Dayton to stay alive, while Charlotte, St Bonaventure, Richmond, and Dayton themselves are not safe from this spot yet. At the other end, VCU and Saint Louis are tied at the top and fighting for the regular season title and top seed in the A10 tournament. If they both lose, La Salle sneaks into that discussion as well and would get a three way split of the regular season title. On the bubble, Xavier has an important game to stay alive at Butler, needing the quality win to have something more to offer on their resume.
Games of Note:
LaSalle at Saint Louis - Saturday 1:30pm ET - Both teams have a chance at a share of the regular season title. LaSalle, one game back would need to win and have VCU lose. Saint Louis would guarantee at least a share with VCU if they win here, and would win outright if VCU also loses.
VCU at Temple - Sunday 12:00pm ET - VCU is playing for at least a share of the regular season title with the same stakes as listed above. Temple has an opportunity to add a quality win to their at large resume as they aren't guaranteed a tournament spot just yet.
Xavier at Butler - Saturday 6:30pm ET - Xavier needs a big win to remain in the at large discussion and this game would keep them alive.
Dayton at George Washington - Saturday 2:00pm ET - A loss here from George Washington would eliminate them from the A10 tournament field, but a win would open up the possibility for some extensive tiebreakers to eliminate the final team.
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In the Big 12, the race for the regular season title and 1-seed in the tournament is down to Kansas and Kansas State. Both teams are currently tied, so with both teams on the road, Kansas State would have to pick up a win at Oklahoma State while Kansas would need a win at Baylor. Neither is an easy game, especially when you consider Baylor really needs that game to remain in at large contention. They have played themselves out of the at large discussion recently and need a big win to get back in. Iowa State is the only other bubble team, but they got their big win earlier in the week and will just want to make sure they don't follow it up with a bad loss to West Virginia. Everyone else in the conference is now playing for seed, as the only other spots in the tournament field that are set are the bottom two with Texas Tech and TCU.
Games of Note:
Kansas at Baylor - Saturday 6:00pm ET - A win for Kansas would guarantee at least a share of the regular season title and the 1-seed in the Big 12 Tournament. A win for Baylor would give them a big win for their at large resume and jump them straight back into the heart of the discussion.
Kansas State at Oklahoma State - A win for Kansas State would guarantee them at least a share of the regular season title, while they would need Kansas to lose to get the 1-seed and outright title.
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In the Big East, there is currently a three way tie at the top with one game to play between Louisville, Georgetown, and Marquette. They will all be looking to win - Louisville against Notre Dame, Georgetown against Syracuse, and Marquette on the road at St Johns - to get at least a share of the Big East title. On the bubble, Cincinnati needs a win over South Florida in order to get back to .500 in conference play, and avoid a loss that would be very bad on their resume. The bottom four seeds of the tournament are set with Rutgers, Seton Hall, South Florida, and DePaul, but all other seeds are variable at this point.
Games of Note:
Notre Dame at Louisville - Saturday 4:00pm ET
Syracuse at Georgetown - Saturday 12:00pm ET
Marquette at St Johns - Saturday 2:00pm ET - This chunk of games will determine the Big East regular season champ or co-champs, as well as the top three seeds in the conference tournament.
South Florida at Cincinnati - Saturday 4:00pm ET - A win is needed here for Cincinnati to feel good about their tournament spot. They've been slipping but have the opportunity to wrap it up by avoiding a bad loss here and just avoiding anything terrible in the Big East Tournament.
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There are just so many things that could still happen in the Big Ten. Four teams could still split for the Big Ten title depending on the result of Indiana at Michigan. If Indiana wins, its all theirs, but if Michigan wins there will be at least a share between Michigan, Indiana, and possibly Michigan State and Ohio State if they win as well over Northwestern and Illinois respectively. On the bubble, Iowa is the only team that has something still to prove, and all they can do this weekend is not lose to Nebraska and wait for the Big Ten tournament. The bottom three seeds in the tournament are set with Nebraska, Northwestern, and Penn State, but everything else is up for grabs right now.
Games of Note:
Indiana at Michigan - Sunday 4:00pm ET - The game that determines everything else. If Indiana wins the Big Ten regular season title and 1-seed are theirs alone. If they lose, they'll split with at least Michigan.
Northwestern at Michigan State - Sunday 6:00pm ET - Michigan State will need to root for their hated rivals Michigan for this game to have significance. If Michigan beats Indiana, Michigan State can share the regular season title with a win here.
