There has been a lot of season so far. Almost an entire season so far. On one hand, it gives us quite a bit of insight to each team. On the other hand, there is a lot of information to go through. Take a look at the Countdown to 68 above for a full list of teams by conference. And without further ado, lets start taking a look at our contenders this year.
From the America East conference, our contenders in order of current RPI are: Stony Brook, Vermont, Albany, Hartford, Maine, New Hampshire, Maryland-Baltimore County, and Binghamton. What you may not know - currently at 11-4 and second in the conference, Boston University is ineligible for the postseason.
They will be joining the Patriot League next year, and a little known
rule in the America East allows the conference to bar a departing member
from postseason play. There isn't much else to say about these guys, this is a one bid league. No matter what happens the rest of the season, the conference tournament winner is the only one dancing. The remaining eight teams will compete for the automatic bid beginning Saturday, March 9, and you can watch the Championship on Saturday March 16 on ESPN2. Stony Brook will be the favorite, but until they lose all eight teams are in the hunt.
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The Atlantic 10 will be a lot of fun for the rest of the season. There will be multiple teams in the tournament from this conference. Pinpointing which ones is slightly more difficult. The conference tournament only takes the top 12 teams of 16 in the conference. At the bottom of the barrel, we can already rule Duquesne and Fordham out. Rhode Island isn't too far away from joining them either, as they will need to win out and get some help to stay in the top 12. Dayton looks likely to be the other team missing the cut, but have a couple games for wiggle room if they can somehow get on a run and hope for the best. Saint Josephs, Richmond, George Washington, and Saint Bonaventure are the teams that will need the automatic bid, but should have the opportunity at the bottom of the conference tournament. The tournament takes place March 14-17, with the championship game and automatic bid televised on CBS right before the selection show.
At Large Contenders:
Saint Louis leads the way in the A10 at this point, winners of 9 straight. They should feel good about their at large chances if they don't get the automatic bid. Wins over Butler (twice), VCU, and New Mexico are huge. Somehow they lost at home to lowly Rhode Island, but right now there is no reason to worry about missing the tournament.
Virginia Commonwealth has looked good in their first season in the A10. Very good. Aside from a road loss at Richmond, there isn't anything wrong with their profile. Early season wins over Memphis and Belmont are huge RPI victories, and if the season ended today there is no question they'd be in the field with or without the conference's automatic bid.
Butler is also having a solid debut season in the A10, although it is their non-conference play that stands out this year. Wins over Indiana and Gonzaga speak for themself, but they can also add North Carolina and Marquette to that list. At this point, Butler is merely playing to improve their tournament seed. They'll have there eyes on the automatic bid, but they don't need it, they're in.
La Salle has been a pleasant surprise this season. They knocked off Butler and VCU at the end of January to jump into the tournament picture, and haven't looked back since then. They'll want to finish the season strong though to make sure an early season loss to Central Connecticut State remains their only bad loss. If they avoid bad losses the rest of the way they shouldn't need the automatic bid, but they'd love to have it and are certainly capable of getting it.
Temple has a huge win over Syracuse to lean on, in addition to wins over Saint Louis and La Salle, but then they have a loss to Duquesne...at home...ouch. A home game with VCU would be a nice addition to the profile, and a win over Detroit would be a nice touch as well, but they'll want to make sure they don't slip against Rhode Island or Fordham. Like La Salle, they're certainly capable of taking the conference's automatic bid, but with a strong end to the season they shouldn't need it.
Xavier. What to say about Xavier. This team has lost to Wofford (thats really bad), Pacific, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, and Dayton. But they have also beat Butler, Temple, La Salle, and now Memphis. The losses alone are almost enough to keep them out, but the rest of their schedule gives them Massachusetts, Saint Louis, and Butler. If they can win those games they are all of a sudden
in a very good position. Short of that, they may need the conferences automatic bid.
