Part two of our conference analysis of this year's season to date we're looking at all of the "Big" conferences. Not all in size, but all in name - the Big 12, Big East, Big Sky, Big South, Big Ten, and Big West. See part 1 in the archive on the right, and a list of all teams in the Countdown to 68 above.
The Big 12 has been shaping up to be quite a battle at the top this year. But on the other end TCU, Texas Tech, Texas, and West Virginia will all need the conferences automatic bid if they want to make the tournament. They will all have the opportunity though, as all ten teams make the Big 12 tournament. The tournament will take place March 13-16 with the automatic bid being handed out on ESPN on March 16.
At Large Contenders:
Kansas went through a little cold spell, but they are still very much in contention for a 1-seed. Their loss to TCU may hold them back though. Winning out and taking the automatic bid in the Big 12 will keep them in the discussion for sure, but losing again may resign them to the 2-line at best.
Kansas State has surprised some people this season, as they are tied with Kansas at the top of the Big 12 standings. At this point they are just playing for the best seed possible. They would love the automatic bid, but they don't need it to make the field.
Oklahoma State has had a very good season to date. An early season loss to Virginia Tech is the only blemish on their profile, and a win over Kansas on the road is especially impressive. Much like Kansas State, this team is just playing for seed now.
Oklahoma has quietly had a very solid season. Losses to Stephen F Austin and Arkansas aren't terrible, and wins over Kansas and Oklahoma State are impressive. They currently have a top 20 RPI and its hard to imagine them missing the field. But with games remaining against three of the four bottom-feeders in the conference, it would be best not to go cold now. As long as they don't drop multiple games in that stretch, the automatic bid for them should merely be a luxury. We should see them in the tournament.
Iowa State was so close to a signature win against Kansas. Close to the point the conference admitted the refs got the play that allowed Kansas to send it into overtime wrong. How often do you see that? But in the end, they couldn't hold on in overtime and the result is the only thing that matters. They do have wins over Kansas State and Oklahoma, but also bad losses to Texas and Texas Tech. They could have used a signature win, and now would be a bad time to start a losing streak. However, if they can pick up another win over Oklahoma or Oklahoma State and avoid losing to West Virginia they should be ok. That automatic bid sure would be a nice way to forget the Kansas game though.
Baylor is running out of time to right the ship. At one point this team would have been solidly in the field without the automatic bid. Now they might need it. Losers in six of their last eight, and early season losses to Northwestern and Charleston are bad. Their marquee win over Kentucky isn't so impressive anymore. They're clinging to life with their win over Oklahoma State. A winning streak would help to end the season, as home games with Kansas State and Kansas are still to come, but they also have to avoid the bad losses that could come with trips to West Virginia and Texas. Taking the automatic bid from this conference would help. Depending how they finish the season, they might need it.
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More after the jump
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The Big East is always a good display of basketball, and this year is no different. A number of teams can make plans to play in the tournament, although some of them will still need to work for it. Fourteen of the fifteen teams in the conference will play in the conference tournament, with only Connecticut missing it due to Academic Progress Rate violations. They will also be ineligible for an at large bid due to these violations. With the automatic bid up for grabs, South Florida, DePaul, Seton Hall, Rutgers, and Providence will need it to make the NCAA tournament. The conference tournament will take place March 12-16, with the championship game on ESPN on March 16.
At Large Contenders:
Georgetown leads the way so far, and may be considered a dark horse for a 1-seed. The loss to South Florida certainly doesn't help, but there aren't any other bad losses, and wins over Syracuse, Louisville, and Marquette look great. Wins the rest of the way and taking the Big East auto bid would give them a strong case for a top seed.
Marquette has a slew of good wins including Syracuse, Georgetown, Wisconsin, and two over Pittsburgh, but also a bad loss to Green Bay. They are mainly playing for their seed at this point. They have room to fall if they drop any games, but getting the automatic bid from the conference would give them a great seed in the tournament.
Syracuse has hit a bit of a rough patch, dropping three of their past five games. They don't have any bad losses, and an impressive win over Louisville on the road. They're playing solely for their seed at this point, but if their skid continues it could be a very disappointing seed, but if they can turn it around and win the conference tournament they'll be in good position going into the tournament.
Louisville is in a very similar position to Syracuse, but aren't in the middle of any skid. They have won six of their last seven and have no bad losses. As long as they don't let losses pile up to end the season they should be happy with their seed going into the tournament, and if they can win out including the conference tournament they still have a chance to end up with a 1-seed.
Notre Dame has had a solid season, but would like to forget a few losses to St Johns, St Josephs, and Providence. But they're nothing overly damaging, and Notre Dame is solidly in the field playing for their seed the rest of the way. There is certainly room for them to move up if they're the team that can take the automatic bid from the conference.
Pittsburgh has flown under the radar much of the season, but this is a very solid team with wins over Georgetown and Syracuse. A loss to Rutgers is the only blemish on their resume. They're another team that is playing for their seed the rest of the way, and also some room to move up if they can win the conference tournament.
Villanova has not exactly been the most consistent team this season. While they have great wins over Louisville, Syracuse, and Marquette, they have also lost to Providence twice, Seton Hall, and Columbia. The loss to Seton Hall coming right on the heels of a signature win over Marquette. They have two opportunities for more big wins over Pittsburgh and Georgetown, and they'll want to get at least one of them if not both. If they can't get anything from those games, they'll need to do something in the conference tournament to feel good, and taking the auto bid would be the best way to feel safe.
Cincinnati isn't in danger yet, but they need to turn something around quickly. Wins over Marquette, Pittsburgh, and Oregon help their case, and their worst loss is Providence, but losses in five of their last six doesn't look good heading into the tournament. If they can turn it around enough to get the automatic bid they'll end up with a decent seed, but if they can't turn it around they might be holding their breath on selection Sunday.