Illinois at Ohio State - Sunday 12:30pm ET - What a weird weekend, Ohio State fans will also be rooting for their bitter rivals Michigan to win. If Ohio State wins here and Michigan knocks off Indiana, they'll also be sharing the regular season title.
Nebraska at Iowa - Saturday 2:21pm ET - Yes, the time on this game is currently set as 2:21. But the more significant factor here is that Iowa needs to win to keep any at large hopes alive.
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In the Mountain West, there is less to be decided here. New Mexico has already clinched the regular season outright championship and top seed in the tournament. On the bubble field, Boise State has a big opportunity with a home game against San Diego State. A win will give them a solid at large profile and a good chance at being in the tournament field, but a loss will require them to do something impressive in the Mountain West tournament. No seeds are set in the tournament yet except for New Mexico at the top and Nevada at the bottom.
Games of Note:
San Diego State at Boise State - Saturday 3:30pm ET - Boise State looking for a win to enhance their at large profile. This win would give them a strong chance to be in the NCAA Tournament regardless what happens in the conference tournament.
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The Pac-12 could still go a number of directions. California's regular season is done with a 12-6 conference record. UCLA and Oregon currently sit tied above them at 12-5 and wins by either one would guarantee at least a share of the regular season title. If they both lose, however, it opens the door for Arizona to jump into the mix as well with a win and as many as four teams could share the regular season title. There is not much to be decided on the bubble, as the only real case - Arizona State - I think is decidedly out at this point. But with a win over Arizona today and a deep run in the Pac-12 tournament could potentially join the discussion again. No seeds have been determined anywhere in the conference and all games this weekend will cause those to fall into place.
Games of Note:
Oregon at Utah - Saturday 2:30pm ET - A win for Oregon would clinch at least a share of the Pac-12 regular season title and the 1-seed in the Pac-12 tournament. They would win outright if UCLA also lost. A loss here would open the door for UCLA to win outright, or for a logjam at the top of the conference.
UCLA at Washington - Saturday 2:00pm ET - They have exactly the same scenario as Oregon, as a win would guarantee at least a share of the regular season title, but they would also need Oregon to lose in order to get the 1-seed in the Pac-12 tournament. If both win UCLA would be the 2-seed.
Arizona State at Arizona - Saturday 4:30pm ET - Arizona needs this win to keep any opportunity for a share of the regular season title alive, while Arizona State needs this win to keep any opportunity of an at large bid alive.
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The SEC has been decided at the top as Florida is the regular season champion and the top seed for the SEC tournament. After that it isn't so clear. Missouri is the only other team that should feel safe about making the tournament, and a number of bubble teams here have been just about written off. Kentucky will need to beat Florida, Ole Miss will need to win at LSU, Tennessee will need to beat Missouri, and Alabama and Arkansas may be written off already, but they'll need to cling to their tiny hopes with wins over Georgia and Texas A&M respectively and need a deep tournament run. Every single seed is still to be determined this weekend except the top seed, and all games will have an impact there.
Games of Note:
Florida at Kentucky - Saturday 12:00pm ET
Missouri at Tennessee - Saturday 4:00pm ET
Ole Miss at LSU - Saturday 1:30pm ET
Texas A&M at Arkansas - Saturday 2:00pm ET
Georgia at Alabama - Saturday 4:00pm ET - Kentucky, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Arkansas, and Alabama need a win to keep their at large hopes alive. Any losses in these games will require a deep tournament run, and possibly the automatic bid. There are varying levels of desperation, but none of them really have any room for error.
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Everywhere else:
Florida Gulf Coast at Mercer - Saturday 12:00pm ET - The first team to be granted an automatic berth in the NCAA Tournament comes here. Winner of this game will be guaranteed a spot in the tournament field.
Murray State vs Belmont - Saturday 7:00pm ET - Automatic bid number two handed out in this game as the winner is guaranteed a spot. If Murray State wins, we also have our first potential bid thief and first real bubble case as the discussion will begin whether or not Belmont deserves an at large.
Cornell at Harvard - Saturday 5:30pm ET - If Harvard wins here, they're guaranteed a one game playoff with Princeton at worst, and would take the automatic bid outright if Princeton lost anywhere else along the way. But a loss for Harvard here would allow Princeton to take the automatic bid if they were able to win out.
Princeton at Brown - Saturday 6:00pm ET - This game does not end Princeton's season, but they'll need a win to keep pace with Harvard before their season does end on Tuesday night. If Princeton loses here and Harvard wins today, the Ivy League is settled with Harvard taking the automatic bid.
