Conference Tournament Previews - A10, ACC, Big 10, Big Sky, Big West

We are in to the final stretch.  The final conference tournaments kick off today, and with yesterday's eliminations we are down to 152 teams remaining alive for a bid either through automatic bids from their conference tournament, or at large hopefuls.  Yesterday's games saw us welcome Bucknell to the elite list of teams guaranteed a spot in the field, we welcome Boise State to the stressful life of a bubble team with no more games to play, and a number of teams to the popular list of "eliminated."  Those eliminated yesterday include:  Providence, Seton Hall, Stanford, Air Force, SMU, Fresno State, Oregon State, Nicholls State, Norfolk State, Ball State, St Johns, Rice, West Virginia, Lafayette, South Carolina, Central Arkansas, North Carolina Central, Southern Cal, Grambling State, Miami (OH), Wyoming, Marshall, TCU, Rutgers, Auburn, and Washington State.  Check out the countdown to 68 to see who is still alive for a bid, who has clinched a bid, and who is done playing on the bubble.  Also check out the conference tournaments tab for an up to date look at all conference tournaments to date.  No championship games tonight, but plenty of games to watch as we are certain to see some bubble teams fall.  

Boise State At Large Profile
A win last night over San Diego State likely would have clinched it, but they fell short and now Boise State is left to play the waiting game, root hard for favorites...you know, typical bubble activity.  Lets take a look at how their chances stack up:

RPI - As of Thursday morning, it is at 44.  That is certainly a respectable number and tournament worthy, although there have been plenty of teams in the past miss with RPI's in the 40s.  It's no guarantee but its a good place to stand when you're on the bubble.

SOS - Not so good here.  They get a huge boost from playing in the Mountain West to get the total number down to 61, but the Non-conference Strength of Schedule is up at 215.  That number would ideally be lower, but they may be able to fall back on a strong conference just a bit.

History - To be honest, there are a ton of teams that fit a profile like this - decent RPI, good wins in conference, not much out of conference, etc, and overall, it goes both ways.  There are a number of teams that make the field and a number of teams that get left out.  So much depends on that year and the other bubble teams.

Good Wins - A strong win on the road at Creighton and three big wins at home in conference look good.  That gives them four wins in the top 50, a better number than some other bubble teams can say.

Bad Losses - A road loss at Utah and a road loss at Nevada are damaging at 150+ RPI losses.

The Verdict - Based on their overall profile, I think they're IN.  Four good wins compared to two bad losses, a winning record in a strong conference, and a good RPI seems like plenty in their favor.  As long as a lot of other teams still playing don't go on deep runs, or as long as there isn't an influx of bid thieves the final few days, I think they'll be in the field.

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The final conference tournaments begin today in the Atlantic 10, ACC, Big 10, Big Sky, and Big West.  Hit the jump for the final previews and predictions in these conference tournaments.

The Atlantic 10 conference tournament takes place neutrally at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York.  A number of teams here would be candidates for an at large bid should they fail to take the automatic bid from the tournament.  Saint Louis, VCU, and Butler should be in the field no matter what their performance in this tournament is, while La Salle and Temple may be in danger of dropping out if they can't win at least once in the tournament.  One win would likely be enough for either one, and a loss wouldn't eliminate them.  They would just be a bit nervous until Sunday.  A team like Xavier may be able to sneak back into the discussion if they can make a run to the final, but most likely every other team here will need the automatic bid in order to make the field.

My Prediction:

I don't see any unexpected teams making a run in this tournament.  With the exception of Temple (lost to bottom teams in the conference early in conference play, but has since turned it around and won seven straight) the top five teams in this conference have primarily beat up on each other.  I think we'll get to the semifinals with the best teams in the conference.  All due respect to La Salle, as someone had to drop out of the top 5 and miss the semi-finals, and I think Butler will be able to take care of business this time around.  La Salle got a one point win the last time they played on their home court, but a neutral court should favor Butler.  Saint Louis has been red hot to end the season, losing only once in their last thirteen games, and that took overtime on the road.  They have looked like the best team in the conference and I expect them to prove that in the tournament.  I like VCU to win the rematch with Temple, this time on a neutral court, to make the final, but Saint Louis is the pick to take the automatic bid on the back of a defense that regularly holds teams in the 40's and 50's.