Massachusetts almost certainly needs the automatic bid, but they're worth looking at almost simply because they don't have the god awful loss that seems to have plagued many of the other teams in their conference, and their RPI is respectable at 56. That said, losing to George Washington and St Bonaventure isn't good. A win over La Salle is nice, but they'll probably need to win out (would add Xavier and Butler wins) and have pretty good run in the A10 tournament if they want to have any shot at making it without the automatic bid.
Charlotte is in the same boat as Massachusetts. In fact I should probably just copy-paste what I just wrote for them. They don't have the really bad loss, but lost to George Washington, beat La Salle, etc. The only thing I can add is they already have a win over Butler, but they'll need more than that. If they win out, which would mainly be avoiding bad losses the rest of the way, and get a bit of a run in the tournament they'll have a case. But they'll want the automatic bid, its the only way they could feel safe on selection Sunday.
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The ACC always produces some good basketball, and this year should be no different. There will be story lines both at the top of the bracket and on the bubble. All 12 teams will make the tournament, and half of them will need the automatic bid to end up dancing. Virginia Tech, Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College, Georgia Tech, and Florida State aren't making the cut without winning the conference tournament. The tournament takes place from March 14 to March 17, with the championship game coming on March 17 on ESPN.
At Large Contenders:
Miami has a virtual lock on the ACC regular season title, the only question that remains for them is where they end up. Despite taking a step back against Wake Forest, they're very much in the hunt for a 1-seed, and taking the ACC automatic bid might be what it takes to get them there.
Duke may be behind Miami in the standings, but may have an edge on obtaining a top seed. The conference tournament will be big in determining the final seed Duke obtains, and the automatic bid would likely lock up a 1-seed.
North Carolina was at one time considered to be on the very edge of the bubble. Not so much any more. They would have to fall apart to miss the tournament at this point, but on the other hand, if they can get hot and take the conference automatic bid they'll be looking at some very favorable seeding.
Virginia. Wow. There are not many teams in contention that have this many bad losses, and no teams in contention that can say "hey, we lost to Old Dominion!" That's because no one loses to Old Dominion. But tied for third in the ACC and big wins over Wisconsin, North Carolina, and NC State, they're very much in contention. A win in their game coming up against Duke would be massive, but more importantly they HAVE to avoid any more bad losses. That includes upcoming road games against Boston College and Florida State. Winning out (including Duke) would likely get them in, or if they miss Duke and make a run in the ACC tournament they may be ok, but the ACC automatic bid would make a lot of people in Charlottesville feel better.
Maryland showed us in the span of a week how to make, and how to break, your profile. Three days after knocking off Duke, they travel to Boston College and pick up their first really bad loss of the season. Which is bad for Maryland because besides the Duke win, they beat NC State and...well, that's it. If they can avoid any more bad losses with upcoming road trips to Georgia Tech and Wake Forest, and get another profile making win over North Carolina before the end of the season they'll have a shot. Anything short of that, they'll need at least a big run in the tournament if they want to have a chance without the automatic bid.
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In the Atlantic Sun, eight teams will compete for the conference's automatic bid. This will be a one bid league regardless how the rest of the season turns out. The contenders for the automatic bid will be, in order of RPI: Florida Gulf Coast, Mercer, Stetson, North Florida, Lipscomb, USC Upstate, Jacksonville, and East Tennessee State. The remaining two teams in their conference have already been eliminated from any postseason contention. Northern Kentucky is ineligible for postseason play until 2017 as they transition from Division II, and Kennesaw State will miss the conference tournament by not finishing among the eight best eligible teams. Mercer will be the likely top seed in the tournament. Keep an eye on Florida Gulf Coast, as they have a very impressive victory over Miami earlier this season, but all eight teams are in the hunt until they lose in the tournament. The tournament will take place on March 6-9, with the Championship game televised on March 9 on ESPN2.
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Check back soon for the next batch of conferences, and please feel free to comment with any discussion on this year's tournament.
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