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Three new conference tournaments begin today as the America East, Colonial, and Summit conferences get under way.
The first two rounds of the America East tournament are held in Albany, New York, home court of the fourth seeded University at Albany. The Championship Game will be held at the home court of the highest remaining seed, but this set up appears to give Albany a bit of an advantage in the quarterfinals and semifinals. There are nine teams in the conference, but Boston University was ineligible for the conference tournament as they are leaving the conference after this season. The America East Conference elected to enforce a rule barring departing members from postseason conference tournaments, so Boston University is ineligible to receive the automatic berth to the NCAA Tournament. There will only be one representative from the conference in the NCAA Tournament as no teams are in the running for an at large bid. Stony Brook will enter the tournament as the top seed and favorite, but as always, every team is alive until they lose during the tournament.
My Predictions:
No team in this conference has an especially prolific offense. Stony Brook leads the conference in points per game, but only with 68.3 over the season. The tournament will likely come down to defense, and that is where Stony Brook's advantage stands out. They are a solid defensive team, holding conference opponents under 50 points seven times this season. The impact game in this bracket could come in the semifinals, with Albany potentially getting a home game with top seeded Stony Brook. That may be the best chance to unseat the top seed, as Stony Brook would get the championship game on their home court should they get there. Both Vermont and Hartford have beaten Stony Brook this season, but in both cases it was road games for Stony Brook. I think Stony Brook's defense will propel them through this tournament and into the NCAA Tournament.
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The Colonial Tournament is held in Richmond, Virginia at a neutral site. It is a conference that has had some at large contenders in the past, but there aren't any in this year's crop of teams and only the tournament winner will make it to the NCAA Tournament. Four of the eleven teams in the conference have already been eliminated from contention as Old Dominion and Georgia State are barred from the tournament by the conference because they are leaving the league, and UNC-Wilmington and Towson are ineligible for postseason play due to low Academic Progress Ratings. That leaves only seven schools still standing with a shot at the automatic bid before the tournament even begins. Northeastern finished at the top of the conference thanks to an impressive start to the conference season, but the automatic bid could go to any one of the seven teams.
My Predictions:
Northeastern started conference play very strong at 12-1 through their first 13 games. But they've been slipping near the end of the season, as they have lost three of their last five and required overtime to win in two others, and their regular season finale was a home loss to last place Old Dominion. I see an early exit for Northeastern here, with either George Mason or Drexel knocking them off in the semi-finals to advance to the final. On the other side of the bracket, Delaware is my pick to run the table and take the automatic bid. In their last twelve games they have only lost twice, and their only loss in the past eight games has been by a single point. The early round game to watch in this tournament is the potential second round match up between Delaware and James Madison, as I think the winner of this game will be the one taking the automatic bid at the end.
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The Summit League tournament is held in Sioux Falls, South Dakota at a neutral site. Like the others beginning today, this conference will only have one representative in the tournament, and they will have to win this tournament to get in. Nebraska-Omaha has already been eliminated from contention as ineligible for the postseason due to a transition period from Division II, so the other eight teams in the conference are left to fight for a single bid. South Dakota State and Western Illinois shared the regular season title, with South Dakota State taking the top seed by tiebreaker. But the regular season is now over and everyone is on the same level for the next few days, and everyone is alive until their next loss.
My Predictions:
South Dakota State led the conference in offensive numbers this season with 74.2 points per game, while Western Illinois was at the bottom of the conference with only 60 points per game. Rather than struggling, this is actually a testament to how good Western Illinois' defense has been over the season. Six times this season they have held opponents to 40 points or less. It is not the prettiest basketball but it has been very effective for them this season. Despite the low point totals, they do shoot the best percentage from the field and from three in the conference. This should help when they face a high powered offense, and I think it will be the deciding factor if the championship game pits them against South Dakota State's offense. For this reason I think Western Illinois will take the automatic bid in the conference. Oakland in the four seed is a team worth watching, as they have Travis Bader who could catch fire against anyone at any time. He currently is fifth in the entire country in scoring, and could keep Oakland in any game in this tournament by himself. North Dakota State also could make a run, but I have a hard time seeing them get by Western Illinois because in the two meetings against them this season they only averaged 39 points per game. The game to watch will be the final if it does indeed put South Dakota State and Western Illinois together, but I think Western Illinois rides its defense the entire way to take the automatic bid.
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Check back tomorrow for a look at how the results of today change the outlook moving forward, and feel free to comment with any thoughts or predictions of your own.
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