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The ACC Tournament is held at a neutral site in Greensboro, North Carolina.  Four teams - Miami, Duke, North Carolina, and NC State - are already assured of an at large spot if they can't win the title, while Virginia is the only real bubble team.  Maryland could still potentially make a bubble push with a run to the final, but that would only get them into the discussion, I don't think it would be enough to get them in still.  I think Virginia will need to win at least once to feel better about their chances, but a loss wouldn't write them off.  Everyone else in this conference will be playing for that automatic bid.

My Predictions:

Duke took a bit of a hit this season when Ryan Kelly went down injured.  They still played well, but there was a noticeable difference in the team.  But, he is back now and this team has not lost a game he has played in this season.  They should ride that record to the final.  On the other side, Miami has struggled at times this season, but not enough to cost them the outright ACC title.  However, they limped into it down the stretch, losing three of their final five games.  NC State has had struggles of their own this season, but they have the talent to take advantage of a team when they're down.  I like NC State to get by Miami to reach the final, but in the end Duke has the best offense in the conference, shoots almost 42% from three, and with Ryan Kelly back should take the conference championship game.

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The Big Ten tournament is held in Chicago, Illinois on a neutral court.  Widely considered the best conference in college basketball, eight teams come into the tournament with at large hopes.  Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Michigan all will be in the tournament, and despite some bad stretches in conference play, both Illinois and Minnesota will be as well thanks to terrific non-conference performances.  Iowa is the only wildcard here, 20 wins and .500 in conference is impressive, but they just missed on a couple big wins and their non-conference schedule was pretty weak.  They may need to at least reach the semifinals, but as long as they don't lose in the first round they should be in the discussion.  Everyone else will need the automatic bid.

My Predictions:

Indiana is difficult to play with because they do so many things well, as you'd expect from a top team in the country.  My completely unbiased opinion thinks it will be a good game, a close game, but ultimately an Indiana win over Michigan in the semifinals.  But my also equally unbiased opinion still thinks despite the seeds, these are the two best teams in the conference when they play at their full potential.  The other side of the bracket I have a hard time picking between these two teams, for reasons other than my personal fandom.  I could see either team winning here, but I'm giving the edge to Michigan State over Ohio State in a defensive battle, but ultimately Indiana is the best team here and I think will rightfully take the Big Ten title.

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The Big Sky conference tournament is held on the home court of top seeded Montana.  Obviously this will give Montana an edge as they will have to lose on their own court to miss out on the automatic bid.  This is something they have only done once this season, and not at all in conference.  Only one team will get into the tournament from this conference, as there are no at large contenders here.  Four of the teams have already been eliminated, as only the top seven teams from the regular season make the tournament.  This leaves Idaho State, Portland State, Eastern Washington, and Northern Arizona out.  After the opening round, the teams are reseeded for the semi-finals, so Montana will be guaranteed to play the lowest remaining seed.

My Predictions:

Montana and Weber State have been the best teams in this conference all season.  Between them they have only lost one game to the other nine teams in the Big Sky.  There should be no question these two teams are the ones to reach the final.  Weber State shoots the ball better than anyone in the country at 50.8% from the field, and on the season each team has beat the other once, each on their home court.  Ultimately, I think that is what will determine this conference.  Montana playing on its home court should have a slight edge over Weber State, and will use it to take the lone bid for the Big Sky.

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The Big West Tournament is held at a neutral site in Anaheim, California.  Only one bid will be coming out of this league this season, going to the winner of this tournament.  Two teams have already been left out of the field, as UC Riverside was ineligible for postseason play this year, and Cal State Northridge did not qualify as only the top 8 teams in the conference make the tournament.  Long Beach State will be the favorite as the top seed, but until they lose they are all alive to claim the automatic bid.

My Predictions:

Defense has been the biggest factor in the conference this season.  The best offensive teams - Cal State Fullerton, Cal State Northridge, and UC Davis - have been left at the bottom of the standings due to their inability to defend, while Long Beach State and Pacific have been able to win games with their defense and sit at the top of the standings.  I would expect that rule to carry over into the tournament as well, as defense will propel Pacific and Long Beach State to the final.  In that game, I like Pacific to take the automatic bid.  They are coming into the tournament on a four game winning streak, including a 20 point win over Long Beach State in the season finale.