St Johns will need to finish the season strong if they want to get in without the automatic bid. Their best wins are Connecticut and Notre Dame, but they have some bad losses to Rutgers, San Francisco, and UNC Asheville. They'll have opportunities as the season ends with a road trip to Notre Dame and a home game with Marquette, but they will need to win out and have a good showing in the conference tournament to earn a bid, otherwise they should plan on winning the conference tournament if they want to dance.
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The Big Sky will be a one bid league regardless of who wins the tournament. No team in this conference has a win over any team anywhere in the RPI top 100, so if any of these teams want to make the NCAA tournament, they should count on winning the conference tournament. Seven teams will make it to the conference tournament out of the eleven in the conference, with only the top team getting a bye in the first round. While no one has officially been eliminated from contention, the bottom four right now are Idaho State, Portland State, Eastern Washington, and Northern Colorado. The rest of the conference in order of their current standings from top to bottom are: Montana, Weber State, North Dakota, Southern Utah, Sacramento State, Montana State, and Northern Arizona. Montana and Weber State have been the best of the conference so far this season, but until they are eliminated during Championship Week any of these teams is still alive. The conference tournament will take place from March 14-16, with the automatic bid handed out on ESPN U on March 16.
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The Big South will also only be getting one bid, coming from the automatic berth given in the conference tournament. All twelve teams in the Big South make the tournament, with the top two in each division getting a first round bye. The twelve contenders from the Big South by conference in order of current standings are: In the North - High Point, Campbell, VMI, Radford, Liberty, and Longwood. In the South - Charleston Southern, Gardner Webb, UNC Asheville, Coastal Carolina, Winthrop, and Presbyterian. High Point has clinched the top seed in the North, while Longwood has clinched the bottom seed in the North. To this point no other positions have been settled. The tournament will take place from March 5-10, with the championship game and automatic bid televised on ESPN 2 on March 10.
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All season long the Big Ten has been considered the best conference in college basketball, and at no point have they done anything to dispute that fact. All twelve teams will make the tournament with a chance at the automatic bid, and Penn State, Northwestern, Nebraska, and Purdue will need it to make the tournament. Penn State has clinched the bottom spot in the tournament. The conference tournament will take place from March 14-17, with the championship game on CBS on March 17.
At Large Contenders:
Indiana has been the favorite for much of the season and currently tops the Big Ten standings. They are playing for a 1-seed, and if they can at least share regular season title, winning the conference tournament would almost guarantee them a top seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Michigan State was neck and neck with Indiana for much of the season before their recent two game skid. They're still in the hunt for a top seed if they can win the rest of the way. If they lose again in the regular season, they'll need the automatic bid in order to get back into the discussion for the top seed.
Wisconsin is in great shape so far and still hunting for a regular season title. They are solidly in the tournament and have some room to improve their seed, but will want to avoid any bad losses in upcoming games against Purdue or Penn State. If they can win the Big Ten tournament it will give them a big boost to their potential seed.
Michigan is still fighting for a Big Ten regular season title and a 1-seed in the tournament. With home games still to come against Michigan State and Indiana they have an excellent opportunity to get both. As long as they don't slip up in road games against Penn State or Purdue they should remain in the top seed conversation. Losing twice before the tournament, however, would require the automatic bid in order to get back into the top line discussion.
Ohio State still has an outside chance at sharing the regular season title, but they will need quite a bit of help. They are mainly playing for seed at this point, but are solidly in the tournament field with no bad losses and wins over Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. As long as they avoid any bad losses the rest of the way they'll be in good shape. Win the conference championship and they'll be in very good shape.
Illinois hit a very bad stretch in the middle of conference play, dropping all the way to 2-7 at one point. Since then they've bounced all the way back to 7-8 and are solidly in the tournament field even if they're not back to .500 in conference play yet thanks to an outstanding nonconference resume. It would be hard to see them missing the tournament even if they lost the rest of the way, but they may be sweating on Selection Sunday if they did that. On the other hand, if they can win the conference tournament it would give them a very favorable seed.
Minnesota did basically the same thing as Illinois with an impressive nonconference resume, then hit a wall in the Big Ten. Is the Big Ten really this good? Or was it just a slump? It doesn't really matter, and it looks like Minnesota may have righted the ship with a massive win over Indiana at home. The computer numbers love Minnesota and it would be even harder to see them missing the tournament now that they have that Indiana win, but the three games they have remaining to finish the season would provide bad losses if they didn't take care of business, but realistically they would have to lose them all to be even remotely in danger. Again, like Illinois, the flipside is that if they can win the conference tournament they would certainly move up into a favorable seed in the NCAA field.
Iowa is the long shot of the Big Ten. They looked poised to make a serious push until they went to Nebraska and lost. They have wins over Wisconsin and Minnesota, but also losses to Nebraska, Purdue, and Virginia Tech. They probably need to go into Indiana and win if they want to make the tournament without the automatic bid, but if they win everything else and make a deep run in the Big Ten tournament it might be enough. But the only way this team could feel safe is to secure the automatic bid.
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The Big West has historically produced some pretty good teams for the tournament. This does not appear to be one of those years. This is a one bid league, going to the conference tournament champion only. Eight of the ten teams in the conference will make the tournament, although UC Riverside is ineligible for postseason play so only one other team will be left out of the tournament. The remaining contenders in order of conference standings are: Long Beach State, Pacific, Hawaii, UC Irvine, Cal Poly, UC Davis, Cal State Fullerton, UC Santa Barbara, and Cal State Northridge. The tournament takes place March 14-16 with the championship game and automatic bid handed out on ESPN2 on March 16. Long Beach State is the expected favorite, but the other eight are still alive.
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